REALITY check on WED-THU ; RAINSTORM for I-95 !!!!

[Guest]

FOLKS


I see some talks/forecasters are really going ape with the MECL (major east coast low) on Wednesday into Thursday.

I urge caution. The event WILL be a HUGE Low BUT this event has NO chance of neing a Blizzard for New England and the NE- MA I-95 cities

It will be a rain event... I know 2 other wll known Mets/ forecasters will bang this event and hype it.... but for I-95 its all rain.

Look snowstorms happen over the NE and MA b/c of particular patterns. They dont happen b/c you WISH them to happen.

A negatively tilted trough over the East coast also has NO cold High to the north there is No 50/50 Low and no -NAO and NO Polar Vortex.... so this negatively tilt trough will FLOOD the northeast with warm air AHEAD of the trough

The GFS is way over doing it again as it alwasy swings from one extreme to another with no consistency.

If one wishes to put all their eggs in the GFS which is the ONLY model that makes a 970 low by developing a severe negative Tilt.... they can. But the GFS at 0z and 12z all shove 850 Tt of +6c or warmer into most of New england and there is NO hint at all of Any cold air.

As a professional meteorologist I find it hard how some can see the situation for Thursday as a possible blizzard in the I-95 corridor. I guess I know where that sort of perspective is coming from but this event has little chance of being such a storm.

That is not to say that wed- Thursday you will not be a huge event up in northern New England and the eastern end of St. Lawrence Valley.... It will. But the fact is the pattern is completely wrong for such event as a blizzard for I-95 ...never mind the strong S winds the lack of cold air source... 850 temperatures at plus 5 as far north as Boston POU and RDG.

Remember we are talking about I-95 cities NOT ABE not BGM NOT POU

[Anonymous]

That does it! I'm moving to Binghamton!! I want snow!!




Jeb

[Anonymous]

Those of you in waterlogged towns along I-95 and in places with snowpack that will see rain on Thursday------Better finalize your 'move to higher ground' plans by Tuesday.

But then, perhaps we will luck out. I only got a half inch of rain today. Maybe this thing will be a fish or a very fast mover.



Waterlogged JEB

[Guest]

Very good DT point to which i very much agree with. Bad timming with all the snow on the ground. But either way she is looking to be a rain event from DC to Portland Maine. Heck can just say o the Canadian Line on i95. This is a Apps/Far inland and west of apps snowstorm well west of the i95 Cities.

[hurricanedude]

Glad you think you can predict a storm with such accuracy for a storm not even developed yet DT...
Give me the # to call to learn how to pin point an event 3-5 days out..

[Guest]

Glad you think you can predict a storm with such accuracy for a storm not even developed yet DT...
Give me the # to call to learn how to pin point an event 3-5 days out..

I hope you NOTICED where he said the word "CAUTION".............Perhaps you can do better??????

[Stormsfury]

Glad you think you can predict a storm with such accuracy for a storm not even developed yet DT...
Give me the # to call to learn how to pin point an event 3-5 days out..

Mike, DT is one of the best in the business ... and right now with the data that I see supports DT's views STRONGLY...and I'm inclined to agree strongly.

SF

[Lehigh]

I STRONGLY agree with ya................................

[Colin]

I love DT...I love em!

Did he say NOT ABE?????

Remember we are talking about I-95 cities NOT ABE not BGM NOT POU

NICE...DT, are you thinking ABE could have a nice snow event from this? :o

[Guest]

Given some of YOUR poor hurricane forecast and thought processes I am not surprised at your attitude.

LOL!!!!

Pinpoint? Maybe you need a reading program....? All I said was that snowstorms in the northeast US occur with certain synoptic patterns. This is a fact. This is why paul Kocin is famous.

That pattern is NOT in place for wednesday and Thursday. Yes it will be a BIG low yes it will be an intense low... yes it may even END as snow over places such as IPT BGM ALB BTV BDL ...

But your reasoning is wretchedly bad...I am NOT the one talking about possible blizzard conditions in the I-95 corridor.

Why dont you think forecasting a Blizzard 4 days out for I-95 is PIN POINTING? Dont you think you criticims should be aimed at those making such an extreme statement?

Glad you think you can predict a storm with such accuracy for a storm not even developed yet DT...
Give me the # to call to learn how to pin point an event 3-5 days out..

[hurricanedude]

Given my hurricane predictions??????
I never posted on where when or where any hurricane was going, must have me confused with someone else....anyway that comment was not meant to get your panties all twisted up, I just mean computer models go back and fourth constantly and for you to say with 100% confidence something is or isnt going to happen is obserd. I.E weekend before last the models suggested snow for NC and VA and new england not much....well guess what NC and most of VA got nothing...New England got buried, get where Im coming from? Im not judging your forecast ability, just telling you when it comes to nature you can not say something will or will not happen for sure.....thats all....again sorry you get all upset at ones opinion...and I still dont know what the heck you were talking about me forecasting hurricanes, Im an AF Pilot not a weather man....
anywho have a good one and enjoy your models...LOL

[roarusdogus]

Given my hurricane predictions??????
I never posted on where when or where any hurricane was going, must have me confused with someone else....anyway that comment was not meant to get your panties all twisted up, I just mean computer models go back and fourth constantly and for you to say with 100% confidence something is or isnt going to happen is obserd. I.E weekend before last the models suggested snow for NC and VA and new england not much....well guess what NC and most of VA got nothing...New England got buried, get where Im coming from? Im not judging your forecast ability, just telling you when it comes to nature you can not say something will or will not happen for sure.....thats all....again sorry you get all upset at ones opinion...and I still dont know what the heck you were talking about me forecasting hurricanes, Im an AF Pilot not a weather man....
anywho have a good one and enjoy your models...LOL

Computer models have little to do with it. It is simple pattern recognition. No matter what a model says, you can't beat the "old fashioned" way of forecasting. There are certain set ups that bring different outcomes to different parts of the world. The set up this week will NOT allow a snowstorm in the I-95 corridor.

[hurricanedude]

OK OK OK.........Im through.......can we let it rest please?

[SnowWeatherMan]

Remember we are talking about I-95 cities NOT ABE not BGM NOT POU

Is that a statement for the Wed-Thurs storm or just a general statement? Cause I'm expecting mostly rain with maybe some snow on the back side once the low gets cranking here by ABE.

[Colin]

DT told me less than 2" for ABE ...