First call for Christmas Eve precip types! 12-21 8:30pm

[therock1811]

Here's my first call for precip types for the upcoming storm! This will be adjusted sometime tomorrow night...Any and all comments welcomed!

[CaluWxBill]

Good call, I think you could expand your rain to snow area to the NW a little, but those areas will still recieve a good bit of snow. looks like it may verify.

[therock1811]

You are probably right...gotta call this as I see it for now...and as of right now, I think I'll have to revise tomorrow night anyway...

[Guest]

Pretty good rock. Agree with most of it except the NE perhaps. Dont see a all snow event for those interior areas of the ne. Other then that i pretty much agree with it......

[therock1811]

Yeah...it all hinges on if we develop any sort of coastal low as far as the interior NE...which is still a possibility IMO...

[CaluWxBill]

Pretty good rock. Agree with most of it except the NE perhaps. Dont see a all snow event for those interior areas of the ne. Other then that i pretty much agree with it......

Thanks for pointing that out. I think alot of that map should be pink, I like the southern boundary, but the Northern Line should probably start in SW MI all the way through to interior New England

[therock1811]

BTW ECMWF is showing some sort of coastal developing around day 5-7...http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

MRF Showing much the same thing?

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/4d/mrf_4panel_4d.gif

[CaluWxBill]

BTW ECMWF is showing some sort of coastal developing around day 5-7...http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

MRF Showing much the same thing?

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/4d/mrf_4panel_4d.gif

I have been very suspect at the way the cod model plots have been turning out like the look at the frame before and after day4 but then look at day 4 it just doesn't match the trend.

[Colin]

RAIN RAIN RAIN!

[StormCrazyIowan]

Ahem, leaving me out in lonely ol Iowa!

[Stormsfury]

BTW ECMWF is showing some sort of coastal developing around day 5-7...http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

MRF Showing much the same thing?

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/4d/mrf_4panel_4d.gif

Jeremy, that's a coastal pocket of colder 850mb temperatures. That low is actually showing a minimum of -3.06ºC, and not an actual SFC feature.

[Stormsfury]

Pretty good rock. Agree with most of it except the NE perhaps. Dont see a all snow event for those interior areas of the ne. Other then that i pretty much agree with it......

Right now, I don't see the NE getting an all-snow event either, due to the fact that most of the precip looks to fall before the arrival of the colder air via the dry slot with the severe NEG TILT of the system. (Ironically the colder air will sweep in from the WSW/SW as the low cuts off ... however, there COULD be a synoptic setup for lake enhanced, and/or pure lake effect in the favored areas with the 850mb temperatures falling well below zero Celsius and some convective potential with steeper lapse rates, but the 850mb winds don't look that impressive. But something to watch ...

SF

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey stormsfury how about the lower lakes area for snowfall? Thanks

[ColdFront77]

The "no snow forecast" for southern New England was out yesterday and Saturday.

[Anonymous]

Sorry rock, but that is going to bust huge. ALmost all rain except for areas in Michigan

[vbhoutex]

I'm not sure how huge it is gonna bust, but I definitely do not see an all snow event for very much of the area. I think the lline RS line will have to be moved more NW. I think the model runs you show are just what SF said. I do not see a low developing anywhere near our coasts with that. JMHO.