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Valkhorn · #1 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:30 pm

The 18z GFS is now bombing severe arctic air into the Nation for the last week of the month starting with a decent storm system around Christmas. I'm waiting to see if this is a trend or no (although with the GFS it's mainly for entertainment purposes).

I started to look at the latest European, and for next Wed. it is making the storm much colder than the model consensus is showing, as well as showing better signs of impending arctic air on the horizon. With all seriousness the Canadian air is seriously starting to build in most models by next week and looks poised to come down with the Aleutian low just sitting there for a week plus.

Troughing is also taking place near Japan and like a bullwhip it should be in the states by the 24th. What's interesting is that the models originally forecast this artic surge to be for most of the East, but if some model runs are any indication the West may get in on it too.

I don't think most models though will truly jump on this until 3 days or so away. Models will trend in and out until then.

But I do know this: snowpack is building further and further south, and with this storm and the next on Wednesday (which I think will be a little colder than this weekends') we could have a decent coverage of snow across the US by Christmas.

Valkhorn · #2 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:56 pm

The latest run of the AVN is very cold too. I'm not sure if that's the same as the GFS and MRF though...

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 10:58 pm

Valkhorn wrote:The latest run of the AVN is very cold too. I'm not sure if that's the same as the GFS and MRF though...

Valkhorn, the AVN and MRF outputs were combined and the GFS was born ... so the answer to your question is yes.

#4 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:10 pm

GFS would indicate a coupled jet pattern...notice the first speed maximum exiting out over new england and the second maximum rounding the base of the h3 trough...

Once again i would watch the left front Quad of the jetstreak rounding the base of the trough for very strong UVM and enhanced precipitation.

Valkhorn · #5 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:12 pm

Valkhorn, the AVN and MRF outputs were combined and the GFS was born ... so the answer to your question is yes.

*doh*

Well then I'll wait for the Euro and model consensuses in a bit... my guess is something is just now showing on the 7 day plus prognostics and agreement may be imminent on this judging by the rest.

It's a pity there aren't many long range models from which to get a good sampling of data from.

#6 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:12 pm

in a weird way this is starting to look like the january 6-7 2002 event.

Valkhorn · #7 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:14 pm

There's what the GFS is now hinting at. For the record this is a complete 180 from 12z, but two days ago this trend was there for a few runs.

#8 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:21 pm

its the GFS...and at 372hrs...in addition to the cold bias...we/ll see.

I m going to be in FL over XMAS so enjoy it it IF the GFS is correct. It doesn/t mean poop for me.

There is a major arctic surge coming around Xmas...however time will tell if heights actually do indeed lower to 492 DM over minnesota as the PV drops into the midwest.

Valkhorn · #9 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:26 pm

Exactly. The question isn't if or when, but how cold

I wouldn't be surprised though to see the sub 500 lines in the US by then though, nor would I be surprised to see them colder.

#10 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:28 pm

all in all its a brutally cold / dry pattern...

Valkhorn · #11 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 11:38 pm

Definately. Translating 492dm into temperatures that's only a high of around -12F in MN... all in all that's not that cold so a gut feeling says it could be a lot colder. A high of -20 or -25 in northern MN is cold, and -12F is chicken feed for them

I wouldn't be surprised if some 480's showed up later in a few other models by this time period.

#12 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 9:37 am

It does look as we will have a nice cold spell over the week

aep · #13 Postby **aep** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:25 pm

Valkhorn wrote:Definately. Translating 492dm into temperatures that's only a high of around -12F in MN... all in all that's not that cold so a gut feeling says it could be a lot colder. A high of -20 or -25 in northern MN is cold, and -12F is chicken feed for them

I wouldn't be surprised if some 480's showed up later in a few other models by this time period.

I sure hope that cold spell doesn't come true...if that's how cold it will be in MN, I don't even want to know how cold it will be here.

JCT777 · #14 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 2:54 pm

aep wrote:I sure hope that cold spell doesn't come true...if that's how cold it will be in MN, I don't even want to know how cold it will be here.

Too cold to go outside, that's for sure! :eek:

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