Thanks RNS!! Great job!! I wish you would move to DCA (Even tho our region is so very bad about snow; its so hard for us to really get clocked by the really big storms, but I wish you would move here and become our official weather forecaster. You've got the knowledge AND the guts.
SnowBlitzJEB
First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE event:
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
DT wrote:Incorrect assessment RNS. I think your forecast could happen but your views on the ecmwf are not accurate.
6 " for DOVER? on se winds?
NOT....
RNS wrote:Ok...well i ask you this...how has the EC preformed with regard to the track of the system thus far???
Oh wait let me answer...POORLY!
I mean c/mon it just caught onto the fact that the secondary would be a coastal low the last umpteen runs had it inland...while the ETA...GFS...GGEM and UKMET have basically been consistent.
maybe i could have cut back accumulations on the delmarva a bit more than what i outlined (and this is only my first call)...though i still think a period of heavy snow occurs with the WAA before the column warms enough so that precipitation changes to ZR/PL/RA.
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Guest
No biggie -- I view your forecast as Gutsy very good in some areas
and it Just a FIRST idea forecast right? I am sure you will refine it too .
BTW RNS I am sure You have heard or been told of the chatter about you and storm 2k etc over at WWBB.
Ignore it dude. Post there is you want to or dont.
BUT you do what YOU want to do.
NEVER EVER NEVER EVER.... let someone else pick the battle field.
NEVER.
and it Just a FIRST idea forecast right? I am sure you will refine it too .
BTW RNS I am sure You have heard or been told of the chatter about you and storm 2k etc over at WWBB.
Ignore it dude. Post there is you want to or dont.
BUT you do what YOU want to do.
NEVER EVER NEVER EVER.... let someone else pick the battle field.
NEVER.
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chadtm80
Ya RNS knows better then to let garbage like that get to him-
Anonymous
DT wrote:No biggie -- I view your forecast as Gutsy very good in some areas
and it Just a FIRST idea forecast right? I am sure you will refine it too .
BTW RNS I am sure You have heard or been told of the chatter about you and storm 2k etc over at WWBB.
Ignore it dude. Post there is you want to or dont.
BUT you do what YOU want to do.
NEVER EVER NEVER EVER.... let someone else pick the battle field.
NEVER.
Thanks for the heads up on it...i havent heard the details but i know quite a bit has been said...and its like I/ve been saying all along...weather is not a public opinion poll. I made the same type of call last time form this range and was basted in poop until it became so obvious the system was going to behave (for the most part) as i outlined...even a blind mule could see it.
Im hoping to upodate in the mid-afternoon tomorrow (after the complete 12Z package).
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chadtm80
Re: First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE even
Don - good point. That storm goes down in my memory banks as one of the great ones - 25" at my house, 12 mi N of ALB. Also having it hit Xmas morning was memorable. The intensity was sustained for an unusual amount of time, but most of the snow fell in about 12 hrs and the "bulk" of the storm lasted well less than 24 hrs. I was a bit skeptical when I woke up and saw only spotty precip and even some sleet mixed in - precip was on and off until late morning.
The amazing thing is that we did it again 1 week later, with 20" more Jan 3/4. It did rain a bit and warm up for a day on 12/31 - 1/1. Less intense but longer duration. PD2 "only" left me with 12" and basically the rest of the winter was cold with dribs and drabs of snow.
I would have bet decent $ that we wouldn't see a repeat this winter - but I measured 21" (18" at ALB) last weekend. And it rained today. Sunday would be about a week since the big storm. Uncanny setup to repeat history?? That's why I'm skeptical that we'll see much more than about 6" this Sunday. Purely based on probability - but we're already 2/3rds the way there!
The amazing thing is that we did it again 1 week later, with 20" more Jan 3/4. It did rain a bit and warm up for a day on 12/31 - 1/1. Less intense but longer duration. PD2 "only" left me with 12" and basically the rest of the winter was cold with dribs and drabs of snow.
I would have bet decent $ that we wouldn't see a repeat this winter - but I measured 21" (18" at ALB) last weekend. And it rained today. Sunday would be about a week since the big storm. Uncanny setup to repeat history?? That's why I'm skeptical that we'll see much more than about 6" this Sunday. Purely based on probability - but we're already 2/3rds the way there!
donsutherland1 wrote:Thanks for sharing your preliminary ideas, RNS. I, for one, greatly appreciate the effort and also agree with a number of the sentiments you expressed throughout this thread.
Best wishes.
Don
P.S. for those who do not recall how furiously it snowed in some places during the XMAS 2002 nor'easter, the following is a photo from Albany, NY, which picked up more than 20" of snow:
<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/122502-3.jpg">
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He was here for a few months, and i know him on aim and he said that he didnt like the fighting on here and that "they(you on wwbb) are not deserving of my(his) forecasts"
first of all thats BULLSHIT - I dont operate that way...
frankly i dont give a flying crap who insults who or whos ego is bigger than anothers its all nothing but a bunch of weenieish BS. im here for other reasons.
Second of all (and DT im sure you will agree) when the Kids dont like the forecast it/s amazing the lengths they will go to in order to make you look like an ass. Im sure i would be their best friend if i forecasted over 40 inches for their respective locations. LOL...
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chadtm80
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RNS wrote:He was here for a few months, and i know him on aim and he said that he didnt like the fighting on here and that "they(you on wwbb) are not deserving of my(his) forecasts"
first of all thats BULLSHIT - I dont operate that way...
frankly i dont give a flying crap who insults who or whos ego is bigger than anothers its all nothing but a bunch of weenieish BS. im here for other reasons.
Second of all (and DT im sure you will agree) when the Kids dont like the forecast it/s amazing the lengths they will go to in order to make you look like an ass. Im sure i would be their best friend if i forecasted over 40 inches for their respective locations. LOL...
Those same kids don't have the b**** to make their on forecasts either and stand by them.
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Don't let the kids bug you too much. Some of us really appreciate your input, whether it's here or elsewhere. You're dead nuts right about being a kiddie weenie's best friend when you predict 2 ft of snow for them. It's amazing, but remember they're juvies. The amazing thing is the wild rejoicing over a simple "forecast", not even verification or the the event itself.
RNS wrote:He was here for a few months, and i know him on aim and he said that he didnt like the fighting on here and that "they(you on wwbb) are not deserving of my(his) forecasts"
first of all thats BULLSHIT - I dont operate that way...
frankly i dont give a flying crap who insults who or whos ego is bigger than anothers its all nothing but a bunch of weenieish BS. im here for other reasons.
Second of all (and DT im sure you will agree) when the Kids dont like the forecast it/s amazing the lengths they will go to in order to make you look like an ass. Im sure i would be their best friend if i forecasted over 40 inches for their respective locations. LOL...
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Fishmn
This stuff is stupid. The guys over at WWBB for the most part love your forcast. It fits right into their desire to get blasted with a blizzard every time a storm is in the forcast. The argument started when one or two questioned your Met credentials and your age. I dont care as you offer good analysis reguardless. I would like you to post there too, but I'm finding that I read this board just as much. Keep up the good work.
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