First call for Great Lakes/Ohio Valley pre Christmas snows

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WoodstockWX

First call for Great Lakes/Ohio Valley pre Christmas snows

#1 Postby WoodstockWX » Sun Dec 21, 2003 9:34 pm

Don't know if the board is down...hmmm...or if its my comp but the first time I pressed submit it said "page could not be displayed..."

Instead of BSing my way through this and making a broad area from chicago to pittsburgh under "chance for heavy snow", I am going with what I think will be the final solution, meaning I could bust easily, but I feel that the 18z GFS is too far NW with the snows, and that areas like CHC and SW MI could see up to 2 inches, they will likely not see significant accumulations, where on the other hand, I see an axis of 3-6" of snow setting up across the light blue shade with 4-7" for the dark shade, but didn't go with detailed numbers on snowfall totals, only went with CHANCE ratings.

Image
or
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=152995

The new NGM looks scarily close to my late afternoon forecast...hope it doesn't jinx it!!!

Image
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048s.gif
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Dec 21, 2003 9:58 pm

The dry slot looks slated to overtake the area before the cold air arrives behind the severe negative tilting as the low cuts off ...

Image

EURO day 3 RH's ..

EURO day 3 850mb Temperatures - Best RH's in the warm sector where 850mb temperatures are above 0C

EURO day 4 RH's ..

EURO day 4 850mb Termperatures .. - Dry slot punches thru, however, lake enhanced or pure lake effect event could be setting up on the favored LES belt areas (with CAA on a WSW or SW wind, a little unusual in itself), though the 850mb winds aren't exactly impressive ... but with the cutoff around, enhancement is clearly possible.

SF
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#3 Postby Upslope » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:07 pm

Folks, let's face it. The cold air and the northern stream are going to win out on this bad boy! That means the chances for significant snowfall in the OV or lakes are very, very low. That is becoming more clear to me the closer we get to the event.

While the LES may produce some significant snowfall. The synoptics just aren't coming together as we should see mostly frontally produced preciption.

The secondary low looks to be weaker in nature and perhaps a little more to the east of the apps as the northern energy is squashing any major development.

To me, this has major implications on the coming week's weather as we may see this "big" warmup that some have advertised, be very weak. It is also a lesson to us that the cold air is going to find any excuse it can to head southward into the states. Last week, the models had NO cold air for this storm to tap and now the cold air is going to be what kills it (relativly speaking).

This all adds to my concern for a SEVERE cold spell for parts of the country over the next few weeks. Probably in the first 2 weeks of the new year. Add to that a potent STJ that just won't give up and the ingredients are there for significant overruning storms and possible a memorable event.

Take care!
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WoodstockWX

#4 Postby WoodstockWX » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:33 pm

funny how one s2k mod posts an old 00z GFS map thats warm, yet the offical s2k foreast is for snow in the northeast on christmas.

but seriously, my forecast map does go slightly against the GFS, but let's wait until the storm passes to see who busted...
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#5 Postby Guest » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:39 pm

WoodstockWX wrote:funny how one s2k mod posts an old 00z GFS map thats warm, yet the offical s2k foreast is for snow in the northeast on christmas.

but seriously, my forecast map does go slightly against the GFS, but let's wait until the storm passes to see who busted...


EXCUSE ME QUINCY????? Where did I say there was gonna be snow in the NE on xmas??

Not sure what you meant by that but i highly suggest you reply to what i just asked you???
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:40 pm

WoodstockWX wrote:funny how one s2k mod posts an old 00z GFS map thats warm, yet the offical s2k foreast is for snow in the northeast on christmas.

but seriously, my forecast map does go slightly against the GFS, but let's wait until the storm passes to see who busted...


I forgot about the Unisys Maps only updating on the 00z and 12z cycles, however, the jist of the post basically goes against the snow idea in the northeast, (and yes, I disagree with the "official" s2k map for the northeast), and that's the overall blend consensus of the post. But at the same thing, since the ECMWF is only run at 12z, it's a good match up. I don't generally take much stock in the 18z runs anyways.

SF
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:43 pm

king of weather wrote:
WoodstockWX wrote:funny how one s2k mod posts an old 00z GFS map thats warm, yet the offical s2k foreast is for snow in the northeast on christmas.

but seriously, my forecast map does go slightly against the GFS, but let's wait until the storm passes to see who busted...


EXCUSE ME QUINCY????? Where did I say there was gonna be snow in the NE on xmas??

Not sure what you meant by that but i highly suggest you reply to what i just asked you???


KOW, it was therock's maps from earlier, not yours.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:43 pm

Upslope wrote:Folks, let's face it. The cold air and the northern stream are going to win out on this bad boy! That means the chances for significant snowfall in the OV or lakes are very, very low. That is becoming more clear to me the closer we get to the event.

While the LES may produce some significant snowfall. The synoptics just aren't coming together as we should see mostly frontally produced preciption.

The secondary low looks to be weaker in nature and perhaps a little more to the east of the apps as the northern energy is squashing any major development.

To me, this has major implications on the coming week's weather as we may see this "big" warmup that some have advertised, be very weak. It is also a lesson to us that the cold air is going to find any excuse it can to head southward into the states. Last week, the models had NO cold air for this storm to tap and now the cold air is going to be what kills it (relativly speaking).

This all adds to my concern for a SEVERE cold spell for parts of the country over the next few weeks. Probably in the first 2 weeks of the new year. Add to that a potent STJ that just won't give up and the ingredients are there for significant overruning storms and possible a memorable event.


Upslope, check this out.

I don't remember seeing the SOI THIS POSITIVE....

19-Dec-2003-- 1010.96 / 1004.90 / 12.10 / 1.77 / -1.80
20-Dec-2003-- 1012.01 / 1003.20 / 26.40 / 2.83 / -1.29
21-Dec-2003-- 1012.76 / 1001.60 / 38.60 / 4.71 / -0.76
22-Dec-2003-- 1012.06 / 999.80 / 44.30 / 6.99 / -0.21

Signals are pointing towards significant blocking ...

SF
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#9 Postby Upslope » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:46 pm

WOW! That is what I call positive! Like I said... the ingredients are there for perhaps a memorable January!

BTW, are we having fun playing dueling weather boards?! :D
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#10 Postby Guest » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:49 pm

Thanks SF. Sorry woodstock. Yes i am wrong!!!

Just remember i never said anything about snow in the NE............;)

Intresting SF. Looking good for Jan perhaps anyways.
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Dec 21, 2003 10:54 pm

Upslope wrote:WOW! That is what I call positive! Like I said... the ingredients are there for perhaps a memorable January!

BTW, are we having fun playing dueling weather boards?! :D


Yeah ... get ready for another one in a minute or two... :wink:
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#12 Postby therock1811 » Mon Dec 22, 2003 5:22 am

Sorry for the confusion...
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