Artic Chill Headed For You? (((Jan Thoughts for the US)))

[Guest]

In most cases from the Westcoast to the Eastcoast Yes. The question is when?

After examining the models yesterday and today i have some ideas as to when.

I will first start out by saying that i cannot for the life of me believe why so many are saying that there wont be any cold air in the east for Jan. BS and i do disagree as you will see why below.

Time frame for artic cold!
Lets start with the West/Rockies who by the New Year should be headed into the artic chill. It will start out with a huge precip maker comming in from the pacific that should hook up with a disturbance dropping in from Canada that should get a pretty wild winterstorm going in the rockies and as well help pull in the artic chill down thru western Canada and into the Pacific NW and then down the westcoast and into the rockies down to the SW. Alot of the higher areas from AZ/NM north to the Canadian boarder should fare very well in the snow dept from this which is great news for alot of these areas that are in the midst of one of "if not" the worst drought in US history! Already as seen by another post here by Dennis (azsnowman)and others out west the pattern has begun to change and he for one will have plenty of the white stuff by the end of next week while areas in California get soaking rains and in some cases as seen already flooding rains that will really increase the threat for more mudslides!!!!!!
This i expect to last right into the first couple of days of the New Year!

Most models are in agreement on this out west. GFS,EC, GGEM.

Now what starts out west is bound to usually head east which for the most part alot of the action/cold will just in pieces as it will take a bit of time to break down that SE ridge which will happen just perhaps not quick as some would like that like the snow and cold in the eastern areas.

IMO the first week of Jan will be very topsy turvey from the Central US to the NE with the artic chill slowly but surely starting to make its way into these areas. The Northern Plains should begin to feel this around the new Year and get progressivly colder in the first week of the new year and from there begin to make its way east and south so that by Jan 10 the cold air should be in most areas of the Eastern US with perhaps the exception of the SE here that stubbern ridge will be hanging on for dear life but by midmonth should relax a bit to let the artic air penetrate all the way to the Gulfcoast. Alot of areas from the upper plains east to the Lakes sould benifit well in the snow dept as system after system should be cutting a path from CO ne to the Lakes in the next ten days or so and in between and this should as well slowly make its way east with the storm track setting up eventually in the southern plains up into the eastern OV/Apps and into the western areas of the NE by day 10 and afterwards perhaps a even farther south & east storm track by the Second week of Jan after which the cold air should have a pretty good grip from the Plains to the midwest/Lakes, OV, and into The MA/NE. I believe we will have a major winterstorm in the first ten days of Jan which should be the system to get the cold air really cranking in the Eastern US and as well will leave alot of people somewhere from the Midwest/Lakes over into the OV/Apps perhaps buried in alot of snow!!!!!!

IMO by the third week of Jan is when the artic air will make its way to the se US giving these areas thier best shot at some snowfall this winter with a supressed storm track setting up!!!!

Right now the EC, (GFS-To a degree... Kinda screwed in a way because its showing things that would argue against this but i think its clueless anyways and i think those things its showing to argue against the cold are BS. Meaning the cold air will come but those anaomalies will correct themselves up in AK and elsewhere that show otherwise!) GGEM pretty much agrees as well.

Either way dont give up hope yet in the east guys because i do believe by midmonth the cold air wil be taken over the eastern US..........And you guys out west be SURE to enjoy what you will be getting for the next week or so. Its way long over do!

All in all i think the month of Jan most of the US will see its share of storms and the artic chill as well starting out west in the begining to of the month and then the eastern areas in the second half of the month!!!!!!

[GAStorm]

Great post KOW! I think you might be right about the SE getting a delayed visit of arctic air due to the ridge. Hopefully by the second week of Jan the cold will start to filter further south. Let's hope that pacific jet lets up!

[Stormsfury]

Good post, KOW.

The variability continues to show strongly, and the models are no exception with the variability. While the models have been in general agreement out west, run to run continuity continues to lack due to one thing ... the PAC JET... and until we can get the PAC JET to ease off, and/or split, we can continue to see 1) difficulties in run to run continuity. 2) continued variability in the sensible weather.

Now, that the SE ridge is about to set up shop, it will be very difficult to get arctic air into the SE and climo states a strong case for this. Most of the prolonged periods of arctic air in the Southeast actually comes from damming scenarios from highs in Eastern Canada, and not from the NW Territories. (great research from LarryWx).

