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Typhoon_Willie · #1 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 1:25 am

Here it is!

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1). AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE ARAFURA SEA NEAR
9.2S1 137.6E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MID-LEVELS. LATEST 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/TINOCO//

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:27 am

Hmmm.. A cyclone in the Eastern Pacific huh? Interesting this close to Christmas

Typhoon_Willie · #3 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:30 am

Actually this system is trying to develope in the Arafura Sea directly north of Austrailia, We will see what happens!

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 9:33 am

Oh OK.. my mistake

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 10:36 am

What do they mean by saying, SIGNIFICANT?

Typhoon_Willie · #6 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 12:41 pm

I would assume well organized cyclone. One that could cause damage and loss of life.

Typhoon_Willie · #7 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed Dec 17, 2003 12:42 pm

No Problem John!

AussieMark · #8 Postby **AussieMark** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:49 am

Haven't been online much this week.

If u guys have been wondering where i have been.

I Have been busy.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Thursday 18 December 2003

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities
between NHULUNBUY and CAPE FOURCROY.

At 3.30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW in the ARAFURA SEA was relocated and is centred
about 255 kilometres north of ELCHO ISLAND and 465 kilometres east northeast of
CAPE DON, nearly stationary.

The TROPICAL LOW is expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE early Friday.
GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales
could develop later.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 3.30 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 9.7 degrees South 135.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 60 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... nearly stationary
. Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

People between NHULUNBUY and CAPE FOURCROY should listen for the next advice
which will be issued at 11 pm CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

#9 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:56 pm

Just to let you know, it is now 5P, so it is a storm, Debbie. It is forecasted to become Cyclone strength (75 M.P.H.), and move very slowly.

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