First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE event:

[RNS]

I/m pressed for time this afternoon...so this will be rather quick...

Axis of heaviest Snow: 50-100 miles either side of a line from Hagerstown MD to High point NJ then northeast to manchester NH.

First call Accumulations Mid-Atlantc and Northeast: (pick the location closest to you):

Mid Atlantic:

Hagerstown MD: 6-12" All snow.
Frederick MD: 5-10" Mainly Snow - period of icing possible.
Cumberland MD: 6-11" All Snow.
Roanoke VA: 5-10" All snow.
Westminster MD: 5-10" Mainly snow - period of icing possible.
Washington DC: 4-8" heavy snow to ice then back to snow.
Baltimore MD: 5-9" heavy snow to mix then back to snow.
Dover DE: 4-6" heavy snow to rain.
Wilmington DE: 5-9" Heavy snow to ice.

Northeast:

Philadelphia PA: 5-9" heavy snow to ice then back to snow.
Harrisburg PA: 10-16" Heavy snow.
Lancaster PA: 8-14" Heavy snow / Some mixing.
Allentown PA: 10-18" Heavy snow
Mount Pocono PA: 12-20" heavy Snow
Scranton/Wilkes-barre PA: 12-18" heavy Snow
Binghamton NY: 10-18" Heavy Snow
Newburgh NY: 12-20" Heavy Snow - Some mixing possible.
West Milford NJ: 10-18" Heavy Snow
New York City NY: Heavy snow to mix.
Albany NY: 12-18" Heavy Snow
Pittsfield MA: 10-18" Heavy Snow
Boston MA: 5-10" heavy snow to rain then back to snow.
Hartord CT: 8-14" heavy Snow - some mixing
Manchester NH: 10-18"

These totals w/b adjusted acordingly as we get closer to the event.

Right now the system looks like a repeat of Xmas 02 through and through with the only exception being that the cold air will hold once northwest of the major cities. places like Harrisburg...Scranton...Allentown and newburgh which saw breif mixing with the xmas event SHOULD remain as all snow throuh the main part of the event.

The cold high to the north (unfortunately for the major cities) should move out to sea fast enough at while the transfer of energy to the coast is taking place...precipitation changes to rain. a period of heavy rain is possible at the height of the event once south and east of PHL and DCA. Significant freezing rain is possible in the in cities themselves IF the cold air can hold below H95. The rain will change back to snow on the back side of the low as it winds up east of long island with additionl SIGNIFICANT (4"+) accumulations possible even to the coast.

This system WILL be colder than the Xmas noreaster even in spite of the departing high.

Keep In mind...these totals are preliminary and subject to change as we get closer to the event. Really...i/m not comfortable with releasing accumulations along these lines beyond 48 hours from the start of the event however due to the demand for such information...i/ll bite the bullet this time eventhough the potential for major error is EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS RANGE.

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey RNS what do you think accumulations here in Detroit, Mi will be we saw 6.4 inches on the 24-25 of December 2002? Thanks

[Anonymous]

I/m pressed for time this afternoon...so this will be rather quick...

Axis of heaviest Snow: 50-100 miles either side of a line from Hagerstown MD to High point NJ then northeast to manchester NH.

First call Accumulations Mid-Atlantc and Northeast: (pick the location closest to you):

Mid Atlantic:

Hagerstown MD: 6-12" All snow.
Frederick MD: 5-10" Mainly Snow - period of icing possible.
Cumberland MD: 6-11" All Snow.
Roanoke VA: 5-10" All snow.
Westminster MD: 5-10" Mainly snow - period of icing possible.
Washington DC: 4-8" heavy snow to ice then back to snow.
Baltimore MD: 5-9" heavy snow to mix then back to snow.
Dover DE: 4-6" heavy snow to rain.
Wilmington DE: 5-9" Heavy snow to ice.

Northeast:

Philadelphia PA: 5-9" heavy snow to ice then back to snow.
Harrisburg PA: 10-16" Heavy snow.
Lancaster PA: 8-14" Heavy snow / Some mixing.
Allentown PA: 10-18" Heavy snow
Mount Pocono PA: 12-20" heavy Snow
Scranton/Wilkes-barre PA: 12-18" heavy Snow
Binghamton NY: 10-18" Heavy Snow
Newburgh NY: 12-20" Heavy Snow - Some mixing possible.
West Milford NJ: 10-18" Heavy Snow
New York City NY: Heavy snow to mix.
Albany NY: 12-18" Heavy Snow
Pittsfield MA: 10-18" Heavy Snow
Boston MA: 5-10" heavy snow to rain then back to snow.
Hartord CT: 8-14" heavy Snow - some mixing
Manchester NH: 10-18"

These totals w/b adjusted acordingly as we get closer to the event.

Right now the system looks like a repeat of Xmas 02 through and through with the only exception being that the cold air will hold once northwest of the major cities. places like Harrisburg...Scranton...Allentown and newburgh which saw breif mixing with the xmas event SHOULD remain as all snow throuh the main part of the event.

The cold high to the north (unfortunately for the major cities) should move out to sea fast enough at while the transfer of energy to the coast is taking place...precipitation changes to rain. a period of heavy rain is possible at the height of the event once south and east of PHL and DCA. Significant freezing rain is possible in the in cities themselves IF the cold air can hold below H95. The rain will change back to snow on the back side of the low as it winds up east of long island with additionl SIGNIFICANT (4"+) accumulations possible even to the coast.

