12/22/03 SOI +44.30, and ECMWF showing significant blocking

[Stormsfury]

First of all, I posted the first part in another thread (and WWBB), but needed it's own space.

First off, I can't remember seeing the SOI ever going this POSITIVE....

19-Dec-2003-- 1010.96 / 1004.90 / 12.10 / 1.77 / -1.80
20-Dec-2003-- 1012.01 / 1003.20 / 26.40 / 2.83 / -1.29
21-Dec-2003-- 1012.76 / 1001.60 / 38.60 / 4.71 / -0.76
22-Dec-2003-- 1012.06 / 999.80 / 44.30 / 6.99 / -0.21

Signals are pointing towards significant blocking ... and here we go ...

The Day 8-10 three day average of the EURO maybe implying such blocking ...

ECMWF 3 day average - days 8-10

the NAO signs of going NEG along with a 50/50 low...as well as the AO tanking. Did you notice the cutoff SSW of HAWAII? That's a significant rex-blocking signature with the high north of Alaska ... wild setup ... however, the one thing that bothers me is no ridging in Japan, which would help bump heights in Eastern Russia and help induce a little more in the way of cross-polar ... but it's a clear cut start in the right direction.

Anyway, the NAO Ensemble forecast means are unanimous in tanking the NAO. The AO is forecast to go positive in the short term with an ensemble spread from slightly neg to tanking neg.





The EPO is also forecasted to go negative as well, though the PNA is up in the air with the forecast spread after going NEG in the short term ...



The ECMWF's depiction are supporting towards a much colder scenario, possibly just after the onset of the New Year.

SF

[Valkhorn]

Wow, +44... now that is a positive SOI. Things are getting very dicey.

I sure wish I would see some snow this year though.

[Anonymous]

Yeah we might see a major Arctic Outbreak, maybe even an outright Cross Polar flow.

Hello highs in the 20s each day, overnight lows in the teens, and dewpoints zeroed out. Goodbye and good riddance to warm air, and hello ice-covered local ponds, rivers, Potomac River, and even sections of the Chesapeake Bay. Hello also to suppression. Hey South and Southeast, can you say major snow? Hello Big Snow in the OBX! Can you say sound-effect snow?

Many good folks down in the South will see good snows, and they need it, they hardly ever have a good chance for snow. More power to y'all down there!!

I am looking forward to rock-hard ground and ice, ice everywhere on our local bodies of water!!! I hope winds are North at 30 to 50 mph with higher gusts!!! I want some of that REAL Siberian air!!!

HELL YEAH!!!!! I wouldn't mind highs in the TEENS with lows zeroed out and dewpoints in the NEGATIVE 8 to 15 range!!!!! I want my COLD!!! I want my ICE!!!!! Too Bad if you don't like Winter!!! Get yer backside down to the Bahamas!!!! I WANT CATASTROPHIC COLD WEATHER!!!! I want pipes BUSTED!!! Water Main BREAKS ALL OVER Washington DC!!!!

YEAH BABY, I am seriously OUT OF CONTROL!!! I am now in Full Winter Mode!!!! I want my severe, severe COLD!!!! No MERCY whatsoever!!!! Too Bad if you think I'm nuts!!! Get on a plane and head 1500 miles South cos it's gonna get SUPER cold!!! SOI of 44.00!!!!!!!!

BRING IT!!!!! I don't want any mercy at all!! I want the whole Full Frigid Jacket LOL!!

Hey King of Weather!!! Am I Back with the Winter program enough for ya?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Siberian Cold JEB!!!!!!! BRING IT ON!!!! We're READY!!! YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!

[Upslope]

Eveyone, please check out the latest GEM run for New Years week! Major blocking and arctic air invading the states by 240 with a significant overruning event for much of the country! I have a post on WWBB that has maps for you to view!

[WEATHERGURU]

could I get the link to the GEM model? Thanks

[Upslope]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdk_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdf_50.gif

[Suzi Q]

Jeb, as most of this discussion is WAY too technical for me, can you elaborate on snow chances for the south and southeast that you alluded to? Specifically, you got a rough idea where in the South, like could I see some here in Houston? And a time frame please. Sorry, but I'm just a beginning met student and like I said, the discussion is almost like greek to me and I need it put in "bozohead" terms. Thanks in advance ya'll.

[JCT777]

SF - nice discussion. Things look to get very interesting beyond the end of this year.

[Anonymous]

Jeb, as most of this discussion is WAY too technical for me, can you elaborate on snow chances for the south and southeast that you alluded to? Specifically, you got a rough idea where in the South, like could I see some here in Houston? And a time frame please. Sorry, but I'm just a beginning met student and like I said, the discussion is almost like greek to me and I need it put in "bozohead" terms. Thanks in advance ya'll.

