My Preliminary Discussion regarding the 2004 Tropical ...

[Stormsfury]

Atlantic Season ...

All in all, the Tropical Atlantic Season for 2004 looks to be normal to slightly above normal ... More details below on the Current Tropical Weather Page (follow the navigational toolbar ...)

http://www.stormsfury1.com

[cycloneye]

Mike I found IMO the numbers somewhat low considering that we are now in an active cycle of hurricanee seasons from 1995 with the 1997 and 2002 being the exceptions as el nino was strong. But as you said you will evaluate all the factors and in mid may you will change the numbers depending on what you see from now to then.I have 12/6/2 on my preliminary thinking also on a warm ENSO but we have to look at the factor as it evolves in the next few months to see in reallity if ENSO will be a big factor or not.

[Stormsfury]

Mike I found IMO the numbers somewhat low considering that we are now in an active cycle of hurricanee seasons from 1995 with the 1997 and 2002 being the exceptions as el nino was strong. But as you said you will evaluate all the factors and in mid may you will change the numbers depending on what you see from now to then.I have 12/6/2 on my preliminary thinking also on a warm ENSO but we have to look at the factor as it evolves in the next few months to see in reallity if ENSO will be a big factor or not.

That's the thing ... we don't know exactly what El Niño and the PAC Signals are going to strengthen enough or not to overwhelm the ATL signals at this time ... For the sake of uncertainty, I decided after reviewing everything, including Dr. Gray's analog years to play the numbers game ...

Just because that we are in an era or period of increased hurricane activity does not mean that every single year will be above average (or vice versa) ... Basically, we ARE in uncharted territory ... never before have we seen as many storms in this time frame (1995-2003) ever (or have we?...just not documented) ..

Like we talked about in PM a month ago, I have my reasons not to bullish on my numbers until we close in on the start of the 2004 season ...

SF

[wxman57]

Studies have shown that a weak to even a moderate El Nino has little effect on the tropics. Strong El Nino years like 1983/1997 show a pronounced decline in activity (4 in 1983, 7 storms in 1997). With all other factors pointing toward increased activity, and at the very MOST a very weak El Nino forecast, we could easily see another 13-15 storms.

And I think Florida to the Carolinas is at high risk of a Cat 3/4 landfall in 2004.

Oh, and one other thing, SF, your web page (2004 outlook) doesn't work in Netscape 7.1. The table with past storms is blank.

[Stormsfury]

Studies have shown that a weak to even a moderate El Nino has little effect on the tropics. Strong El Nino years like 1983/1997 show a pronounced decline in activity (4 in 1983, 7 storms in 1997). With all other factors pointing toward increased activity, and at the very MOST a very weak El Nino forecast, we could easily see another 13-15 storms.

And I think Florida to the Carolinas is at high risk of a Cat 3/4 landfall in 2004.

Oh, and one other thing, SF, your web page (2004 outlook) doesn't work in Netscape 7.1. The table with past storms is blank.

Ahhh... the FRAMES only work with Internet Explorer ... Netscape at best, has limited capabilities with certain features, although it is a very good browser...

For the direct link to the number of storms, hurricanes, and majors directly ... (I need to update it after I install Office onto this system) and the numbers include the UPDATED AOML/HURDAT numbers from 1851-1910.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... otals.html

[Stormsfury]

And yes, I did use your saved images of Peter ... the first ones that I saw with the eye feature, and it's quite possible that Peter may be upgraded to a hurricane briefly ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

Added an addendum and a more detailed in-depth analysis of just WHY I went with my thoughts and which analog years are being cited for 2004's upcoming Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

SF

[RNS]

Mike I found IMO the numbers somewhat low considering that we are now in an active cycle of hurricanee seasons from 1995 with the 1997 and 2002 being the exceptions as el nino was strong. But as you said you will evaluate all the factors and in mid may you will change the numbers depending on what you see from now to then.I have 12/6/2 on my preliminary thinking also on a warm ENSO but we have to look at the factor as it evolves in the next few months to see in reallity if ENSO will be a big factor or not.

Luis...its like i have been saying for some time now. the long-term fluctuations in the PDO and ATC cycles will dictate the decadal and multi-decadal TC development tendencies in the atlantic.

That is to say when one has the PDO in a long term positive phase...and the ATC is within the long-term weak cycle...the east pacific hurricane seasons will see greater TC development than the atlantic seasons...

reverse the signals (Colod phase PDO and ATC strong cycle)...one has the tendency for below average E PAC TC activity and above AVG ATL activity.

[Stormsfury]

Another UPDATE: Forgot to add 1995-1996 seasons ... and SOME similarites to 2002 ... however, solar flux is NOT as strong in 2004 as 2002 was ...

However, the 1996 is DRASTICALLY different than the progged 2004 conditions ...

SF