NWS New Orleans discussion

[timNms]

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
AM GROWING INCREASINGLY SUSPICIOUS OF MODEL PERFORMANCE OF LATE DUE
TO SEVERAL FACTORS. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF POLAR JET STREAM MAXIMA
ARE WAY OFF ON VELOCITIES AS MEASURED ELEMENTS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN ARE IN EXCESS OF 160 KT WHILE
MODELS TOP OUT AT AROUND 120 KT. THIS IS A MUCH RICHER FLOW AND
CONDUCIVE TO BUCKLING OF THE MASS FLOW PATTERN OVER TIME. THIS
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. YUKON AND MID-ALASKA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE -25 TO -35F RANGE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE -15 TO -20F RANGE OVER SAME AREA.
THIS IS INDICATIVE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS POOLING THAT TYPICALLY WORKS
INTO THE MAINLAND U.S. IN A 7 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...WHILE LATCHING ON TO SUCH A SCENARIO SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...HAVE ABANDONED THIS THINKING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE WHAT
IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THE RELUCTANCE OF THE MODELS TO HANDLE THE
CURRENT TRENDS PROPERLY. THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS AND
EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE FORECAST ENDEAVOR HAVE BEEN PLACING AN
EMPHASIS ON A POTENTIAL ARCTIC AIRMASS INTRUSION TO POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE GULF STATES DURING THE JANUARY 1-4 TIME FRAME. STILL BELIEVE
THIS TO BE THE CASE AND WILL BE MONITORING FOR THIS SCENARIO VERY
CLOSELY IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. CAUTION SHOULD BE GIVEN IN PLACING TOO
MUCH CREEDANCE INTO ANY ONE MODEL RUN SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS RAPID HEMISPHERIC PATTERN CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN
CONFIDENCE IN MODEL PERFORMANCE. OPERATIONALLY...WILL MAINTAIN A
CONSENSUS POSTURE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IN THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST
PERIOD IN HOPES THAT MODELS COME AROUND IN THINKING TOWARDS A COLDER
SOLUTION IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

[stormraiser]

Great, Tim, maybe Bonnie and Ticka and everyone else down there will get some snow. Oh, and Lindaloo, and Gulfbreezer and...........

[CajunMama]

Snow???? Possibly around New Years Day? If so that would be the 3rd time in 4 years it will have snowed on New Years Day here in Lafayette! What are the odds of that happening!!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Kathy probably close to one in a million lol! That was crazy to have snow for new years 2 years in a row though.

[Mr Bob]

I hate to reference a WWBB thread, but larry is our SE resident climo-statistician and has done some pretty thorough analysis showing that the likelihood of Alaska sourced cold air has little chance of plunging into the SE...lets wait for more of that Canada bred air before we get too excited....

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/s...&threadid=15888

[Stormsfury]

I hate to reference a WWBB thread, but larry is our SE resident climo-statistician and has done some pretty thorough analysis showing that the likelihood of Alaska sourced cold air has little chance of plunging into the SE...lets wait for more of that Canada bred air before we get too excited....

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/s...&threadid=15888

Mr. Bob - there isn't anything wrong referencing a WWBB thread, especially when it's Larry's climatological stats. Larry does occasionally post here with stats and thanks for digging those back up. Unfortunately, that thread isn't the complete URL name for that one (it's abbreviated, and comes up with a forbidden message), but I know which one you're talking about.

And yes, most all of the Arctic Outbreaks or arctic intrusions do NOT come from the NW Territories all the way into the East, but from Eastern Canada. The most effective way to sustain cold air in the Northeast, and the East in general is a damming high from Eastern Canada with a strong -NAO to help lock things down.

We're going to have to get rid of that Screaming Pacific Jet to have better chances of sustainable cold, and frankly, I don't see it happening anytime soon ...

SF

[StormCrazyIowan]

I can't imagine y'all getting snow when our temps are forecasted to be well above normal all next week!! But....I know about as much as my cats do about weather, so good luck!!