Hey eb, I am a met beginner too. However, when we get a so-called Cross-Polar flow, that means there will be a tremendous amount of cold air coming down not only from the North Pole, but also from super-super-cold places such as Siberia.

With that kind of very cold air in place, the northern Jet stream tends to suppress any storm tracks south.

What that means for folks for you down in the south is that it will get very cold down there, cold enough for accumulating snow, and the storms will track in such a way that the Deep South will get significant snowfall. Indications are that it may be so cold that the south will not only get really good snows, but it will stay cold enough for the snow to hang around for days and not melt.

This could turn out to be a really nice, memorable winter for the south!!

I think it will be so cold down in South TX that a low pressure system down there could interact with the very cold air and bring snow to Houston, Austin, New Orleans, Pascagoula MS, places like that. Folks down there could even see Lake-Effect snow from Lake Pontchartrain. It's gonna get real cold, even way down south. I think this could occur sometime in the first 2 weeks of January 2004.


-Jeb

[jpp5862]

Very interesting post Jeb, I hope things pan out like you have described. Would this type of arctic outbreak be similar to that of January 1985 (or maybe 1986)? I was a kid then, living in southwestern Virginia and remember temps of -20 F for a couple of days.

I don't need anything that cold for sure, but would love something that would give us some significant snowfall here in NC.

Thanks for the post.

[Anonymous]

what about New Jersey, like ocean county and points south, do the models look good for us?

[GAStorm]

What that means for folks for you down in the south is that it will get very cold down there, cold enough for accumulating snow, and the storms will track in such a way that the Deep South will get significant snowfall. Indications are that it may be so cold that the south will not only get really good snows, but it will stay cold enough for the snow to hang around for days and not melt.

This could turn out to be a really nice, memorable winter for the south!!

Thanks for the info Jeb. I sure hope your right on this. The last time we had snow stick around for more than a day was in '96. Would be nice to get some extra time off work during the holidays!

[Suzi Q]

Jeb,
YOU HAVE MADE MY DAY!!!! No, I won't hold my breath on it, but just hearing that there's an actual chance we might get some of the "white stuff" is enough for me to start doing the snow dance!!! Thanks for interpreting it for me!!

EB4480

[Anonymous]

Jeb,
YOU HAVE MADE MY DAY!!!! No, I won't hold my breath on it, but just hearing that there's an actual chance we might get some of the "white stuff" is enough for me to start doing the snow dance!!! Thanks for interpreting it for me!!

EB4480

No Problem, eb!!! I want that cold air too eb, and I'll be doing the snow dance too!! I hope the south has a record snowy winter!! It's high time you did!!!
Enjoy it!!

JEB!!!!!!!!!! BRING ON THAT FRIGID WEATHER!! Give eb and other southerners all the snow they can handle and MORE!!! YEAH!!!!

[Valkhorn]

I wish, Jeb, if that happens I'll definately remember you for next Christmas.

[Anonymous]

Very interesting post Jeb, I hope things pan out like you have described. Would this type of arctic outbreak be similar to that of January 1985 (or maybe 1986)? I was a kid then, living in southwestern Virginia and remember temps of -20 F for a couple of days.

I don't need anything that cold for sure, but would love something that would give us some significant snowfall here in NC.

Thanks for the post.

Hey jpp, I remember Jan 21 1985 very well, we had a high of +2 degrees, that's without the wind, and a low of -14 degrees. MAN that was very cold!!

I think that may be a possibility jpp, that we might see that kind of cold. IF we do, I guarantee you we'll get snow in Jan and/or Feb. The kinds of snows we would get might make PD2 in 2003 look like a mere 4-inch event.. If I'm right about this year's heavy rainfalls translating into equivalent snows this winter, we could get BURIED!!! We could be talking RECORD snows here.

THINK SNOW!!! THINK FRIGID COLD!! THINK VERY HEAVY SNOW!!!!


SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

January 21st, 1985, eh?

I remember it well also in Charleston ... How about 6º for a low? (All-time CHS record) ...

How did it happen? Find out HERE.

SF

[jpp5862]

Thanks for validating my memory Jeb. I am definitely thinking cold and snow. I know it's unusual for Charlotte, NC to have to big snows in back to back years (had about 8" in February of last year, not to mention the major ice storm in December), but anything can happen and I'm definitely looking forward to colder weather and snow.

Let's hope it materializes!

[jpp5862]

Thanks too SF for the link, I have seen that page on your website before. Great website you have up with tons of interesting links and info. Keep up the good work!