This drag boston national weather service discussion

[blizzard20]

National Weather Service Taunton MA
1124 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2003

Excellent shopping weather through Tuesday then the complexities develop as we move toward what could be an interesting first week of January


Marine: Forecast is generally on track, but have decided to delay small craft advisories over Cape Cod Bay and narr Bay until tonight. May See a gust or two to 25 kts over this region toward evening, but not for much of the afternoon.


Little Chg in the 11 AM pkg. Middletown CT Flooding should end this
evening and an updated fls will post by noon.

Thru Tuesday few chgs envisioned in the 4PM pkg.

Wed Into Thu, trending a bit less straightforward. Already a chance of spotty ice Wed morning for 12z Wed baf nwwd and phasing May take place later and further E..Today this initially signalled by 00z/06z eta runs and the dtx eta, the latter having had some recent model adjustment. 00Z/21 ggem was more direct for sne as well. All this ensembled with the overwhelming clustering of the 00z/21 gfs/ 12z/20 ec. In the end, for the region S of the MA Pike it probably is meaningless for this discussion/fcst. NW MA And SW NH May end up with an icing sitn.

Probably going to cap temperatures NW of i95 Wed and Wed night in the upper 30S/lower 40S with the brief warm up late Wed night only i95 sewd. This presumes its raining Wednesday NW NW of i95 which is now modeled by the 12z/21 eta/gfs.

Beyond, ao is plunging and so is the nao far behind. Already by 12/31 significantly abv normal hts modeled into greenland (not a block but more or less an influence if srn stream times its approach correctly with the ht anom). So far, essentially blo normal cold not seen yet for these last 10 days of Dec per the cmc 10 day mean temps.

Dec 1-20 In sne has avg'D 2.5 to 3.4 blo normal but the departure will decrease during Wed/Thu event. That notwithstanding the trend

for events has been colder solns....Ever since the thanksgiving night
warmup.

On hydro, with mqe at 7.53, 15th wettest on record, this next event appears likely to push some locations along and SE of i95 to 8" or higher monthly W.E. Qpf.
Mqe Dec sfall is already 4th highest on record. pvd Dec sfall is already #3 on record bos Dec sfall is already #7 on record

Box watches/warnings/advisories: CT, River flood warning for CT River at Middletown. MA, none. RI, none. NH, none. marine, sca all outer-Waters and narr Bay.




Marine update, frank
near term, Tlm
marine/aviation, H frank
public, Drag

[therock1811]

what does that mean?

[ColdFront77]

Walt Drag is one of the meteorologist at the Taunton, MA National Weather Service office.