Xmas Storm update #2. Simularities??????

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 12:45 pm

First off let me clearly state that the word simularities only referrs to how the models handled the Dec5th storm but thats where they end. MEANING this is not another bomb for the eastcoast. This is looking to be a big bomb out towards the OH Valley/Great Lakes especially towards the Southern Lakes.

The models! 06z and now the 12z have begun to do "At almost the exact time frame" what they did with the Dec 5th event. More or less lose it slightly and speed of system has changed as well. Allthough the 12z does show a slower moving system just not as wrapped up as say the 00z run which that run showed the exact set up for days which is what i believe will be the outcome of the xmas storm.

For now untill i feel more confident about the eastside of the apps i am gonna focus on the west side of the apps in the OH/TN valley's and the Great lakes and the Midwest as well................

The greatest chance for a significant snow as i see it right now (confidence is medium to medium high) would be along i70 from IL/MO east to Pittsburgh, PA. And as well along i80 and south from IA/IL East to the PA/OH Line. However areas farther east and north into southern Michigan especially towards Detroit is to be included in this as well.

I will mention alot of these areas especially from i70 south should start out as rain on xmas eve before changing to snow xmas eve night..........

I will say that i REALLY hate to forecast like this because it does include my backyard so to say. But i must say what i do feel most confident about concerning this event because most "Not all" the models shows this and as well the pattern shows it.

But either way this is my thoughts for today so far on the xmas event.
I will continue to update on this event with another update later tonight.

Would love to hear others thoughts on this system as well. ie; SF, DT, RNS, Don,...............Thanks.

Playballgt14 · #2 Postby **Playballgt14** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:10 pm

awesome!! i live in ohio

stormraiser · #3 Postby **stormraiser** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:52 pm

Yes, we know, Glenny boy, we know.

GalvestonDuck · #4 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:03 pm

king of weather wrote:For now untill i feel more confident about the eastside of the apps i am gonna focus on the west side of the apps in the OH/TN valley's and the Great lakes and the Midwest as well................
<snipped>
I will mention alot of these areas especially from i70 south should start out as rain on xmas eve before changing to snow xmas eve night.........

Blah! Typical start for messy KY snow -- rain changing to snow overnight, which leaves a nasty layer of black ice on the roads. As long as it's not there til after I get there and then gone by the time I leave.

Playballgt14 · #5 Postby **Playballgt14** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:39 pm

i know u know i know

Colin · #6 Postby **Colin** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:15 pm

Nice wet Christmas for me...

Chris the Weather Man · #7 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:32 pm

It Can Still Change!!! We Will Never Know............ Heck, maybe on Christmas Eve Morning, there will be 3-6 inches of snow on the ground! Its a little too far out, to tell, what is really gonna happen! By Monday, or Tuesday, We should have a better idea..............

#8 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:34 pm

king of weather wrote:First off let me clearly state that the word simularities only referrs to how the models handled the Dec5th storm but thats where they end. MEANING this is not another bomb for the eastcoast. This is looking to be a big bomb out towards the OH Valley/Great Lakes especially towards the Southern Lakes.

The models! 06z and now the 12z have begun to do "At almost the exact time frame" what they did with the Dec 5th event. More or less lose it slightly and speed of system has changed as well. Allthough the 12z does show a slower moving system just not as wrapped up as say the 00z run which that run showed the exact set up for days which is what i believe will be the outcome of the xmas storm.

For now untill i feel more confident about the eastside of the apps i am gonna focus on the west side of the apps in the OH/TN valley's and the Great lakes and the Midwest as well................

The greatest chance for a significant snow as i see it right now (confidence is medium to medium high) would be along i70 from IL/MO east to Pittsburgh, PA. And as well along i80 and south from IA/IL East to the PA/OH Line. However areas farther east and north into southern Michigan especially towards Detroit is to be included in this as well.

I will mention alot of these areas especially from i70 south should start out as rain on xmas eve before changing to snow xmas eve night..........

I will say that i REALLY hate to forecast like this because it does include my backyard so to say. But i must say what i do feel most confident about concerning this event because most "Not all" the models shows this and as well the pattern shows it.

But either way this is my thoughts for today so far on the xmas event.
I will continue to update on this event with another update later tonight.

Would love to hear others thoughts on this system as well. ie; SF, DT, RNS, Don,...............Thanks.

