Ohio Valley Thoughts. Newxgirl/Don etc? My own as well.

[Guest]

As per the usuall This place is a very tough call. Problem beeing the first low and the interaction of the "Coastal Low". Models are back and forth here in these parts as well as usuall.

NWS guys in Cleveland think 4-6 for my location and county to my south which is covered by ILN thinks 2 - 5 inches. Then you look to the county to my east and they say 6 - 10 which is covered by Pittsburgh. Rounding that all out i would go with 6 as per NWS and surrounding offices.

Models i have seen go today anywhere from 3 to as much as 12+ inches when adding the "Fluff Factor".

Idiots on TV here says about 2 - 3 inches for just about the whole state of Ohio.......

I think everyone sees the point i am making already. My problem is this is constint for here. I wouldnt be so agrivated as i am now if it was something that happend on rare occasions but to have this sort of disagreement just about every time is flat out very annoying. Something surely is wrong. Im hoping perhaps one of either RNS, Newxgirl, Don, DT can give me a answer as to why such a dilamma for forecasting this area/Region?????Hell i admit i am having my own problem here trying to make a forecast for this area which is why i am posting this. Everything i have seen says to go with 6 - 10 for here with the set up we have and storm track as well but the models say every thing is possible and yet we are a day out from start time.

Thanks for whatever you all can offer. And please everyone i would appericate if those who i asked to only reply. Thanks.

[donsutherland1]

KOW,

My estimate for the Mount Vernon area is 3"-6" (the higher end of the range will probably be east of Mount Vernon). I believe as the storm rapidly intensifies, the precipitation will be pulled toward the east--to snowlovers, it will seem as it is "sucked" out of the Ohio Valley.

Of course, I could be wrong but this would largely depend on the storm tracking more to the west than I anticipate.

For me in the NYC area, the storm will be like a date (with winter) that gets off to a promising start (as the snow will come down hard for a time) only to disintegrate into a nightmare (of pounding rain) after 2"-4" of snow. The memories of that promising start will be washed away and any backlash snow will probably not do much to heal the wounds inflicted by the cruel east wind.

[Anonymous]

[quote="donsutherland1"]KOW,

My estimate for the Mount Vernon area is 3"-6" (the higher end of the range will probably be east of Mount Vernon). I believe as the storm rapidly intensifies, the precipitation will be pulled toward the east--to snowlovers, it will seem as it is "sucked" out of the Ohio Valley.

quote]

Yep, that Area may be dry slotted, wouldn't be the first time.

[polarbear]

Here's what I'm currently going with:

http://albums.photo.epson.com/j/ViewPho ... 003413&f=0

The QPF is beginning to look similar for the map area, for the Eta and GFS (12/12Z runs). The map is basically an average of the two. There is still some uncertainty on where exactly the freezing rain may occur and how far northeast. Since freezing rain looks likely for parts of WV and VA on the map, I was uncertain on any snow accumulations there, thus no shading. Both models show a swath of 0.75 to 1.00" of QPF from south-central KY, northeastward through western WV. I currently think most of that will remain liquid in KY, but some significant icing is possible farther northeastward into parts of southeast OH and WV. I'm not sold on the idea of a more significant surface low moving into the Ohio Valley (per Eta), but if that were to happen, the precipitation area would probably have to be shifted northwest of the current forecast.

The snow looks to move into parts of IL and IN during the afternoon and evening on Saturday, then farther northeast into the rest of IN, OH and KY in the late evening and overnight. Some of the 3-5" shaded area may also see icing from freezing rain, which could significantly affect snow accumulation. Snow accumulation farther northeast, especially in the 5-8" zone is highly dependant on when the system transfers to the east coast and how much precip had is in progress over that area at the time.

Because of recent forecast history and with the storm being about 24 hours away, I feel about 50 to 60 percent confident in the forecast.

[NEwxgirl]

KOW,

My estimate for the Mount Vernon area is 3"-6" (the higher end of the range will probably be east of Mount Vernon). I believe as the storm rapidly intensifies, the precipitation will be pulled toward the east--to snowlovers, it will seem as it is "sucked" out of the Ohio Valley.

Of course, I could be wrong but this would largely depend on the storm tracking more to the west than I anticipate.

For me in the NYC area, the storm will be like a date (with winter) that gets off to a promising start (as the snow will come down hard for a time) only to disintegrate into a nightmare (of pounding rain) after 2"-4" of snow. The memories of that promising start will be washed away and any backlash snow will probably not do much to heal the wounds inflicted by the cruel east wind.

Once the transfer of energy to the new surface low along the coast takes place, the precipitation sheild across the ohio valley will begin to weaken as a new area develops across the northeast and mid-atlantic in response to the re-development. So Don's accumulations look basically on track for the ohio valley, at least as far as i am concerned.

[Anonymous]

Ohio Valley forecast very tough! Accuweather's mets, Joe Lundberg and JB are preaching on big snow for the Ohio Valley though.

[Dr Spectrum]

Ohio Valley forecast very tough! Accuweather's mets, Joe Lundberg and JB are preaching on big snow for the Ohio Valley though.

Where exactly in the OV? I'm up in Medina Co.
BTW: Are there any links to a video of these 2 talking about the storm? I remember watching one that I found on WWBB. I know it's a pay site but this video was free.

[donsutherland1]

You might want to see if its on this page:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/video_index.asp?partner=accuweather

[Dr Spectrum]

You might want to see if its on this page:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/video_index.asp?partner=accuweather

That was it. The one I was looking for (Ken Reeves/Job B) on this link you posted was the pay version. I don't know how I got the other but I'll keep looking at the other links on this page.

Thanks Again!