Gary Gray's Storm Forecast

Winter Weather Discussion

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montrealboy
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Gary Gray's Storm Forecast

#1 Postby montrealboy » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:27 pm

http://www.millenniumweather.com/winter/cast2.html

Image

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We'll leave it at that for now. In closing, though, let me point out that the 00Z Fri ETA is rolling in as I write this. It is colder, with a stronger high pressure than the 18Z run... but that is only through 36 hours (as far in as it is right now). This may not continue through the remainder of the forecast period, but, if it does, we may need to go for an even more wintry forecast. Let's wait and see, but the point is, while the general forecast is pretty high confidence, there are several minor details we're still trying to work out. And just as I finish writing this, the new ETA is in even a bit further and continues, mainly (except in the far SW - across SW VA/NW NC) colder. So, let me emphasize one last time that the snowfall map above is subject to change and, if current trends continue, it could get particularly more snowy... especially in inland areas southeast of the major snowfall axis.
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Heady Guy
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#2 Postby Heady Guy » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:30 pm

I don't put much stock in him, but some folks do.
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#3 Postby RNS » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:42 pm

The 0z ETA actually bring the center of the SFC low to near cape may at 72hrs. however considering the ETA warm bias...i dont think we should take it at face value yet. the high also trended stronger on this particular run. The ETA is much further west with the surface low than even the european (not to mention weaker at the 72hr mark).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

lets wait for the GFS and others...
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