SF

[aveosmth]

You talked about a major weather maker for the Southwest.....im here in Los Angeles....will this be a colder storm, or one that will tap into some tropical moisture & be warmer?

[Guest]

Good post, KOW.

The variability continues to show strongly, and the models are no exception with the variability. While the models have been in general agreement out west, run to run continuity continues to lack due to one thing ... the PAC JET... and until we can get the PAC JET to ease off, and/or split, we can continue to see 1) difficulties in run to run continuity. 2) continued variability in the sensible weather.

Now, that the SE ridge is about to set up shop, it will be very difficult to get arctic air into the SE and climo states a strong case for this. Most of the prolonged periods of arctic air in the Southeast actually comes from damming scenarios from highs in Eastern Canada, and not from the NW Territories. (great research from LarryWx).

SF

Agreed with the PAC JET! It has been the cause of most of the problems with the models and such. However looking down the road it "appears" that it wants to split. We will see.

The Se ridge i know all to well about "unfortunatly" from living on the MA coast. And yes the colder outbreaks down that way usually does come from eastern Canada which looking out at some of the models shows some decent artic air headed to that part of Canada in the next couple of weeks. Just gonna take a few weeks to break down that ridge but i do think it will happen by the 3rd week or so of Jan...

BTW was looking at these earlier and thought hmmmmmmm. Yet again! LOL

NAO ........Slowly but surely headed into the tank! Would kinda back my thoery about the cold artic air slowly but surely making its way east in Jan.



PNA .........Which is headed deep into the Tank by the new year which does explain the artic chill comming out west. After which it starts to head upwards after the first of the new year? Question is how far up does it go?


AO. Which looks to be headed for a negative stage!


Those arent etched in stone either but do provide a good look at the up comming week or so.

BTW below is a little enso update. Notice anything???????

sst's from around the globe.


sst's anomalies !

[therock1811]

Interesting indeed...sounds like I'll be going from "hot"(i.e. upper 50's/near 60°?) to the freezer!

[Guest]

Interesting indeed...sounds like I'll be going from "hot"(i.e. upper 50's/near 60°?) to the freezer!

Thing to remember Rock is that this isnt gonna happen overnight. Gonna come in slowly but surely and perhaps full strength by midmonth! This doesnt mean btw that we couldnt see a shot at some snow on occasions when the temp cool downs visit us at times before the bigger chill by mid month!

[Anonymous]

So basically what you're saying is that northern Virginia will probably see about a week of real cold, perhaps some snow, but that overall for us, January will likely overall be an average to very likely about 1 or 2 degrees above average month for Virginia.

Do I have the gist of it, or is this just another dumb weenie post that should have never been posted lol?



-JEB...Snowless in N VA and resigned to it (after all folks, we DID get more than our share of it last FEB.......

[Anonymous]

In my experience here on the MA, this is what I have learned about cold in January..................

IF IT IS GONNA HAPPEN, it happens within the first two weeks of the month. The THAW hits the 3rd week. That's it, plain and simple.

Basically, if the SE Ridge holds tough to about Jan 16, we'll have a mild winter compared to the Plains and West and NE, because then we'll get the thaw and REALLY mild weather. Then Feb could feature a little snow, but the real cold will be over with.

I just knew I should never have gotten myself so durn excited about snow this month.

I KNOW lots of snow and cold in December always means milder in Jan and Feb. I've lived here for 30 years and weather-related physics never changes.

It'll hold true this winter too. Maybe we'll have a real bad winter........ in 2017........ oh well.........I'll only be in late middle age lol

However folks, if you live in the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and in the northeast north and east of about Boston, I wouldn't let your guard down yet.......................YOU ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED to get cold and snow, bad winter, mild winter or whatever. I am 99% certain that the northern tier of the US is in fact facing a very severe winter. It's just that the SE Ridge will basically keep places like N VA at or just a whisker above normal through most of Jan. Result: MUCH less snow than last winter, lots of rainfall and a 4 inch snow or two, but basically an average winter if that.

If you live in the Mid Atlantic, if you don't remember anything else, remember this, you can take it to the bank: IF ITS COLDER and/or SNOWIER than norm in DECEMBER, then you should have an average or milder Jan and Feb.

It's called Nature averaging things out.

