Winter Over threads ???????

[Guest]

Ok all it has come the point i am afraid to even look in this forum anymore as it seems we have a few here who keep on about the winter is over crap or how mild its been. Come on now unless you can back any of it up about this winter is over crap then please keep it to yourself. Trust me when i say as i did right before Christmas that winter will be back this month. Crap i cant go anywhere it seems without seeing this nonsense posted everywhere and not a dam thing to back it up. And dont hand me the 01-02 crap either because that idea is long dead in the water and never really was there to begin with. Same goes for the 79/80 idea as well. So please ease up with the winter is over BS for now. Now lets say its the middle of Feb and you havent seen a thing then feel free to have at it. Ok.

Like i said if you have anything VALID to back up why winter is over then please feel free to post it and we can debate it!

Other then that enjoy the up comming Cold and snow to alot of the country east of the rockies this week and into the following weeks as well. Yes the cold air is comming and just how i said it would in my other thread about Jan!!!!!!! Enjoy!

[Anonymous]

Ok all it has come the point i am afraid to even look in this forum anymore as it seems we have a few here who keep on about the winter is over crap or how mild its been. Come on now unless you can back any of it up about this winter is over crap then please keep it to yourself. Trust me when i say as i did right before Christmas that winter will be back this month. Crap i cant go anywhere it seems without seeing this nonsense posted everywhere and not a dam thing to back it up. And dont hand me the 01-02 crap either because that idea is long dead in the water and never really was there to begin with. Same goes for the 79/80 idea as well. So please ease up with the winter is over BS for now. Now lets say its the middle of Feb and you havent seen a thing then feel free to have at it. Ok.

Like i said if you have anything VALID to back up why winter is over then please feel free to post it and we can debate it!

Other then that enjoy the up comming Cold and snow to alot of the country east of the rockies this week and into the following weeks as well. Yes the cold air is comming and just how i said it would in my other thread about Jan!!!!!!! Enjoy!

Okay debate this!!!!

The PAC JET isn't going anywhere!!!

The Mid Atlantic is in for a normal to possibly slightly above normal winter.

Hey bub let's debate the Pac Jet, cos I dont care if the air over Canada is -110 degrees, that d@mn Pac Jet is not going to move!!!

Bottom Line:

The northern Plains will be cold. The rest of the country will be average to above average temps. There will be MUCH less snow than there was last year. Last year is over. There will be NO back-to-back severe winters. The next major cold snow winter for the east will be any winter between 2014 to 2021. Care to pick one?

Give me just one good reason that d@mn Pac Jet will ever ease up and allow us to have a decently cold winter!!

Also the SE Ridge aint going anywhere soon.

Take a gander at this!! Sat Jan 3 Woodbridge will hit near 70 for hecks sakes!!!
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/22 ... Undeclared


JEB

[Chris the Weather Man]

Jeb. Give it Time, Long way to go! Remember? 1983?

[Guest]

Ok all it has come the point i am afraid to even look in this forum anymore as it seems we have a few here who keep on about the winter is over crap or how mild its been. Come on now unless you can back any of it up about this winter is over crap then please keep it to yourself. Trust me when i say as i did right before Christmas that winter will be back this month. Crap i cant go anywhere it seems without seeing this nonsense posted everywhere and not a dam thing to back it up. And dont hand me the 01-02 crap either because that idea is long dead in the water and never really was there to begin with. Same goes for the 79/80 idea as well. So please ease up with the winter is over BS for now. Now lets say its the middle of Feb and you havent seen a thing then feel free to have at it. Ok.

Like i said if you have anything VALID to back up why winter is over then please feel free to post it and we can debate it!

Other then that enjoy the up comming Cold and snow to alot of the country east of the rockies this week and into the following weeks as well. Yes the cold air is comming and just how i said it would in my other thread about Jan!!!!!!! Enjoy!

Okay debate this!!!!

The PAC JET isn't going anywhere!!!

The Mid Atlantic is in for a normal to possibly slightly above normal winter.

Hey bub let's debate the Pac Jet, cos I dont care if the air over Canada is -110 degrees, that d@mn Pac Jet is not going to move!!!

