C'mon guys, throw a dog a bone!!

[hial2]

Snow virgin here...Likelyhood of snow NY area week of the 26 thru the 30??//First time in below 40 degrees weather area and anxious to see some flakes

Thanks

[Stormchaser16]

Not to be blunt or anything, but you are asking for a forecast that is 9-13 days away, that is nearly impossible at this point. The only thing we could tell you is what the pattern looks like, and right now it looks fairly zonal during that period, however asking us if you are going to get snow during that period is on the border of ridiculous, and these posts about people wanting to know if it is going to snow 2 weeks away are getting over bearing, its just something people/forecasters cant tell you. Again, this is not directed only at you, but people like playballGT from ohio, who all keep asking the same repeated thing.

[hial2]

Maybe a little anxious, that's all..I assumed that some of the good forecasters in this forum had an idea of the potential for snow in the area during the latter part of the holidays..
Not meant to irritate or upset anyone!!..

[Stormchaser16]

I understand that, however if you take one quick scroll down the forum list here, you can easily identfity 4 or 5 of these posts, the problem is, no one can really make any type of educated call out this far. Yes there is a possibility of a storm, per the model data, however it is all over the place as of now. For anyone to make any type of call on it, is just not good forecasting. I know people who have done this(will not mention any names, however you know who you are) and it's just not something you can go by. Sorry to sound irritated, probably the antibiotics I am currently on, but you must understand where I am coming from.

[Guest]

I understand that, however if you take one quick scroll down the forum list here, you can easily identfity 4 or 5 of these posts, the problem is, no one can really make any type of educated call out this far. Yes there is a possibility of a storm, per the model data, however it is all over the place as of now. For anyone to make any type of call on it, is just not good forecasting. I know people who have done this(will not mention any names, however you know who you are) and it's just not something you can go by. Sorry to sound irritated, probably the antibiotics I am currently on, but you must understand where I am coming from.

Perhaps this is something to let us mods and the admins of this forum deal with. Ok 16? People have been getting a little edgy lately on both ends and i do hope things calm down some. Trust me we will deal with any problems that arise and as well we have been ok. Hope this helps 16.

Hial i will say myself like stormchaser16 just said that it is way too early to make any kinda call yet. Just know the potential exist for a big storm so check back in to see what develops as that time nears ok. Sorry for not responding sooner. Hope this helps...........

[Stormchaser16]

Why would the admins have to handle anything in this case King? I wasnt implying that the posts in anyway should be deleted. I understand peoples curiosity as to what may happen. However as i have said its hard at this point to keep telling people in all these posts that at this point we just dont know.

[RNS]

I understand that, however if you take one quick scroll down the forum list here, you can easily identfity 4 or 5 of these posts, the problem is, no one can really make any type of educated call out this far. Yes there is a possibility of a storm, per the model data, however it is all over the place as of now. For anyone to make any type of call on it, is just not good forecasting. I know people who have done this(will not mention any names, however you know who you are) and it's just not something you can go by. Sorry to sound irritated, probably the antibiotics I am currently on, but you must understand where I am coming from.

Perhaps this is something to let us mods and the admins of this forum deal with. Ok 16? People have been getting a little edgy lately on both ends and i do hope things calm down some. Trust me we will deal with any problems that arise and as well we have been ok. Hope this helps 16.

Hial i will say myself like stormchaser16 just said that it is way too early to make any kinda call yet. Just know the potential exist for a big storm so check back in to see what develops as that time nears ok. Sorry for not responding sooner. Hope this helps...........

the first piece of energy will most likely run up to the lakes...with no blocking or 50/50 low and ridge near spain...its just the way it goes...however in similar Fashion to what we just dealt with today...a secondary low may try to form along or just inland from the east coast on the 24th. (Consult the day 7 ECM my link below to UNISYS only provides days 3 through 6)...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_6d.html

I also would like to draw everyones attention to the low pressure areas which once into the north atlantic are cutting to the east toward europe instead of deepening toward greenland...signature of a split flow across the atlantic and a tendency for a negative NAO (blocking).

[weatherfan]

As we get closer to the event we sould start geting a better ideal of what will be happening.Right now it's still a question Mark.We do know that there will be a storm next week but the questions are.How much of a cold air problem is there.It could be likey that the cold air gets in to late meaning after the storm so end result is mostey a rain event.And also where the storm track could be.These are the questions that as Stormchaser16 is saying we just can't anwer.But this weekend we sould start having a much better ideal.In any Long ranges forecasts things are likey and will likey changes.Just some times it changes to your likeing.Other times its changes where its reather dissapointing.But no one has any control over it.Because simpley the weather is going to do what it wants to do.Not how we want it.And that what makes weather forecasting interisting and exciteing is the ever changeing aspact of it and learning of it.

[Stormsfury]

Unisys DOES provide a restricted access for the USA only out to Day 7.

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restrict/

Also, an alternative (PSU - make your own maps Weather Center) where the map links are preset and premade --- just choose the ECMWF map you want to see and viola, the formula is already set and the map will come up in an inside frame on the page ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html

[RNS]

Unisys DOES provide a restricted access for the USA only out to Day 7.

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/restrict/

Also, an alternative (PSU - make your own maps Weather Center) where the map links are preset and premade --- just choose the ECMWF map you want to see and viola, the formula is already set and the map will come up in an inside frame on the page ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html

Thanks...

[Upslope]

Canadian starting to look more realistic for our Christmas week system.

[url]http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdd_50.gif

Basically starts to describe what RNS was just talking about with a los forming inland riding the appy express! This would be a nice snowfall for the OV and Lakes!

So many options for next week and my gut feeling is that those who are writing this off as strictly a rain maker are going to be sorry. While it will be a big rainstorm for a lot of folks... it's getting harder and harder to deny that this will LIKELY have a thumping wet snow for someone![/url]

[RNS]

Canadian starting to look more realistic for our Christmas week system.

[url]http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdd_50.gif

Basically starts to describe what RNS was just talking about with a los forming inland riding the appy express! This would be a nice snowfall for the OV and Lakes!

So many options for next week and my gut feeling is that those who are writing this off as strictly a rain maker are going to be sorry. While it will be a big rainstorm for a lot of folks... it's getting harder and harder to deny that this will LIKELY have a thumping wet snow for someone![/url]

Fixed the link for you...lol.

[Guest]

Canadian starting to look more realistic for our Christmas week system.

[url]http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdd_50.gif

Basically starts to describe what RNS was just talking about with a los forming inland riding the appy express! This would be a nice snowfall for the OV and Lakes!

So many options for next week and my gut feeling is that those who are writing this off as strictly a rain maker are going to be sorry. While it will be a big rainstorm for a lot of folks... it's getting harder and harder to deny that this will LIKELY have a thumping wet snow for someone![/url]

Well guess what? I have been trying VERY VERY Hard to stay away from discussing this storm for the plain simple reason you just pointed out about someone getting a thumping wet snow from this. Guess who? Yea me. I have been watching these models almost say the same thing now for days. Tonights 00z gfs is truely amazing for me to look and watch as it shows this storm just stalling to my north and keeping the heavy precip go for almost 5 days straight . IF and i do say "IF" this does happen next week as the GFS shows (Highly doubtful btw) then this will be a historical snowstorm for these parts especially away from the LE areas such as where i am located. Dont get much in the way of bigtime LE here.

This is something that i certainly will be watching from now untill whatever comes this way out of it...............ALL i can say for now is a BIG heads up for the OH Valley and Great Lakes! Keep your eyes on this one!