Oh, boy...DEEP low pressure advertised in Central Atlantic .

[Stormsfury]

Oh, boy...DEEP low pressure advertised in Central Atlantic ... on the 00z global runs this morning in about 3 days ...

First off, this would have serious implications of poking up that dreaded SE ridge...and that the ECMWF was first to pick up on this idea of Central Atlantic cutoff.

Anyways, no this isn't (shouldn't) become any tropical entity, however, the 00z CMC develops a cutoff, which the idea is supported by the 00z GFS/00z NOGAPS and yesterday's 12z ECMWF.

Out of the globals, only the CMC (and to some degree, the NOGAPS) give indications of potentially becoming subtropical ... albeit briefly.

Recent SOI indices were through the roof peaking at 44.30, the highest that I've seen it (highest it's been in 3 years).

00z 12/25/03 GFS MSLP run

00z 12/25/03 GFS 950mb Vorticity ... - the GFS keeps an occluded frontal structure at the surface -

However, the Canadian differs somewhat...

00z 12/25/03 CMC MSLP ... - Deep low pressure also depicted spinning up in the Central Atlantic.

00z 12/25/03 CMC 925mb Vorticity ... - Frontal structure as well, but look at the very end of the vorticity loop ... quite interesting, isn't it?

NOGAPS is also similar, except that it takes the low right over Bermuda ... (time sensitive link) - NOGAPS MSLP, 10 m winds loop

And the ECMWF Loop...
ECMWF 12/24/03 12z run

Once again, this shouldn't become anything tropically speaking, but a large oceanic storm will have implications, along with increasing blocking signatures may set up conditions down the road for a major arctic intrusion in early-mid January.

EDIT: The UKMET is WAY further east on the 00z run with the Central Atlantic Low and nowhere near as deep and is an outlier

00z UKMET 12/25/03 MSLP run

Merry Christmas.

SF

[george_r_1961]

Could be a subtropical type system in the making. It shouldnt directly affect any land areas but its indirect effects could be interesting.

[Stormsfury]

The 12z runs are just as interesting..

The UKMET has come further west, the NOGAPS is the most interesting ... completely cutting off the low and pretty much holding it status quo. (quite a change of positions from the 00z run).

Both the 18z ETA and the 18z GFS still poke up a massive SE ridge with the 576dm line well into NYC on Sunday (warm temperatures quite possible).

SF

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS has mentioned this low forming from last tuesday in reference to the indirect effects that Puerto Rico will see this weekend from rain to high swells but in terms of something tropical from this low I agree with you Mike that no tropical development from this but a good gale center may form here .



http://storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw3.cg ... n&state=PR

[Stormsfury]

Looking at the latest 12z guidance on 12/26/03 ... no longer keeps that cutoff feature in the ATL, and should have different effects on sensible weather in the East. The screaming PAC Jet absolutely will not allow for anything to even cutoff for prolonged periods of time.

Models continue to have a difficult time with the weather pattern as run to run continuity continues to differ greatly with each successive run.

SF

[Hurricanehink]

A bit of convection is flaring up around the system. A really big hmm... A circulation exists, but it isn't too pronounced. Water temperatures are warm for December, around 78º. If this system persists...............

[mitchell]

NOGAPS is also similar, except that it takes the low right over Bermuda

The feature at 28n 40w gets to Bermuda?? How does it get by that massive front? Or is it another system you guys are talking about?

[Stormsfury]

NOGAPS is also similar, except that it takes the low right over Bermuda

The feature at 28n 40w gets to Bermuda?? How does it get by that massive front? Or is it another system you guys are talking about?

It was another system (presumably in response to the cutoff low from a s/w riding along the southern stream, however that system was crushed/sheared out in the confluent zone (and dried out).

This is the 500mb progs from the GFS on 12/25/03 at 00z.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

[Stormsfury]

BTW, that area out there in the East Central Atlantic is quite impressive, however, NON tropical. It's analyzed at 1011 mb and partially embedded within a ridge. SST's aren't very warm in that area, and the environment is cyclonic around the low. Subtropical development couldn't be ruled out, IF the SST's were warmer. Interesting feature, but the trough approaching it absorbs it in a couple of days.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[Josephine96]

Nice to see we can still discuss things in this forum..By the way.. this is the 43000th post in this forum

[msbee]

never say "never" when it comes to the tropics

[cycloneye]

Well Mike the latest discussion at 7:05 PM analizes a 1001 mb gale center in the central atlantic but of course nothing tropical from this.Here in PR we are feeling pretty cool temps with a good north breeze that is caused by that gale.

[Stormsfury]

Well Mike the latest discussion at 7:05 PM analizes a 1001 mb gale center in the central atlantic but of course nothing tropical from this.Here in PR we are feeling pretty cool temps with a good north breeze that is caused by that gale.

Yeah, there's two substantial lows out there right now ... check out this 24 hour IR loop...

http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/a ... loope.html