well after seeing the Tuesday 12z GFS 18z GFS 12z UKMT and ECMWF I was about to call the Dig catcher to come get this former Big DOG
Basically all 3 of these models kick out the Greenland Block very rapidly which allows the Polar Vortex out to slide to far eastern Canada which in turns allows the cold air to slide out to sea as the system develops in the Plains...
The WED 00z canadian develops a strong Ridge along the west coast which allow the energy ( short wave = s/w) in the STJ to drop into TX and the the s/w in the PJ to drop further south as well.
But is the canadian over doing it? Taken VERBATIM the day 7-8 canadian develops the low WAY WAY far south -- a closed 500 low over
the gulf coast and delta.... Yes there is a Cold High now in position
( at day 7-10 on the canadian IGNORE the rain snow Thickness ) but the MODEL says -- NOT DT--- the system would hit VA western NVC TN and maybe MD with snow and NOT the NE.
Yes I think the canadian is over doing it
However the new 0z GGEM has the storm still
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hde_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdj_50.gif
How the DEC 23-25 MECL is looking" ( DOG CATCHER
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- Stormsfury
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It appears to me that the 00z Canadian still holds onto a "tropical feature" as well ... though, definitely not as robust as the prior 00z run ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/CMC.html
anyways, good post, DT.
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/CMC.html
anyways, good post, DT.
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- Dr Spectrum
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