Larry: "Unlike recent storms, the system projected to develop over the East Coast is likely to stick around a while. Become situated as a cA vortex in QC, the broad gyre will keep the Midwest and Northeast colder than average through Day 10. "
Especially given tonight's EC goes completely along with what GFS has been showing for days now and blowtorches US west to east with mild pacific air for at least next 2 weeks, bottling anything resembling cold air way up in Canada. Winter as we knew it this month ends just in time for winter to begin. Rainy storm next week followed by even bigger warm up. Next cool down possibly 2nd week of January.
Tomorrow morning Joe B.and Larry will likely throw in the towel for rest of December and concede the model zonal flow solution. Not good for snow or cold lovers in East!
Cosgrove may regret saying this in his AM discussion:
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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weathafella
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Re: Cosgrove may regret saying this in his AM discussion:
wxw wrote:Larry: "Unlike recent storms, the system projected to develop over the East Coast is likely to stick around a while. Become situated as a cA vortex in QC, the broad gyre will keep the Midwest and Northeast colder than average through Day 10. "
Especially given tonight's EC goes completely along with what GFS has been showing for days now and blowtorches US west to east with mild pacific air for at least next 2 weeks, bottling anything resembling cold air way up in Canada. Winter as we knew it this month ends just in time for winter to begin. Rainy storm next week followed by even bigger warm up. Next cool down possibly 2nd week of January.
Tomorrow morning Joe B.and Larry will likely throw in the towel for rest of December and concede the model zonal flow solution. Not good for snow or cold lovers in East!
I disagree with your assessment and in fact the upper air hints and teleconnections support mighty cold beginning probably New Year's Week. We've had these solutions before.
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Anonymous
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stormraiser
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Stormsfury
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Ji's got a good point here and weathafella ...
First of all, the EC is eventually going to pick up on the undercutting of the SBJ, for one. Secondly, the teleconnections are there, NEG NAO, POS PNA, and ... NO ridging over Spain. One EC bias to hang back SBJ energy too long ...
For the overall pattern we're setting up in ... SFC to upper just doesn't match up ...
SF
First of all, the EC is eventually going to pick up on the undercutting of the SBJ, for one. Secondly, the teleconnections are there, NEG NAO, POS PNA, and ... NO ridging over Spain. One EC bias to hang back SBJ energy too long ...
For the overall pattern we're setting up in ... SFC to upper just doesn't match up ...
SF
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Stormsfury
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Winnipesaukee-2
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Winnipesaukee-2 wrote:king of weather wrote:Thats it Ji! :grab: !!!!!! LOL. NOPE Huff no banning here!!!!!!Board could use a little spice as it is
!
No banning huh? Well see about that. I'm pure terror.
I don't think this board could have survived last nights horror show on WWBB. Great fun. BTW - I'm more impressed with your potential snow tommorrow night. It'll be a close call that's for sure. I have a creepy suspicion that NWP isn't going to handle the energy diving around the @ss end of the trough and to the east coast particularly well. This rather innocuous looking system could really surprise. Check out the convection firing off FL coast.
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Winnipesaukee-2
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VortexMax wrote:I don't think this board could have survived last nights horror show on WWBB. Great fun. BTW - I'm more impressed with your potential snow tomorrow night. It'll be a close call that's for sure. I have a creepy suspicion that NWP isn't going to handle the energy diving around the @ss end of the trough and to the east coast particularly well. This rather innocuous looking system could really surprise. Check out the convection firing off FL coast.
That is some definitely some heavy duty looking convection. I'm always up for a surprise.
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VortexMax wrote:Winnipesaukee-2 wrote:king of weather wrote:Thats it Ji! :grab: !!!!!! LOL. NOPE Huff no banning here!!!!!!Board could use a little spice as it is
No banning huh? Well see about that. I'm pure terror.
I don't think this board could have survived last nights horror show on WWBB. Great fun. BTW - I'm more impressed with your potential snow tommorrow night. It'll be a close call that's for sure. I have a creepy suspicion that NWP isn't going to handle the energy diving around the @ss end of the trough and to the east coast particularly well. This rather innocuous looking system could really surprise. Check out the convection firing off FL coast.
Well lets see. Had to do with DT and MT arguing over the weather and who was right and who was wrong and each showed thier evidence as to why they believed the other was wrong and made strong points. That sort of heated discussion we could very well handle.
. Just thought i would pass that info along to you vortex!!!!Yes i read the whole thread and im sure the other mods and admins would agree with me on this! Nothing wrong with a good heated debate as long as you show a strong case as DT and MT did.
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Winnipesaukee-2
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I'm not so sure you read the whole thread.
Even the late night parts where things got ugly? Everyone was fair game for random, vicious insults, I accused Vermont of sabotaging the Old Man of the Mountain in a jealous rage, and FreakyWxChick almost lost a tooth after trying to derail the thread with niceness.
Even the late night parts where things got ugly? Everyone was fair game for random, vicious insults, I accused Vermont of sabotaging the Old Man of the Mountain in a jealous rage, and FreakyWxChick almost lost a tooth after trying to derail the thread with niceness.
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donsutherland1
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Re: Cosgrove may regret saying this in his AM discussion:
WXW,
While there's little question that the ECMWF is quite warm, there are also possibilities for a colder scenario:
- negative NAO (see GFS ensembles)
- positive PNA (see GFS ensembles)
- where phasing takes place will be important
- 500 mb pattern
For now, the idea of a storm looks good. It's too soon to determine where the snow/rain boundary will be but possibilities for snow do exist.
Let's see what later model runs suggest e.g., the 12Z GGEM, tomorrow's runs, etc.
While there's little question that the ECMWF is quite warm, there are also possibilities for a colder scenario:
- negative NAO (see GFS ensembles)
- positive PNA (see GFS ensembles)
- where phasing takes place will be important
- 500 mb pattern
For now, the idea of a storm looks good. It's too soon to determine where the snow/rain boundary will be but possibilities for snow do exist.
Let's see what later model runs suggest e.g., the 12Z GGEM, tomorrow's runs, etc.
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Stormsfury
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Winnipesaukee-2 wrote:I'm not so sure you read the whole thread.
Even the late night parts where things got ugly? Everyone was fair game for random, vicious insults, I accused Vermont of sabotaging the Old Man of the Mountain in a jealous rage, and FreakyWxChick almost lost a tooth after trying to derail the thread with niceness.
I heard about that thread turning quite vicious, but never got a chance to see it, cuz it was gone by the time I got home tonight ...
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Winnipesaukee-2 wrote:I'm not so sure you read the whole thread.
Even the late night parts where things got ugly? Everyone was fair game for random, vicious insults, I accused Vermont of sabotaging the Old Man of the Mountain in a jealous rage, and FreakyWxChick almost lost a tooth after trying to derail the thread with niceness.
Yes i seen it all. LMAO. And look today its all but forgotten
. Correct? Plus i know you guys were just having some fun with it anyways. Trust me i know how everyone plays on wwbb. Its taken me a while but yea i know most everyone on there kids around alot. Just gotta know how to take it is all. Nothing like a good laugh which that thread surely was imo anyways .
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