farmers Almanac Says...

[Anonymous]

Although they did not predict both East Coast snow storms, they are right a majority of the time. They say: December 20-23 temps moderate with showers, 24-27 falling temps with snow showers and flurries, 28-31 flurries with subfreezing temps. I have heard that it is going to get cold near New Years. Models suggest there could be a storm. What do you think?

[Stormsfury]

Sorry 1evans, but I, for one, don't put much stock into the farmer's almanac ....

The farmer's almanac is heavily based on averages ... what averages, I don't know, really, and really do not know the thought processes that are put together on that .. statisical probabilities that the farmer's almanac would be right or wrong is well, 50/50 ... either it's right or wrong ... and basically based on nothing much than guesstimates.

SF

[Anonymous]

your right it's really 50/50. I want snow. I keep getting missed. Do you foresee anything this winter like the Presidents Day Blizzard?

[Stormsfury]

your right it's really 50/50. I want snow. I keep getting missed. Do you foresee anything this winter like the Presidents Day Blizzard?

Unfortunately, I cannot see specifically, something THAT detailed and complex far out in the LR, but the 00z GFS ensembles maybe hinting at something just after the New Year. However, as obviously things are going ... the models are just now beginning to come to an agreement with the current developing situation (and it's only 60 hour-72 hours away) ...

This shows just how complex the weather pattern is right now.

[Anonymous]

I have a question, last year when we got the Presidents Day Blizzard, did the models pick up on it in advance?

[Stormsfury]

I have a question, last year when we got the Presidents Day Blizzard, did the models pick up on it in advance?

The ECMWF 10 days out ... and it NEVER strayed ...

[Anonymous]

That system after New Years, do the models say that it goes up the coast?

[Stormsfury]

That system after New Years, do the models say that it goes up the coast?

This far out, 1evans, the specific SFC features aren't the important thing here, it's the overall longwave pattern and determining the teleconnections and pattern recognition (a very tough task) ... generally, I don't get into SFC specifics until at least 7 days from the event, though, it's NEVER a forecast, just model speculation/interpretation, unless I am absolutely sure of the pattern.

SF