Midwest, upper OV, upper TV, NE, N Plains, Northern Rockies batten down the hatches. The SE Ridge will contribute to MAJOR development of big dogg blizzards in your regions. For the most part, these big dog storms will be rain in the MA. We will get a couple 4 inchers, but this is no severe winter for us. The SE Ridge will stay put; even if it does recede a little south, we will still get rain or light snow.


JEB

[Anonymous]

Another thing I just remembered:

If you do a little basic research, you'll notice something:

In years when the arctic air settles in the Plains and Midwest, the East (read: MA) will have milder weather. The milder weather in the East sharpens the trough in the middle of the country, thus the middle of the country will have a really frigid winter while the East will fare better. We'll have a few cold spells here, but nothing to write home about. If you live in Iowa, places like that, watch out: It's about to turn extremely cold. Sure the cold air tends to move east, but the SE Ridge will modify those air masses over places like the MA and SE. We will make nice recoveries after each Arctic surge. It's all about Climo folks. You want cold wx you gotta move north. (Or wait VERY patiently; the next big dog year for me hits about 2015-2019 lol) I won't get to do that, so I just have to make the best of things, you know, if Life gives you lemons, you make lemonade and sweeten it good. We'll have lower fuel bills this winter.

Midwest and Plains..........Batten down the hatches.......Save your fuel money...................You'll need it!!!!! Prices will be sky-high for the next 2 to 3 months.

[Anonymous]

Gee I'm on a roll here tonight.....

THE MOUNTAINS.

East of the mountains, the SE Ridge will tend to average things out, moderating the worst of the arctic surges.

This winter if you live west of the Appalachians, it's gonna favor you like you wouldn't believe. You will get the arctic air, and you will get the mild overrunning from the SE Ridge over us.

If you hate frigid winters, come stay in Virginia til April. You'll be fine; we aren't gonna see much of a winter here, not with that SE Ridge. Man, I still can remember what that thing did to us in 2001-2002.............


-Jeb

[SnowWeatherMan]

Good post KOW... I know writing up a post like that takes a lot of time and effort. I both agree and disagree with your assessment. The Pac Jet and SE Ridge are killing us NE and MA folks. It's gunna take time before we can knock down the ridge in the east, basically a one-two punch of s/w's is the only thing that will possibly change the pattern. I believe in this transition is the best chance of a winter storm on the EC in the near future. We need the first s/w to knock down the ridge and the second to be right on its heals for any chance for cold air to be in place.
I don't see a a real cold pattern setting up in the East this winter, just not gunna happen. Everybody has been screaming, "Cold Blast to come next week". Yes I would like to see the GFS verify, but it's just not gunna happen. It might be good for looking at a pattern change, but that's about it. The exact storms people want to track at 140hrs can only be taken with a grain of salt.
We can't seem to get a high centered over E Can for more than a couple of days. If we can all remember back to last Jan everybody was crying because of the suppressed storms we were getting in the East. Yeah it was great to get a two week cold snap with well below norm temps, but Jan was pretty dry in the NE. In the transition to a decent trough in the East in early Feb is when things started to pickup. If we want snow in the East the "Arctic Blast" isn't what we want.

[Anonymous]

That SE Ridge was a b@stard.

I can clearly remember January 2002 like it was only yesterday.

I will take a zonal flow over that SE Ridge any day.

It was not warm with the SE Ridge in January 2002.

It was downright HOT!!!!

We hit the mid 80s in January that year. Hell we were joking about the "winter without a winter"! We got one little lame 3 inch snow that was all slushy and it melted even tho temps were below freezing!!!!

I hate lame winters!!! I wish to God that I lived in Antarctica!! Sure its real cold and they have real bad winds, but at least there is no SE Ridge to throw a spanner into my winter.

It was so hot in January 2002 with that d@mn SE Ridge that we were actually thinking about running our air conditioner!!!

I'll gladly endure highs in the 50s all winter and plentiful torrential rain, but I can't stand 70s and 80s in January!!!!

The real scourge of winter is not the El Nino. It's not necessarily that overactive hyper-aggressive Pac Jet stream, it's the dreaded SE Ridge!!!

The SE Ridge could very easily dominate the Eastern US's sensible weather through the winter.

You live on the MA, better get your shorts ready just in case. This could be a real bummer here.


One dejected JEB. You know folks, we need to really stop hyping this severe cold winter nonsense.

[Stormsfury]

One dejected JEB. You know folks, we need to really stop hyping this severe cold winter nonsense.

