How the DEC 23-25 MECL is looking" ( DOG CATCHER

Winter Weather Discussion

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How the DEC 23-25 MECL is looking" ( DOG CATCHER

#1 Postby Guest » Tue Dec 16, 2003 11:49 pm

well after seeing the Tuesday 12z GFS 18z GFS 12z UKMT and ECMWF I was about to call the Dig catcher to come get this former Big DOG

Basically all 3 of these models kick out the Greenland Block very rapidly which allows the Polar Vortex out to slide to far eastern Canada which in turns allows the cold air to slide out to sea as the system develops in the Plains...


The WED 00z canadian develops a strong Ridge along the west coast which allow the energy ( short wave = s/w) in the STJ to drop into TX and the the s/w in the PJ to drop further south as well.


But is the canadian over doing it? Taken VERBATIM the day 7-8 canadian develops the low WAY WAY far south -- a closed 500 low over
the gulf coast and delta.... Yes there is a Cold High now in position

( at day 7-10 on the canadian IGNORE the rain snow Thickness ) but the MODEL says -- NOT DT--- the system would hit VA western NVC TN and maybe MD with snow and NOT the NE.

Yes I think the canadian is over doing it
However the new 0z GGEM has the storm still

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hde_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdj_50.gif
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Stormsfury
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Dec 16, 2003 11:58 pm

It appears to me that the 00z Canadian still holds onto a "tropical feature" as well ... though, definitely not as robust as the prior 00z run ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/CMC.html

anyways, good post, DT.
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Dr Spectrum
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#3 Postby Dr Spectrum » Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:13 am

I also like this forecast, for than just the professionalism behind it - there is also NO FLAMES!!. A true post with true professional responses.

(Actually I guess this is another analysis, not a forecast).

Thanks again DT.
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