The Holiday Season and The Snow Goose

[donsutherland1]

It is that special time of the year again. Hanukkah’s Festival of Lights is about to begin. Soon Christmas will be here. The air is filled with joy and also anticipation.

Whatever holiday one celebrates, three things bring together snow geese of all stripes: love of family, love of friends, and love of snow. As Menorahs and Christmas trees light hearts, the miracle of snow—the uniqueness of every snowflake and its precious crystal—brings extra joy to the snow goose.

To the snow goose, there is nothing more glorious than a raging blizzard. Little brings a greater sense of awe to the snow goose than howling icy winds that pile snow into mountainous drifts and whiteouts that make the surrounding landscape disappear in an impenetrable fog created by millions of falling snowflakes.

When trees are plastered in white, fields are covered by a thick mantle of snow, and the music of sleigh bells rings out over the magnificent outdoors, all is right with the snow goose. A big snowstorm is a dream come true. Heavy snow falling on top of a thick blanket of freshly-fallen snow is priceless.

With the holiday season now upon us, what gifts can the snow goose look forward to this winter. Far from satisfying their hunger for snow, last winter’s abundant snows followed by the snowy start to Winter 2003-04 have fired the appetites of snow geese everywhere.

Albert Bigelow Paine’s “A White Day,” published in the February 20, 1897 issue of <I>Harper’s Weekly</I> —a snowy winter in its own right—heralds what likely awaits the snow goose this winter:

<I>Gray, tapering spires half lost in swarming white.
White roofs where fleeting eddies swirl and shift.
White casements gathering each its sloping drift.
A sound of sleigh-bells on the muffled street—
The scrape of shovels and the stamp of feet—
A half-lit day that fades to half-lit night.</I>

Looking back at the past, the rest of the winter looks to delight the snow goose, whether in Philadelphia, New York or Boston.

A big early-season snowfall of 6” or more prior to December 7 can have major implications for the upcoming winter and certainly break the proverbial back of fears that suppression will lead to a snow drought for the upcoming winter. In such cases, while there can be suppressed periods, winters as a whole are not “suppressed” in general with regard to their storm tracks.

New York City's significant early-season significant snowfalls (December 7 and earlier) are as follows:

November 24-25, 1938: 8.8"
November 29, 1882: 9.0"
November 30, 1898: 6.0"
December 4, 1957: 7.5"
December 5, 1886: 8.1"
December 5, 2002: 6.0"

In all six winters, seasonal snowfall was above to much above average for New York City.

Total winter snowfall for these seasons:
1882-83: 44.0"
1886-87: 32.9"
1898-99: 55.9"
1938-39: 37.3"
1957-58: 44.7"
2002-03: 49.3”

Average: 44.0”

In addition, for those living in the Mid-Atlantic region, in 3 of the 4 years since regular recordkeeping began in Washington, D.C., snowfall was above 25" there. Only 1938-39 (13.6") came in with below normal seasonal snowfall.

At the same time, an especially snowy December (12” or more)—and if the upcoming storm dumps as much as some of the model guidance suggests is possible, it will put December 2003 on a “fast track” toward such snowfall—offers a strong signal both in Boston and New York City of above normal snowfall for the coming season:

In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more:
• 14/22 (63.6%) seasons saw more than 50” for the season and 17/22 (77.3%) saw more than 45” for the season in Boston.
• 14/15 (93.3%) seasons saw 30” or more for the season in New York City. The average came to 44.7%. Lowest: 28.7”; Highest: 63.2”.

In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more in both Boston and New York City:

There was a somewhat greater tendency for suppression, though both cities still saw above normal snowfall.

• 4/7 (57.1%) of seasons saw more than 45” for the season in Boston with an average of 59.0”.
• 6/7 (85.7%) of seasons saw more than 30” for the season in New York City with an average of 47.7”.

Finally in winters in which Washington, DC received 6” or more snow in December, New York City and Boston received 12” or more, snowfall averages came to:

Boston: 52.4” (least: 44.9”)
New York City: 44.7” (least: 31.4”)
Philadelphia: 37.2” (least: 18.6”)
Washington, DC: 34.3” (least: 21.6”)

All said, things look promising for the snow goose this winter.
While the timeless <I>A Christmas Carol</I> might be a favorite for some, perhaps “A Seasonable Tale” published in the December 26, 1883 edition of <I>The New York Times</I> pertaining to the December 25, 1883 snowstorm might be more popular with the snow goose:

<I>A stage driver was taking a gentleman across country from the Pleasant Plains station on the Staten Island Railway, yesterday, when the passenger remarked that the snow-storm of Sunday was quite heavy. “Yes,” said the driver, “but ‘taint like the snows we used to have. See that plain over there?” asked the venerable Jehu, pointing down the hill. “Well, one day in ’56 I drove up to that peaked-roofed farm-house, stopped my team on the snow-crust beside the chimney, and dropped them provisions down through a chute in the snow.”</I>

To all, may you have a most wonderful holiday season. May the winter ahead be long and the sleighing good for snow geese everywhere.

<img src="http://worldimages.homestead.com/files/p7014.jpg">

[RNS]

Great read Don (as always)...and a happy holiday to you too...

[Guest]

Very good read Don! Thanks! And i wish you a very happy holiday as well!!!!!

Thank you for bringing your great insight to this board! "Btw same goes for you too RNS!:) Thanks guys!

Happy holidays!!!!!

[mdstorm]

Wonderful post for the snow goose in all of us, Don.

Happy and Healthy Holidays to you and your family.

mdstorm

[WXBUFFJIM]

The following shows the wettest years ever for both BWI Airport near Baltimore, MD and DCA Reagan National Arpt in Washington DC.

BWI WETTEST YEARS

1. 1889: 62.35"
2. 2003: 61.88"
3. 1979: 58.98"
4. 1996: 58.31"
5. 1952: 56.57"

DCA WETTEST YEARS

1. 1889: 61.33"
2. 2003: 60.23"
3. 1878: 60.09"
4. 1886: 58.17"
5. 1948: 57.54"


Happy holidays to you all!! Some broken records potentially up above before the end of this month for DC and Baltimore. That's a statement isn't it?

Jim

[Stephanie]

That was wonderful Don! Happy Holidays to you as well!

[JCT777]

Don - awesome post as usual. Happy Holidays to you too!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks all for the kind words and best wishes for the holidays and beyond.