This system WILL be colder than the Xmas noreaster even in spite of the departing high.

Keep In mind...these totals are preliminary and subject to change as we get closer to the event. Really...i/m not comfortable with releasing accumulations along these lines beyond 48 hours from the start of the event however due to the demand for such information...i/ll bite the bullet this time eventhough the potential for major error is EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS RANGE.

This is JEB'S CALL...............


Dale City/Woodbridge will see possibly moderate snow at beginning with 1 to possibly 5 inches of snow, then change to sleet, ZR and possibly heavy rain before changing back to ZR, sleet then snow with a possible additional 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation.

If only the High would stay put longer than anticipated........then you can add 2 to 5 inches to my forecast.


I don't mind eating Crow, so long as its because Dale City/Woodbridge get hammered with 18 inches lol............

-SnowBlitzJEB

[wrkh99]

What about the South ?

[JCT777]

Those are some impressive snow numbers! I am hoping you are correct, as it would mean the chance for up to a foot of snow in my location (about 30 to 35 miles NW of Philadelphia).

[BlizzardNole]

I hope it turns out like you see at this point; I didn't think we had too much of a chance in central MD at this one.

Hey maybe if the cold high doesn't move off so quick it might be fun to watch your Cowboys at FedEx starting at 4:15 eh?

[Fishmn]

Hats off for a bold prediction. I just dont see the possibility of the high numbers especially in the Dover area. I'll take the 10-18" of heavy snow any day though. If we get even 1/3 of those numbers it will put us over 20" for the season and that aint bad for the middle of December.

[Anonymous]

I hope it turns out like you see at this point; I didn't think we had too much of a chance in central MD at this one.

Hey maybe if the cold high doesn't move off so quick it might be fun to watch your Cowboys at FedEx starting at 4:15 eh?

It would be really fun to watch the Cowboys slide in the snow and ice at FedEx. I'd like to see the 'Skins beat 'em too..........no offense to all the Cowboys fans here on this board lol...........

[Heady Guy]

RNS going out his own. I like his style. Best forecast I have seen for my area....for snow. I have read other discussions and they seem to go with a wamer solution and more inland track.

[Colin]

Wow, 10-18" for me...AWESOME...keep up the great work RNS!

[dwang]

RNS, quite bullish on those totals. I'm not saying that you're wrong, but don't you think that WAA from the SE will play a large and important role in keeping those snow accumulations down?


Dave

[RNS]

Hey RNS what do you think accumulations here in Detroit, Mi will be we saw 6.4 inches on the 24-25 of December 2002? Thanks

The detroit area could see a few inches.

What about the South ?

Mainly a rain Situation.

First of all I dont care if i was the only forecaster calling for significant snowfall inland...weather IS NOT a public opinion poll. You can take this at face value...if you like it great...if not then who gives i poop. This is the same damn thing we went through last storm and preceeding the winterforecast and I ASK YOU...WHO HAS BEEN CORRECT THUS FAR???

ANSWER: It sure as hell isn/t your local TV wx jackass or TWC....

I put the forecast on here for you...you may disagree if you like...i dont care.

[wrkh99]

Wow, 10-18" for me...AWESOME...keep up the great work RNS!

So nice to see Colin back . Now go respond to the TN / Kentucky thread

[RNS]

Im going to put this VERY bluntly(like it or not) ...forecasters (and especially your local TV mets) Need to grow some balls...b/c saying "Oh 1-2" maybe three inches but then again i really dont know right now". DOES NOT CUT IT,,, forecast verification talks and BS walks...

[wx247]

Im going to put this VERY bluntly(like it or not) ...forecasters (and especially your local TV mets) Need to grow some balls...b/c saying "Oh 1-2" maybe three inches but then again i really dont know right now". DOES NOT CUT IT,,, forecast verification talks and BS walks...

Agreed... what do you see for the Southern Plains this weekend or have you analyzed that area?

[Anonymous]

RNS...I'm putting $ on your forecasts, keep them coming, as well as updates. You were on the $ last storm, and your entire winter outlook is $ so far.

I should be looking at 6-12 inches this storm, we are a half hour due south of Hagerstown on I-81.

[RNS]

RNS...I'm putting $ on your forecasts, keep them coming, as well as updates. You were on the $ last storm, and your entire winter outlook is $ so far.

I should be looking at 6-12 inches this storm, we are a half hour due south of Hagerstown on I-81.

thats right...though if mixing occurs...you may get less...not by much though.

[RNS]

Im going to put this VERY bluntly(like it or not) ...forecasters (and especially your local TV mets) Need to grow some balls...b/c saying "Oh 1-2" maybe three inches but then again i really dont know right now". DOES NOT CUT IT,,, forecast verification talks and BS walks...

Agreed... what do you see for the Southern Plains this weekend or have you analyzed that area?

accumulations of 4-8" should be the rule...a few higheramounts in the 10" range are possible.

[Heady Guy]

RNS :

You have done very well with this storm so far...keep up the work.

[Lowpressure]

RNS- Like your style. Your past record gives you a lot of clout. NWS in D.C keeps saying some sort of winter event but for now will leave wording as rain/snow area wide until details are clearer. You are a true forecaster, not just reading others and falling in safety zones. GOOD WORK.