Day 8-10 EURO screaming BIG DOG....
woof woof
possible big hit for many.... nice confluence zone in PJ
nice - NAO torugh axis in STJ is neutral over mississippi valley
some ridging on west coast
no SE ridge Low hts..
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest
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WOOF WOOF big dog DEC 23 -- The DT MECS still looks goo
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Stormsfury
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Stormsfury
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- Posts: 10549
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- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
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Stormsfury
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Finally, the Euro has gotten this in it's forecast window. I hate having to rely on the GFS for potential storm systems past 10 days since the GFS is horrible at long range winter storms.
Now that the Euro has got it (which I think is pretty accurate) maybe the GFS will get it's act together later.
Most definately something is on the horizon
Now that the Euro has got it (which I think is pretty accurate) maybe the GFS will get it's act together later.
Most definately something is on the horizon
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Stormsfury
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WEATHERGURU
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- Location: Wyandotte, Mi (15 miles south of Detroit)
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Stormsfury
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WEATHERGURU wrote:Looking at the 00Z GFS it shows a pretty mild time around the week of Christmas. Just last night they had it much colder and stormier. Is the GFS that horrible compared to the EURO? Do you think There is a chance of some snow for us here in Detroit for on Christmas? Thanks...
Well, using the op GFS out past 84 hours is a dangerous proposition ... let alone 10 days out ...
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Stormsfury
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Valkhorn wrote:Hahaha, if he get's one sniff at arctic air he'll go for it. He even agrees with the GFS if it's in the right direction, but don't we all... IF the GFS is in the right direction at that long range.
In fact the GFS has been doing horribly past one week's forecast.
Yep, on both accounts ...
JB sells subscriptions with hype and explaining possibilities ... even if it has only a 0.00001% chance of verifying and 2) the I-95 Corridor Bias ...
I will admit ... the discussions that I've seen posted by some (I do not subscribe or even bother to hit the AccuWx site for obvious reasons), but he can whip out a very exciting discussion for the most boring weather ... he's good with words ...
SF
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Strangely enough I have a Accuweather pro account but I never get billed. I got it two years ago, and have had it ever since.
JB has improved his track record a lot over the last couple of years though and he's beginning to nail more and more things.
Of course the term "caveat emptor" applies wherever you go.
As to the GFS and it's warm crap, I don't buy it since the pattern does not dictate that. The pattern points to the right direction, and until the last minute the GFS will not catch on. It's pretty decent within 48 hours of something, but beyond that it's miserable.
Models really sometimes have to be taken with huge grains of salt. Look at the patterns, judge for yourself, and if you know a model is wrong and out on a limb, dismiss it
JB has improved his track record a lot over the last couple of years though and he's beginning to nail more and more things.
Of course the term "caveat emptor" applies wherever you go.
As to the GFS and it's warm crap, I don't buy it since the pattern does not dictate that. The pattern points to the right direction, and until the last minute the GFS will not catch on. It's pretty decent within 48 hours of something, but beyond that it's miserable.
Models really sometimes have to be taken with huge grains of salt. Look at the patterns, judge for yourself, and if you know a model is wrong and out on a limb, dismiss it
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WEATHERGURU
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Actually I'll place my bets on the table with this. I would be surprised with this pattern if we DIDN'T get any arctic surge of air at the end of this month. I would also be very suprised if the GFS past day 4 or 5 was even halfway right. This warm surge of air it's forecasting is rediculous - especially for the extremity of it.
Two days ago the GFS had a trend, but today proves it was just chance that it got the pattern right. Today it's totally wrong, and tomorrow it may be back to the opposite and brutal cold, who knows, and who cares out that far. The pattern will tell you what is going to happen
Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you...
Two days ago the GFS had a trend, but today proves it was just chance that it got the pattern right. Today it's totally wrong, and tomorrow it may be back to the opposite and brutal cold, who knows, and who cares out that far. The pattern will tell you what is going to happen
Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you...
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You know the more and more I look at it, the scarier it becomes... That's no ridge in spain, that's a trough, and one HELL of a trough. Plus the trough in Japan, the wonderful Aleutian Low (bells should be ringing already with that), and JB's classic trinket "the trough east of the caspian" can only point to one thing...
...as we say in the south that ain't no warm air down the road...
Wow... the blocking over the Atlantic too. That is really going to pile things up if that verifies.
Who would have thought, we had a textbook category 5 Hurricane Isabel a few months ago, and two textbook Nor'Easters within a week or two of each other. To me this pattern is textbook for arctic intrusion.
Simply marvelous...
...as we say in the south that ain't no warm air down the road...
Wow... the blocking over the Atlantic too. That is really going to pile things up if that verifies.
Who would have thought, we had a textbook category 5 Hurricane Isabel a few months ago, and two textbook Nor'Easters within a week or two of each other. To me this pattern is textbook for arctic intrusion.
Simply marvelous...
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Guest
Stormsfury wrote:Damn, you're fast, DT ... before I could even update my own site ...
And the timing of the system could very well indeed make many happy just in time for Christmas ...
Only way this will make me happy is if it does the IMPOSSIBLE.........Right up the east slopes of the Apps from the Gulf.................Meaning a 12+ event for ME.
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Anonymous
What would make ME happy is a nice coastal storm, with just the right track and enough cold air to give me 12 to 24 inches of snow, then I want that Siberian Intrusion to hit me extremely hard with 60 mph winds and highs only around ZERO degrees with blowing and drifting of the snow, and I'll be outside with a shovel in my hands and a fervent prayer in my heart for more snow, high winds and extreme cold.
As I always say,
BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SnowBlitzJEB
As I always say,
BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SnowBlitzJEB
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