NWS New Orleans still mentioning arctic air

[timNms]

Oddly enough, surrounding offices (Mobile, Memphis, Jackson) are not mentioning anything about arctic air.. link: http://kamala.cod.edu/ms/
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
PICKING UP FROM ABOVE...STILL HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MODELS NOW DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST GULF BUT IN A WARM REGIME. THIS WAS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BASED
ON THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS SCHEME AND EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE
FORECASTING ENDEAVOR. WHAT IS NOT BEING RECOGNIZED WAS AN
ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE YUKON THAT
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE NATION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT SUGGEST
ARCTIC AIR IS AMASSING OVER THE YUKON AND ALASKA ALREADY. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT CLOSELY AND MARVEL AT THE MODEL
VARIABILITY (UNCERTAINTY) WITH THIS REGIME FROM RUN TO RUN.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know who does the statements for the NWS in New Orleans but at least he has the guts to say it. He or She is saying it by what he sees then by models runs that swing like a monkey.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the New Orleans discussion post. I keep waiting to see mention of this much-ballyhooed arctic outbreak from Texas mets in their discussions but have seen nothing.

Usually Brownsville's forecast office pays close attention in winter to potential arctic airmasses due to their agricultural concerns ... but they haven't said a peep about this potential change.

Also, I know that Bastardi@Accuwx and WxRisk have hinted this big cold spell is on the way, but the GFS and Euro don't seem to indicate it.

I'm wondering what some of our S2K winter experts have to say about this.

Meanwhile, to those of you with snow this Christmas, enjoy!! I'm going to get back to our low 60s and drizzle/fog ... yawn.

[wrkh99]

Cold air has been deylayed

[Stormsfury]

Here the rest of that morning discussion, and it's very detailed and technical.

FXUS64 KLIX 260935
AFDNEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2003

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE VIRGA STORM ONGOING OVER THE AREA WITH RADAR
OVER-DRAMATIZING THE PRECIPITATION...NONE OF WHICH IS HITTING THE
GROUND. THE PRECIPITATION COLUMN SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO ABOVE 12KFT
AS A VERY DEEP STABLE LAYER RESIDES BENEATH THIS RATHER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TO
ROLL TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BY TOMORROW. FEEL THAT
AREA CLOUDINESS WILL BE DIMINISHING ONCE THE LOBE MOVES EAST OF
MOBILE BAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH SEVERAL FEATURES...EVEN
OVERPLAYING AN ISENTROPIC LIFT SITUATION OVER UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
BEND WHICH IS NOT MATERIALIZING. THE NEXT FEATURE FOR SUNDAY IS ALSO
SHOWING UNUSUAL BEHAVIOR FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE MODELS WANT TO TAKE
THE DEVELOPING WEST U.S. SYSTEM AND EJECT IT NNW TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN THEREBY BECOMING FRONTOLYTIC BEFORE
REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A RARE...IF NOT UNPRECEDENTED...
OCCURRENCE FOR SO LATE IN THE YEAR. MODELS ARE HAVING A TIME WITH
THIS HARMONIC WAVE 6 THAT IS SUPERIMPOSED ON A WAVE 3 PATTERN.

AT THIS TIME...WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY BUT WILL
LOWER POPS FOR SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY FOR SUNDAY BUT
MAY BE TOO BOLD A MOVE. MAINTAINING 10-20 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY TO
BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THEN RESUMING WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AGAIN WITH DIMINISHING
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
PICKING UP FROM ABOVE...STILL HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED
PERIOD AS MODELS NOW DEPICT A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST GULF BUT IN A WARM REGIME. THIS WAS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BASED
ON THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS SCHEME AND EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE
FORECASTING ENDEAVOR. WHAT IS NOT BEING RECOGNIZED WAS AN
ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE YUKON THAT
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE NATION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT SUGGEST
ARCTIC AIR IS AMASSING OVER THE YUKON AND ALASKA ALREADY. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT CLOSELY AND MARVEL AT THE MODEL
VARIABILITY (UNCERTAINTY) WITH THIS REGIME FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&