Upslope wrote:Folks, let's face it. The cold air and the northern stream are going to win out on this bad boy! That means the chances for significant snowfall in the OV or lakes are very, very low. That is becoming more clear to me the closer we get to the event.
While the LES may produce some significant snowfall. The synoptics just aren't coming together as we should see mostly frontally produced preciption.
The secondary low looks to be weaker in nature and perhaps a little more to the east of the apps as the northern energy is squashing any major development.
To me, this has major implications on the coming week's weather as we may see this "big" warmup that some have advertised, be very weak. It is also a lesson to us that the cold air is going to find any excuse it can to head southward into the states. Last week, the models had NO cold air for this storm to tap and now the cold air is going to be what kills it (relativly speaking).
This all adds to my concern for a SEVERE cold spell for parts of the country over the next few weeks. Probably in the first 2 weeks of the new year. Add to that a potent STJ that just won't give up and the ingredients are there for significant overruning storms and possible a memorable event.
Upslope, check this out.
I don't remember seeing the SOI THIS POSITIVE....
19-Dec-2003-- 1010.96 / 1004.90 / 12.10 / 1.77 / -1.80
20-Dec-2003-- 1012.01 / 1003.20 / 26.40 / 2.83 / -1.29
21-Dec-2003-- 1012.76 / 1001.60 /
38.60 / 4.71 / -0.76
22-Dec-2003-- 1012.06 / 999.80 /
44.30 / 6.99 / -0.21
Signals are pointing towards significant blocking ...
SF