Cold vs. Warm Atlantic SST Regime vs. FL Major Landfalls

[wxman57]

I'd put together a few graphics showing the differences in Florida major hurricane landfalls during weak North Atlantic thermohaline circulation decades (cold Atlantic SST regime) vs. strong thermohaline circulation patterns (warm Atlantic SST regime). As you can see in the images below, Florida appears MUCH more prone to major hurricane landfalls when the Atlantic heats up. Dr. Chris Landsea has found that the periods of warm and cold Atlantic SSTs last from 20-40 years. We're now in the start of potentially a very long warm Atlantic regime. We've had 33 major hurricanes since 1995, and only Opal struck Florida (none on the Peninsula). The last warm regime started in 1926 and lasted through 1969. Who knows how long the current regime will last? 2025? I've also found that the major hurricane landfalls in Florida tend to lag a bit behind the start of the warm regime, timed to a certain pattern in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We're in that "favorable" PDO pattern now.\

Oh, and I'm only showing the parts of the track when each storm was at MAJOR hurricane strength.

So, let's see what happens when it's colder than normal in the Atlantic for decades:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/FLcoldregimeA.gif">

And again from 1970-1994:
<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/FLcoldregime.gif">

Now let's see if there is any difference when the Atlantic heats up... Yeah, I THINK I can see a difference there! Imagine what the effect on the U.S. economy would be if the next 20 years are like the graphic below. Would any insurance company be left intact?
<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/Flwarmregime.gif">

[bahamaswx]

Ouch, doesn't look like the Bahamas does too well in the warmer periods either.

[Rainband]

RUTT RO RELROY!!!!

[weatherluvr]

This could apply to the entire east coast; in fact, it's subjective as to when the warm phase started kicking in. Some say it started at the beginning of the '90's so Andrew may fall right in to the start of that.

In fact, the only major EC hit between 1966-90 was Hugo (not counting Gloria as a major).

As far as insurance companies being in trouble-- bet on it. If the 1926 Miami storm hit today, the price tag could approach $100B.

I can just imagine the media outlets when a storm of this type hits, talking about global warming, etc. without any thought being given to these normal cycles.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of Atlantic SSTs vs. average (0 line). The warm-up clearly started in 1995.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/atlanticssts.gif">

[Derek Ortt]

Florida was hit by a major hurricane during this period, Opal in 1995. In your plot, you placed Opal with the 1970-1994 storms. However, 1 out of 33 is not a large number.

That being said, the frequency of strikes on NC and Canada have increased significantly during this latest warm period, which seems to have started in 1995. I do not research TC climo as Chris Landsea does, so I would not know the reasons behind the increased frequency in these two areas and not for Florida

[wxman57]

Florida was hit by a major hurricane during this period, Opal in 1995. In your plot, you placed Opal with the 1970-1994 storms. However, 1 out of 33 is not a large number.

Oops! How the heck did Opal sneak in there? I removed it. Actually, I'd noticed that Eloise was missing so I added it, but in fact, I think I just named Eloise "Opal" when I made the chart.