I don't recall many that called for a repeat of 2002-2003. The only thing that I've seen are variability forecasts, but nothing prolonged (some of it was mine from a post earlier made here back in November, or early December). But there COULD be an arctic invasion, but not long-lasting this winter.

Already the EURO continues to trend a little colder in the MR once again ... even though it's more of a zonal flow output, the overall trend may be in the right direction, though.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Also, once cold air CAN make it down into the mix, storm tracks, and the active PAC JET should continue to give for increased storm chances. All it takes in many's minds is ONE good storm to be a good winter. And even in periods of mild during the winter, one well timed storm (take the recent early December storm for example) with cold air coming into place and the moisture, and VOILA ... nice snowstorm.

There easily could be a few of those this year, and would make many forecasts verify quite nicely along with the variable storm tracks, and one would lead to suppression IF the SE ridge and PAC JET begin to subside somewhat.

SF

[Guest]

Good post KOW... I know writing up a post like that takes a lot of time and effort. I both agree and disagree with your assessment. The Pac Jet and SE Ridge are killing us NE and MA folks. It's gunna take time before we can knock down the ridge in the east, basically a one-two punch of s/w's is the only thing that will possibly change the pattern. I believe in this transition is the best chance of a winter storm on the EC in the near future. We need the first s/w to knock down the ridge and the second to be right on its heals for any chance for cold air to be in place.
I don't see a a real cold pattern setting up in the East this winter, just not gunna happen. Everybody has been screaming, "Cold Blast to come next week". Yes I would like to see the GFS verify, but it's just not gunna happen. It might be good for looking at a pattern change, but that's about it. The exact storms people want to track at 140hrs can only be taken with a grain of salt.
We can't seem to get a high centered over E Can for more than a couple of days. If we can all remember back to last Jan everybody was crying because of the suppressed storms we were getting in the East. Yeah it was great to get a two week cold snap with well below norm temps, but Jan was pretty dry in the NE. In the transition to a decent trough in the East in early Feb is when things started to pickup. If we want snow in the East the "Arctic Blast" isn't what we want.

Intresting you mention that GFS. LOL. I guess you missed the part i said about it beeing screwed and clueless toa degree. Oh well thats the GFS for you which believe me im well aware of how bad this model gets after 5 days or so. This year were lucky to get anything out of it past 2 days. Thanks in part though to the PAC JET which GFS seems to know sh!t about handling it.

And yes i am well aware of what a artic blast can do to the eastern areas supressing the storm track and such. And im very well aware of how the PAC JET and se ridge is killing us easterners and tomorrow into Tuesday perhaps is gonna send in a added blow torch before the next cool down to near normal temps again later in the week.

All in all i as i honed in on above i do agree with how you see what it will take to knock down that dam ridge. FEB im not even gonna touch yet. But i will say IMHO this will be the month that alot of the east will see its snows this winter..........


And Jeb i am NOT Hyping any kinda of super cold either. . Trust me though i do believe by midmonth or perhaps shortly there after the colder artic air will make its way back into your area.....I do seriously hope we can squeeze in a mega blizzard with 3 feet of snow and drifts to 10 ft for you Jeb so you can make use of the shovels of yours and you can be in snow bliss!


And SF goodcatch on that euro as well. And i do agree and will stress to eveyone that yes i say the artic air may be paying the eastern areas a visit by midmonth but as SF said i have to agree that it wont be long lasting. I dont think however we will not see the kind of warmth we are currently seeing now with the blow torch in full effect in the east!

BTW anyone notice the 00z GFS?????? What a tease .......lol Nice to see though!!!!

[southerngale]

When am I gonna see some snow?

[Guest]

Me too ????

[ColdFront77]

The cold front moving toward Florida is expected to stall out and fall apart north of the state...
sounds like what a frontal system does in the summer.

[therock1811]

Interesting indeed...sounds like I'll be going from "hot"(i.e. upper 50's/near 60°?) to the freezer!

Thing to remember Rock is that this isnt gonna happen overnight. Gonna come in slowly but surely and perhaps full strength by midmonth! This doesnt mean btw that we couldnt see a shot at some snow on occasions when the temp cool downs visit us at times before the bigger chill by mid month!

I figured such...no it won't happen like that *snaps his fingers*, but it will...real ? in my mind is when...think it's gonna be mid Jan, but it is gonna happen...