Its like i said last night...the ridge over spain and the fact that there is NO blocking or 50/50 low at least initially implies a track up into the lakes...with another low center developing along or just east of the apps on the 24th. this idea was supported by last nights ECM at day 7.

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:36 pm

On a side note i noticed on ILN (Wilmington, OH NWS) update that they are now mentioning this even as well. VERY unusal for them to be jumping on a event this far out. Nice to see some added support for this possible big event.

000
FXUS61 KILN 181943
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
243 PM EST THU DEC 18 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW SOUTH PMH. KILN
SHOWING PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF A CONNERSVILLE TO DAYTON
TO CIRCLEVILLE LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-70.

MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS SAME TIME. THUS A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. THE
BEST THREAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BRINGING SOME CLEARING
AND A DRY FORECAST.

MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. ONLY ADJUSTED BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

WILL LEAVE HEADLINES UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND
HENCE A WARMING TREND. ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN
DEVELOPING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING A MERGE BETWEEN A NRN UPR LVL SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA
WITH A SRN UPR LVL SHORTWAVE OVER THE TEXAS/OKLA PANHANDLE. THE NRN
SYSTEM WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLD AIR AS IT MERGES WITH THE SRN
SYSTEM. EVENTUALLY...A CLOSE LOW AT 500 MB IS EXPECTED. THE CLOSED
LOW IS FCST TO "SET UP SHOP" OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY CHRISTMAS EVE. WARM AIR AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS IT
LOOKS NOW...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE CLOSED LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD NRN
OHIO/NE PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE). THUS...PCPN
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.
AGAIN...THIS IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY OF
MODELS TO PEG CLOSED LOW POSITIONS...THE ACTUAL POSITION COULD VERY
WELL END UP SOMEWHERE OTHER THAN CURRENT FCST LOCATION...CHANGING
EVERYTHING FROM TEMPS TO PCPN TYPE. AM GOING FOR SNOW CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY ATTM...BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP
ADJUSTING THE EXTENDED FCST AS CHRISTMAS APCHES. FOR THOSE HOPING
FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS...IT LOOKS POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
INZ058-059-066-073>075-080
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT KYZ089>100
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
OHZ070-077>079-081-088

&&

$$
AR

On another simularity note. This storm has the looks of the Great 1950 Apps storm. Only exception will be the extreme cold that the 1950 storm brought to the OH Valley. Storm itself and snow potential look very much simular just not as far se with the heavier snows into the lower OH Valley as the 1950 event.

stormraiser · #10 Postby **stormraiser** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:58 pm

NWS Buf was calling for rain, but changed it to rain or snow, so you may be onto something

stormraiser · #11 Postby **stormraiser** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:02 pm

I know that you know that I know that you know, but I don't care and neither does anyone else. End of conversation.

Playballgt14 wrote:i know u know i know

#12 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:06 pm

Playballgt14 wrote:i know u know i know

thats quite a tounge twister....haha...

GalvestonDuck · #13 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:37 pm

What I desire to know is if you know that we know that you want it to snow in northeast 'hio, why oh why do you go on and on so in a turbulent flow since along time ago? Let it go.

Tallyho.

stormraiser · #14 Postby **stormraiser** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:39 pm

LOL, Duck that was a good one.

I just want him to be normal and not ask every 15 seconds if it will snow in NE Ohio. Is that too much to ask?

Playballgt14 · #15 Postby **Playballgt14** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 5:54 pm

im sorry im asking so much, you guys are getting annoyed

StormCrazyIowan · #16 Postby **StormCrazyIowan** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 9:53 pm

ROFL!!!

My local forecast discussion mentions this "Potential Strong System" as well! :wink:

I'm dreaming....of a....well, you know!

Guest · #17 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 10:04 pm

StormCrazyIowan wrote:ROFL!!!

My local forecast discussion mentions this "Potential Strong System" as well!

I'm dreaming....of a....well, you know!

Yep i know. :wink:

. And i very much hope you do get one!

Which at this point looks like a good possibility!

Enjoy!!!!!

StormCrazyIowan · #18 Postby **StormCrazyIowan** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 10:22 pm

I will.

WEATHERGURU · #19 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 10:25 pm

Hey King still look good for these parts for snow next week?

Guest · #20 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 10:37 pm

WEATHERGURU wrote:Hey King still look good for these parts for snow next week?

Yep still looking good WEATHERGURU!

Xmas Storm update #2. Simularities??????

Xmas Storm update #2. Simularities??????

Re: Xmas Storm update #2. Simularities??????

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