Pacific Jet Dominated Winters.....Let's discuss those!

[Anonymous]

What years were dominated by the Pacific Jet?

Were those years characterized by mild weather in the east, south, and tons of rain and snow in the western mountains?

Could we be dealing with a strong, unrelenting Pacific Jet winter this year?

Does it have to be an El Nino winter in order to see a strong screaming Pacific Jet-dominated pattern?

Could the culprit for this upcoming winter's mild pattern be the Pac Jet?

It wouldn't be the first time...........................

LET'S DISCUSS THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-Jeb

[Anonymous]

NOW, we are all agreed that 2003-2004 is NOT an El Nino winter.

Okay.

So, could this be a Pac Jet winter? Is it possible that it's not the SE Ridge that's gonna give us a mild winter in the East, but the friggin' stubborn Pac Jet?

Hey SF, anyone that knows analogues here..................Which years were Pac Jet-dominated?

Do those years bear any resemblance to the continent-wide and teleconnectional setup that we are seeing this winter?


-JEB

[Suzi Q]

:27: :NO: :snipersmile: :17: :fishslap:

I TOLD YOU NOT TO SAY THE "s" WORD!!!!

[Anonymous]

World-wide teleconnections aside, here in the United States we are confronted with wildly differing model solutions and the fact that the Pacific Jet is out of control. It has been bringing strong lows into the Pac Northwest and into Cal. There have been mudslides, which have not been helped by the wildfires earlier this year. There has been a lot of mountain snow already in the West. The region in question is under a severe drought and they need rain and snow but not all at once.

We have a very strong persistent Pac Jet which does not appear to be letting up one little bit. There is a ridge in the East and a trough in the West. The ultra-strong Pac Jet is acting as a very effective dam which will not allow the arctic air in Canada to move south.

I don't know a whole lot about analogues, but I think we need to look at strong Pacific Jet stream-dominated years to get a better handle on what kind of winter may be in store here in the US in early 2004.

Looks as if the West will be very, very wet and the mts look to see above-norm, if not outright record amts of snow this winter. If the development of the SE Ridge strengthens, it may deepen the Western trough.

We all want the arctic air and the storms it brings, but that may just not be in the cards this winter.

What I do see realistically is probably a wet winter in the West, a crazy out of control Pac Jet thru Jan and Feb with probably a cold wave in the East come late March with rain. Jan and Feb back East will probably be average to mild. The northeastern states will retain the snow they already have, and maybe catch some more off and on all winter. In other words, all's quiet and norm to mild on the eastern front. But watch the hell out in the West!!

-Jeb, mild and snowless in N VA

[Tip]

Unlike the nightmare year of 01-02, there is a huge pool of arctic air building in Canada in early 2004. Current temps in the upper Hudson Bay are nearing -40F.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/previ ... _na-1.html

The shear weight of this cold air will slowly press southward regardless of EPAC jet. As this massive cold air pocket reaches its maximum, it will set up a sharp temperature contrast further and further south later in the month. This is a pattern I believe may be like 93-94 (hope I have the year right) that was very contusive to ice storms and sharp cutoffs between snow/rain line. If the PAC jet weakens for a time during this process and any ridging occurs out west, someone east of the Mississippi will get the big dog.

[Anonymous]

Unlike the nightmare year of 01-02, there is a huge pool of arctic air building in Canada in early 2004. Current temps in the upper Hudson Bay are nearing -40F.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/previ ... _na-1.html

The shear weight of this cold air will slowly press southward regardless of EPAC jet. As this massive cold air pocket reaches its maximum, it will set up a sharp temperature contrast further and further south later in the month. This is a pattern I believe may be like 93-94 (hope I have the year right) that was very contusive to ice storms and sharp cutoffs between snow/rain line. If the PAC jet weakens for a time during this process and any ridging occurs out west, someone east of the Mississippi will get the big dog.

If you are correct, then we could be in for possibly an ICE event. I remember 1993-94 when we got heavy sleet/frzra events. In fact we got two of those freezing rain and/or sleet events that winter in Woodbridge: Jan 19.....1.5 inches of ice from FRZRA, and Feb 9-10.....three inches of sleet balls that froze overnight to solid ice. We had 4 inches of snow on mar 1-2.

But just because there is a -40 cold pool up in Canada does NOT mean it can't slide SE out to sea via Canada. There is no Greenland Block; there is no NEG NAO, there IS however a strong NEG PNA thus a trough over the West Coast. The Pac Jet is going to town with serious storms in the Pac Northwest.

True there is some pretty cold air building over Canada but its presence does not necessarily mean it will move south into the CONUS. More likely it'll move east off the Atlantic Canadian coast. There really isn't anything to lock it in over us. Then again, the strong Pac Jet stands to keep the cold air from hitting us any way. I'll allow for a glancing blow from the cold air pool in the northeastern states; but it will only be a glancing blow. Much as I love snow and cold, not every winter is destined to be severely cold and snowy here in the East.


JEB

[Tip]

WHile you are correct about the current teleconnections not being contusive to delivering the cold air into CONUS at the present time, it will only take one crack in the armor before the cold pool dissipates to overwhelm the pattern however brief. I see no hope for a longlasting Greenland block or -NAO. but there is a chance that the PNA will go strongly positive and create a west coast ridge as witnessed by the ensemble means.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html