Hmmmmmm 18z ETA???? South we go!

[Guest]

Now this is a bit more different. Well as of late it was. Ask me and it looks like its headed back to where it was about 4 to 7 days ago? ULL Farther south and east as well????About the only thing missing right now is the deep moisture that it had back days ago..........Perhaps a suprise instore for a few???? Cant wait to see how this goes later tonight when the 00z runs take another stab at it........This btw does suggest snow perhaps from Albany on west and northwest. The NE gang is gonna love this one .

Intresting trend to say the least. Yesterday it had the ULL in MI and today its in IN, OH headed into PA as that shows below???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/fp0_066.shtml

[Guest]

Now as far as the GFS goes it shows a somewhat farther south trend as well. I will add as well on one of the time frames it briefly shows a apps low in PA........... Most notably on both models is the lack of precip now showing up in part of sw MI and a renewed growing areas to the east which is worrisome because some could be in for a suprise if these models do what i think they are gonna do and thats go back to what i stated above.

Another intresting thing i have noticed is it now looks like from water vapor images that our ULL looks to be developing where the models showed it days ago which is down south near the OK/TX panhandles. Perhaps im seeing too much into that ULL but that would have a big affect IMO upstream towards the OV as far as a potential snowstorm goes!

Either way i find it very intresting how the models are headed back to what they were a few days ago when they showed a big hit on the OV and now what i think is our "Closed" ULL now forming to the south instead of up by the Lakes...........

Anyone agree or disagree?????

[Anonymous]

I agree. Does this trend mean that the Mid Atlantic is in for more and heavier rain?



JEB

[Stormsfury]

Looking at animated maps from NCEP, it clearly looks like lake enhancement gets involved (and it's picked up by the ETA) on the western side of the ULL, especially in NY (Buffalo), otherwise, in the OV, QPF's look rather light (exceptions are the favored snowbelt areas too localized to pick up), however, this is not a huge event, but the lake effect/enhancement may be quite a story for the prolonged period of it.

SF

[Guest]

Looking at animated maps from NCEP, it clearly looks like lake enhancement gets involved (and it's picked up by the ETA) on the western side of the ULL, especially in NY (Buffalo), otherwise, in the OV, QPF's look rather light (exceptions are the favored snowbelt areas too localized to pick up), however, this is not a huge event, but the lake effect/enhancement may be quite a story for the prolonged period of it.

SF

Good point which i wont argue with. My point is the trend i noticed as well as the Water Vapor loops earlier. Yesterday for the most part all the models showed the ULL closed off in the northern Lakes which today shows it farther south in IN, OH and headed into PA which could make the finally result of who gets what with regard to snowfall a different story. And from the looks of them loops it appears to me that we have a pretty good circulation down around the TX/OK area which no model has showed this except for a few days ago when everyone was hyping the OV snowthreat.....
I pretty much agree that the LE snowbelts are gonna get the majority of this but i do think from what i have atleast seen that some farther south could get a bit more then is beeing advertised and others farther west could get less. I could be wrong but its some worth keeping a eye out on especially with regards to the 00z model runs. I will be very intrested to see how they handle our little southern system "Feature" or what becomes of it??????

[Stormsfury]

That southern stream feature seems quite vigorous tonight with the severe weather that's breaking out in Eastern OK, Western AR. It is still possible that the models are mishandling this feature somewhat.

SF

[stormraiser]

SF, NWS Buffalo is watching this one closely. They've seen the models with the LES and they are concerned if it does verify. Is it really that much?

[Stormsfury]

SF, NWS Buffalo is watching this one closely. They've seen the models with the LES and they are concerned if it does verify. Is it really that much?

Looks like it's going to be a pretty big deal based on the observations I've seen coming from there. (I had a gut feeling.)

SF