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It's right after this first storm system develops in the Southeast and bombs out over New England ... weak impulses riding the 500mb jet, including a potent little disturbance on Wed night/Thursday morning of this week could enhance upsloping and may spread a few flurries outside of the mountains in TN, AL, and GA ...
Funny discussion from Birmingham, AL today...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST MON DEC 15 2003
CORRECTED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT CLARIFICATION
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BIRMINGHAM WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. NOTHING TO FRET OVER...BUT SOME BRIDGES AND OVER PASSES IN THE SAME MENTIONED AREAS MAY BE A LITTLE ICY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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.DISCUSSION...NO TIME FOR CHIT-CHAT TODAY...I'M RUNNING WAY BEHIND. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW. FOLKS CAN EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY AS TEMPS DROPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX NORTH AND EAST OF BIRMINGHAM. FOLKS AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTGOMERY MAY EVEN SEE "A"..."ONE"...SNOW FLAKE. DON'T RAID THE STORES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES HAVING SOME ICY PATCHES ON THEM WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO START SPREADING THE "BE CAREFUL DRIVING INFO".
THINGS KINDA COOL OUT AFTER THAT...GET IT? EXPECT MAINLY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON MONDAY.
Excerpt from FFC ...
.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM RADIATIONS COOLING. EXPECTING A MILD DAY TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COLD FRONT PRESSES EASTWARD INTO GA TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING WITH IT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY OVERNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE MORNING LOWS. UPPER ENERGY BEHIND FRONT WILL SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING BIT OF MOISTURE AND THUS EXPECT FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTH GA...MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS A FEW NORTH METRO AREAS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS AS SECONDARY SPOKE OF UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH ACROSS TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHICH ONCE AGAIN COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
OVERALL...MILD TUESDAY BEFORE MORE WINTER-LIKE WEATHER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
And lastly, I hate it when CHS teases us here ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
145 PM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.PUBLIC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. WILL STILL CARRY SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN MOST ZONES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN
TOMORROW AS HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A WARM SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S IS LIKELY WITH MAYBE A SPOT 70 SOMEWHERE. THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUD BEGINS TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AS THE CURRENT COLORADO STORM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. WEAK THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE MAIN VORT CENTER AND LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z WED. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS...BUT FORECAST QPF IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. WIND FIELDS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS 38UNIT VORT CENTER MOVING ACROSS...WITH 45KT 925 MB WINDS FORECAST BY THE ETA THU 00Z. WIND ADVISORIES ARE A POSSIBILITY WED AFT AND EVENING ESPECIAlLY IF WE CLEAR OUT PRIOR TO SUNDOWN. HAVE LEANED TO MORNING HIGH TEMPS ON WED WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. STEADY OR SLIGHTLY
FALLING TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE A FAIR BET. WILL DEFINITELY FEEL BRISK WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
IN THE EXTENDED...TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP THE AREA TEMPS BELOW NORMAL LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH ON WED WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION...S/W TROF WILL DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT SHOT OF HIGH PRES. THICKNESSES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT TRACK OF STORM SHOULD KEEP ANY OF THIS LIGHT SNOWY MIX WELL TO OUR NORTH. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SFC HIGH DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA ONTO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS COOL AND DRY DAYS 3-8.
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I picked up on that disturbance last night on my prognostic outlook featured on my website and the possibilities ...
