By Late Saturday, a low pressure will be centered somewhere over Oklahoma. At 60 hours, the 12z ETA has precip. falling as rain over the Ohio Valley, with a low over the Texas Panhandle. The freezing line runs right through the Center of the Ohio Valley. The GFS is quite similar, except for having the freezing line somewhat farther north, which can be expected on the GFS. At hour 66, the Eta has precip. falling as liquid over much of the Ohio Valley, with the freezing line laying down in Northern Indiana to just North of St. Louis. Some areas could begin to see some frozen precip, or a period of sleet or freezing rain before changing to rain? The GFS shows the freezing line much farther north from Northern Missouri to the Indiana/Michigan border. By hour 72, the models begin to diverge greatly, with the GFS indicating very heavy rain falling over parts of the Ohio Valley, and snow beginning to fall over Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa. The GFS has a low across Southern Missouri. The ETA on the other hand has a low over Northern Arkansas with lighter precip. falling, with almost all of it falling as rain at this time as temperatures over Indiana and Illinois begin to warm, changing any freezing rain and sleet over to all rain. By hour 78, the GFS has heavy snow falling Northeastern Missouri, Eastern Iowa, Southern Wisconsin to Western Illinois. The GFS has a low over Eastern Illinois with heavy rain falling in the warm sector. The ETA is colder farther south, and has snow falling over Northern Illinois and Northern Missouri into parts of Southeast Iowa. The ETA has much lighter amounts of rainfall in the warm sector. The GFS has a low over Northern Ohio by hour 84, with snow falling over Michigan. The ETA has a low over the Ohio River with heavy snow continuing to fall over Chicago, and Northern Illinois.
The GEM by hour 54 has a low over the Texas Panhandle as well. The GEM tracks a low into Missouri and into Southern Indiana along the Ohio River and then Northeast into Northern Ohio. The GEM is somewhat slower with the tracking of the low. The GEM looks similar to the ETA and does show a big hit for parts of Northern Illinois.
