18Z GFS

WEATHERGURU · #1 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:30 pm

The new GFS tracks the low over south central and southeast Ohio but the GFS have the temperatures way to high I thinks, it looks like a good track for us and the KOW to get a heavy snow what are your thoughts?

#2 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:48 pm

I wouldin/t be so concerned...the GFS will waffle back and forth until within 48 hours of the event in some cases.

and besides...this is the 18z run...personally i dont like to modify forecasts based on 18z model information unless absolutely necessairy.

WEATHERGURU · #3 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:51 pm

Thanks. Did you see the Global canadian from last nights 00Z run?

#4 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:58 pm

yes...i did see last nights 0z canadian...and it supported a similar track.

the problem is how much cold air is around to produce snow or wintry precipitation once the phasing occurs and how much cold air is present after the phase underneath the closed 500 hPa low.

WEATHERGURU · #5 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 6:02 pm

In your opinion how good od a chance do we have of getting heavy snow from this storm (i.e. 50%)?

#6 Postby **RNS** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 6:03 pm

Less than 40%...i just don/t think set-up is right for a major snow event in your area even in spite of the favorable track of the surface low.

WEATHERGURU · #7 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 6:06 pm

Thanks

WEATHERGURU · #8 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 6:10 pm

Do you think there is a place that could see heavy snow with this system?

capecodder · #9 Postby **capecodder** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 6:11 pm

Regarding the GFS. Even KBOX in their discussion had this to say:
"Therefore, expect a slow moving storm system towards the middle of the week. the gfs models has been all over the places and continues of late to show very little run to run consistency. The ukmet/ecwmf/Canadian models show the storm system tracking west of the appalachian mountains. Timing will be very tricky as the dynamics of the system will be slow to move east. Nonetheless, will continue rain chances for Wednesday. Enough cold air May be trapped in the valleys especially with a surface high over Canada, to allow some freezing rain at the onset, but mid level temperatures should be too warm for any snow.

stormraiser · #10 Postby **stormraiser** » Sat Dec 20, 2003 10:36 pm

NWS BUF says this" THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN WITH
SYSTEM CHRISTMAS EVE...BEFORE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
BEFORE MORNING AND DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT
AT THIS POINT LOOK LIKELY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY."

18Z GFS

18Z GFS

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