DEC 2003 is a FREAK month for the Northeast

[Guest]

face it folks DEC 2003 has been a freak ish month...


to understand my point folks will have to move past the MY house attitude..
There is No denying the cold over the NORTHEAST of DEC 2003. But that facts are these... east of the Rockies the only part of the CONUS that has been cold as been the northeast. The ONLY part of the CONUS east of the Rockies that has seen normal or above normal snow has ben the northeast.

Any forecaster with any skill will tell you that in this pattern.... where the pacific jet has been blasting the pacific northwest with heavy rains huge mtn snows and below normal... THAT pattern 9.5 times out of 10 will NOT produce a COLDER than normal pattern in the NE

Nor has there been ANY prolonged strong blocking in high latitudes such as the greenland block.... The PV has been located in far NW Canada all of NOV and DEC.... yet in december it has been cold in the NE

And there has been a strong ridge off the SE coast in the western atlantic the whole month

I am at a loss to explain why given all of this.... why it has been sooo cold all month in the NE. Certainly the DEC 6-7 snowstorm had something to do with it...

I will have to search the records but 5 will get you 10 that this will turn out to be the coldest DEC ever with NO sustained -NAO or with NAO values of -0.5 to -1.0

[thstorm87]

well dt, with that all in mind, do you have any ideas what january may hold for the northeast?

[roarusdogus]

Was there colder than usual air to the north? Did the cold start around areas like Pond Inlet where it was a very cool summer have anything to do with it? Also, what in the world would have happened or will happen if we do get some real blocking? Will we really shiver? That is a very interesting climatic question you brought up DT. Could it just simply be we are headed back to colder times again and therefore even without a cold looking pattern, we can still get some good cold. Hell, that was damn cold air that came through in late Sept/early Oct. with the accumulating snow of many inches here in parts of lower Mich on the night of Oct.1. That is quite unusual. It just seems that cold WANTS to rule but we can't get the pattern to allow it.

[DCmetroraleigh]

It is erroneous to say that only the Northeast has been cold in December. The Midwest and especially the Southwest have been very below normal also.

[Squall52]

A good example of how there are always exceptions to the norm. Looking back at the indicies/pattern of this month, a milder/less snowy forecast may have worked out most times. Sometimes it is just impossible to make the right call, if you are using the 'correct' reasoning. Constant storminess and phasing at the right time, bringing down more cold air than expected, along with a fast/busy jet resulting in increased confluence/stronger high pressure, has resulted in more cold air and more snow. Hopefully there is a reason for this...maybe unnamed indicies or patterns that make this favorable for the sensible wx we've been having. Many of the good storms this month have looked like they've had 'nothing going for them'. But when it comes time for the storm, suddenly we see that this storm had plenty of tools/weapons to cause trouble.

[WoodstockWX]

the mid atlantic region has also seen above normal snowfall, even though they haven't been quite as cold as the NE.

[Guest]

You have NO idea what you are talking about. THis map shows you are totally wrong

It is erroneous to say that only the Northeast has been cold in December. The Midwest and especially the Southwest have been very below normal also.

[Guest]

and this show JUST SINCE DEC 1-19

[David]

Topeka has been jipped with snow.. but has warm tempratures... but i'll take the 50's and 60's.

[Guest]

and this show JUST SINCE DEC 1-19

Thanks for posting that DT. Seems for this month starting on the 1st (Not the last 30days map) im pretty much right as to what i stated above.

[Stormsfury]

I was trying to find a map like that one above ... just as I was uploading all the maps for this month (ETA initializations from December 1st until today at 00z, my cable modem line went offline ...)

Anyway, the MUCH below normal temperatures in the Southeast arise from several damming events, both classic and dry wedging ... but as for the mystery, it very well may remain one since there was no significant blocking ...

This is a 41 frame JAVA Loop (Unisys 4 Panel Upper-Air Maps)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/UAC.html

[Anonymous]

One thing I would like to point out is all the snowpack all over Canada, and also the northern tier and in the Northeast.

Snowpack could account for the cold in the NE so far. You got extensive snowpack over Canada into the northern USA, it stands to reason you will see more cold air comin' down from the north.

I don't know where that awesome map of North America is located at, showing all that beautiful, pristine snowcover, but it's out there somewhere. Last I saw, Hudson Bay / James Bay looked to be 90 percent ice covered!!!

BRING IT!!!!!

JEB

[WEATHER53]

Real bad call limiting below normal call to northeast when in fact, ne and mid atlantic and southeast and south and eastern half of ohio valley are ranging 1 to 4 below normal

[Guest]

sorry even someone like you is required to LOOK at the data... eastern end of the Ohio valley? get a clue 53... that area is in the PALE BLUE coler-- which is -0.5 below normal.

so what? How is that area which has been essentially Normal.... Now part of the Northeast ? How the hell can anyone look at that map and say the Ohio valley is 4 degree below Normal?

what a bozo

Real bad call limiting below normal call to northeast when in fact, ne and mid atlantic and southeast and south and eastern half of ohio valley are ranging 1 to 4 below normal

[Guest]

[quote="DT"]sorry even someone like you is required to LOOK at the data... eastern end of the Ohio valley? get a clue 53... that area is in the PALE BLUE coler-- which is -0.5 below normal.

so what? How is that area which has been essentially Normal.... Now part of the Northeast ? How the hell can anyone look at that map and say the Ohio valley is 4 degree below Normal?

what a bozo


Ummm......The map for 12/1-12/19 shows the entire East Coast has been cold, not just the NE as you stated in your original post.....

[Guest]

Ummm......The map for 12/1-12/19 shows the entire East Coast has been cold, not just the NE as you stated in your original post.....[/quote]


I see you have corrected your post at WWBB to say EC instead of NE...cool....

[WEATHER53]

Sorry buddy boy but that pale blue runs from 0 to -1 and about 35-40% the county is shaded that way or colder. The northeast and all of the mid atlantic, southeast, most of the south and the eastern half of Ohio valley region are below normal to well below normal.

[Guest]

Sorry buddy boy but that pale blue runs from 0 to -1 and about 35-40% the county is shaded that way or colder. The northeast and all of the mid atlantic, southeast, most of the south and the eastern half of Ohio valley region are below normal to well below normal.

ummm...the pale blue is 1 -2 below normal.....white is 0-1 below normal....so all blue shades are at least 1 below normal and everything either blue or white is below normal.....this actually helps your point

[weatherlover427]

There is even some below normal shoing up in the Colorado River area as well as in Texas. That sure is not the Norteast. Unless the magnetic poles have reversed... :-?