December 23-26 Storm
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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WEATHERGURU
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2003 10:09 pm
- Location: Wyandotte, Mi (15 miles south of Detroit)
December 23-26 Storm
Does anyone have any predictions on snowfall with this storm? Thanks....
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Dr Spectrum
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 6:50 pm
- Location: North Central Ohio (Medina County) 1123'
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WEATHERGURU
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2003 10:09 pm
- Location: Wyandotte, Mi (15 miles south of Detroit)
Just like most of the maps out there so far say, this far out the it's nothing more than an educated guess...as to where the 'best' snow may fall. Being in western ny, i've been watching this one intently for awhile now. Every possible strong storm deserves attention 5-7 days out, even if it is progged to be 500 miles away IMO. Things often change, it's up to you if you think things will change or if it's even worth worrying about anything outside of the short range; because of those changes.
Personally, I always saw this one heading farther south and east than originally progged a few days ago. Shorter term, higher resolution models have been catching colder and colder air, and stronger northern stream systems coming out of canada...and the medium range models play catch up. Due to these things, we often end up with a stronger high pressure system to pump cold air in, and everything changes. Nothing different this time...just a question of 'how much'. Right now it looks like the trend south and east has come to a hault; models are holding on to the idea of a strong high locked in off the east coast, pumping warm air well ahead of the system.
Several model trends seem to come into play with every system this season. Shortwaves coming out of the pacific always seem stronger, the nothern stream seems to dominate, and things trend faster/further north and west(often after initial shifts to the east, due to the faster, continuous flow of shortwaves upstream). This being said, perhaps this one will come back into the midwest a bit.
Hard to say who, if anyone will see a good snowfall out of this. The initial waves/overrunning set up ahead of this storm may help places from Saint Louis to Indianapolis and Detroit, just like DEC 5 was greatly helped by the first system in the mid-atlantic. Weaker/quicker system = less warm air brought up with more moisture. The delayed phasing idea may continue, however, and not allow this storm to become impressive until it is nearly into Canada, so 'REALLY' good snow may not occur anywhere in the US this time.
I'd pick NE lower michigan as the place to be right now, but much of lower michigan looks like it has a good shot at this point. Just how I see it attm.
Btw, odds were always stacked against a big NE snowstorm...I mean, come on, two years in row? after 69, 78, 02? Nahhhh. Stranger things have happened, but not looking like this'll be one of those times.
Personally, I always saw this one heading farther south and east than originally progged a few days ago. Shorter term, higher resolution models have been catching colder and colder air, and stronger northern stream systems coming out of canada...and the medium range models play catch up. Due to these things, we often end up with a stronger high pressure system to pump cold air in, and everything changes. Nothing different this time...just a question of 'how much'. Right now it looks like the trend south and east has come to a hault; models are holding on to the idea of a strong high locked in off the east coast, pumping warm air well ahead of the system.
Several model trends seem to come into play with every system this season. Shortwaves coming out of the pacific always seem stronger, the nothern stream seems to dominate, and things trend faster/further north and west(often after initial shifts to the east, due to the faster, continuous flow of shortwaves upstream). This being said, perhaps this one will come back into the midwest a bit.
Hard to say who, if anyone will see a good snowfall out of this. The initial waves/overrunning set up ahead of this storm may help places from Saint Louis to Indianapolis and Detroit, just like DEC 5 was greatly helped by the first system in the mid-atlantic. Weaker/quicker system = less warm air brought up with more moisture. The delayed phasing idea may continue, however, and not allow this storm to become impressive until it is nearly into Canada, so 'REALLY' good snow may not occur anywhere in the US this time.
I'd pick NE lower michigan as the place to be right now, but much of lower michigan looks like it has a good shot at this point. Just how I see it attm.
Btw, odds were always stacked against a big NE snowstorm...I mean, come on, two years in row? after 69, 78, 02? Nahhhh. Stranger things have happened, but not looking like this'll be one of those times.
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Good reply Squall and i kinda agree... As it hits on what me and upslope have been saying for a couple of days about the models and handling the cold air. And as you put it it really is "amazingly so btw' to hard yet to nail down who will get what with this system. I myself still favor se MI and the other areas a little farther south and north as i have all along the last several days as to who will see a decent snow out of this event.
Tonights 00z runs should hopefully clear alot of this up. We will see i guess.
Tonights 00z runs should hopefully clear alot of this up. We will see i guess.
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WEATHERGURU
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2003 10:09 pm
- Location: Wyandotte, Mi (15 miles south of Detroit)
Thanks guys.
A couple more comments...It's all about figuring out which factors are more important in what situation, and weighing everything out to reach a conclusion/forecast. Just need to have an open mind, watch the details, and gain experience...that and a little 'magic' gut-feeling go a long way. I've gotta keep reminding myself of that, and I could use more of all of it.
Also, i'm beginning to dislike 'modelology<sp>' , but there is something to be said for watching the trends/biases. It's all about looking beyond that, into what the model is really TRYING to depict, and seeing everything flow in watervapor/H5 loops etc.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html ...in case anyone doesn't read this, it's a nice resource. Even if I often don't agree with their final reasoning, the rest of it is useful.
I really hope that the drier parts of Michigan/midwest to Chicago see something good out of this. It's their turn; northeast/mid-atlantics turn to wait and watch, since they've been pretty 'lucky'. I guess it'd be nice if everyone had christmas snow, but oh well.
A couple more comments...It's all about figuring out which factors are more important in what situation, and weighing everything out to reach a conclusion/forecast. Just need to have an open mind, watch the details, and gain experience...that and a little 'magic' gut-feeling go a long way. I've gotta keep reminding myself of that, and I could use more of all of it.
Also, i'm beginning to dislike 'modelology<sp>' , but there is something to be said for watching the trends/biases. It's all about looking beyond that, into what the model is really TRYING to depict, and seeing everything flow in watervapor/H5 loops etc.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html ...in case anyone doesn't read this, it's a nice resource. Even if I often don't agree with their final reasoning, the rest of it is useful.
I really hope that the drier parts of Michigan/midwest to Chicago see something good out of this. It's their turn; northeast/mid-atlantics turn to wait and watch, since they've been pretty 'lucky'. I guess it'd be nice if everyone had christmas snow, but oh well.
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ColdFront77
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