Last call for OV/GL rain to snow event

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WoodstockWX

Last call for OV/GL rain to snow event

#1 Postby WoodstockWX » Mon Dec 22, 2003 6:40 pm

Used a combo of GFS MOS and ETA 40km temps, ra/sn lines and precip totals. Have not used the EXACT temps and snowfall from these models, but it gave me a good idea, and of course I took temps, own gut opinion and other things into consideration.

Jackpot looks to be MI, where much of the lower peninsula will see 2-5" with locally slightly greater amounts from enhanced lake effect snows over the "thumb".

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#2 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Dec 22, 2003 6:45 pm

Nice work on the map woodstock :-)
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#3 Postby JCT777 » Tue Dec 23, 2003 9:32 am

Good work, Quincy. Hope it verifies for the folks in MI.
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#4 Postby roarusdogus » Tue Dec 23, 2003 9:50 am

your forecast is going to bust horribly.
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#5 Postby JCT777 » Tue Dec 23, 2003 9:55 am

roarusdogus wrote:your forecast is going to bust horribly.


Have they dramatically reduced the forecasted snow accums in MI?
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#6 Postby roarusdogus » Tue Dec 23, 2003 9:58 am

An inch or less is the forecast. I think even that may be stretching it. It is all rain, just no cold air. It's 33 and rain here right now. Yuck!!
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#7 Postby JCT777 » Tue Dec 23, 2003 10:01 am

Sorry to hear about that, roar. I know the feeling all too well of expecting decent snows and getting little or none.
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#8 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Dec 23, 2003 10:13 am

roarusdogus wrote:your forecast is going to bust horribly.


When you make a brash statement like this, please back it up with some reasons/facts, even if it is only what the NWS in that area is saying. It is much more helpful to understand why it might bust so the facts that are causing the bust vs what is anticipated by the persons study and reasearch can be compared(for themselves at a minimum).
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#9 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Dec 23, 2003 1:36 pm

WINTER STORM WATCH
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1102 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2003

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO NEAR CLEVELAND OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE
LOW MOVES BY. AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MIZ056-064-071-072-232300-
ALLEGAN-KALAMAZOO-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND HAVEN...HOLLAND...KALAMAZOO...SOUTH
HAVEN
1102 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALLEGAN...OTTAWA... VAN BUREN
AND KALAMAZOO COUNTIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM
6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. MOTORISTS TRAVELING IN
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-131 ARE URGED TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EVENT.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
HAZARDOUS WINTER STORM EVENT IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

JK

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#10 Postby roarusdogus » Tue Dec 23, 2003 1:45 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
roarusdogus wrote:your forecast is going to bust horribly.


When you make a brash statement like this, please back it up with some reasons/facts, even if it is only what the NWS in that area is saying. It is much more helpful to understand why it might bust so the facts that are causing the bust vs what is anticipated by the persons study and reasearch can be compared(for themselves at a minimum).


you want me to back it up? I live in the area he had painted as heaviest snow. It's 1:40PM and it's still raining. There is some snow in the higher elevations but that's it. It's rain, the boundary layer is just too warm. i live here, I know!!
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#11 Postby roarusdogus » Tue Dec 23, 2003 1:49 pm

Quincy, that watch has nothing to do with the storm. the watch is for lake effect. You busted bad. End of story.
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#12 Postby therock1811 » Tue Dec 23, 2003 2:35 pm

Here's my final call...
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WoodstockWX

#13 Postby WoodstockWX » Tue Dec 23, 2003 2:56 pm

roarusdogus wrote:Quincy, that watch has nothing to do with the storm. the watch is for lake effect. You busted bad. End of story.

my map is valid from this morning through tomorrow morning, I even meantioned highest amounts with lake effect/enhancement.
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#14 Postby Anonymous » Tue Dec 23, 2003 4:03 pm

Sorry woodstock, better stick with the northeast. Your foercast is busting horriably. LES doesn't affect a widespread area, but generally very localized. your map may be right in a few counties, but for the most part is was a huge bust.
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#15 Postby Guest » Tue Dec 23, 2003 4:12 pm

Whole different ballgame out this way Quincy. Trust me i have had to find this out the hard way myself.

Perhaps next time you will do better. Just gottan watch those LE areas and exactly and i do mean exactly where the low itself is going because beeing on the westside of the apps and having the lakes around changes things drastically in this region.
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#16 Postby Upslope » Tue Dec 23, 2003 4:14 pm

Rock,

Gor much farther south and east with the snow into SE ky WVA and into pa. Those areas will see 1-3 through Christmas morning with upslope snow showers!
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