Bottom Line:

The northern Plains will be cold. The rest of the country will be average to above average temps. There will be MUCH less snow than there was last year. Last year is over. There will be NO back-to-back severe winters. The next major cold snow winter for the east will be any winter between 2014 to 2021. Care to pick one?

Give me just one good reason that d@mn Pac Jet will ever ease up and allow us to have a decently cold winter!!

Also the SE Ridge aint going anywhere soon.

Take a gander at this!! Sat Jan 3 Woodbridge will hit near 70 for hecks sakes!!!
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/22 ... Undeclared


JEB

Well well well Jeb Lets start with that PAC JET!!!! First off have you been watching the pacific trends as of late? enso and a host of other things and as well the model runs as of late? Which i would strongly encourage you BTW to read my thread about the month of jan which right now is in very good to excellent shape with this pattern "Pac Jet/Se Ridge etc" we are in and the pattern to come for the rest of this month of Jan.

See the problem i see is your a big time snowlover like myself but seeing this kinda warmth is killing ya and for alot of people imo rational thinking.

Trust me im well aware of the PAC JET and as well the SE Ridge but trust me if you look at things more broadly you will see what i am talking about and as well that the colder more wintry like temps will be headed to your neck of the woods for sure by Mid Month as i pointed out in my other discussion. BTW its supposed to be 60 here tomorrow and trust me i will enjoy it for the day because i know it will be very short lived and out of here come sunday at which time i dont see any more warm ups in sight for the next week or two or even longer perhaps out this way!!!! And yes like i said it will make its way to you as well!!!!!

[therock1811]

Yeah jeb...I for one, like King am a lil sick of that winter is over BS...come on, it's just January...it's supposed to be 64° tomorrow, but I'm not giving up...winter is here officially, and it isn't going anywhere! Except perhaps southward lol...

[Stephanie]

The official season is only TEN DAYS OLD! When we get to the beginning of February, then I'd say we can start talking about the end of winter, or the winter that never was.

I think that we were spoiled by having 2 Decembers in a row that had a substantial snow on or near the same day. Most winters we don't see snow until January here in the MidAtlantic.

Actually, the PAC jet have been a good thing for our friends out west who desparately need the water.

[Anonymous]

The COLD is coming to the Mid Atlantic.

Yeah, Right!!!!

No, it isn't. Ferocious Pac Jet plus persistent SE Ridge will inhibit any persistent pattern like the one we enjoyed last winter.

January......
1: 52/43
2:59/38
3:68/44
4: 54/44
5:48/38
6: 50/35
7: 51/36
8: 49/37
9: 44/34
10: 49/40
11: 45/35
12:56/39
13: 50/35
14: 53/41
15: 55/42
16: 61/49
17: 63/51
18: 55/27 Yeah I'm real impressed with that lame low.
19: 49/30
20: 45/27 Oh gosh I'm gonna have a heart attack; AVERAGE high/low.
21: 52/35
22: 54/40
23: 49/38
24: 49/35
25: 48/36
26: 49/32 Wow....we actually hit the freezing mark in Jan.
27: 46/36
28: 42/28 Oh my gosh!! Average weather again!!
29: 50/34
30: 54/43
31: 59/49

The above is a fairly good representation of what we (in the East) can expect in January with the combination of the Pacific Jet and the SE Ridge. It takes two to tango and these two are gonna get together and party. It's gonna be a Blowout BASH that's gonna make the 1999-2000 New Years Party look fairly lame by comparison. The East will see impressive savings in heat bills this "winter". The northern Plains will be cold enough to freeze the genital organs off of a brass monkey lol, because some of the arctic air will bleed over into the northern Plains. But then, most years, some cold air gets into the Plains, they are climatologically favored for colder air, are they not? Why are Minneapolis malls built underground? Cold and winds and potentially dangerous, life-threatening visibilities caused by blowing snows up there is one big reason. The Pac Jet will dump disastrous amts of snow on the Western Mts.

I didn't say winter was over. True, some people are saying winter is over, but I did not say that. I am saying that winter over much of the CONUS will be substantially milder than has been generally expected. We have all been way too excited about last winter, myself included. We need to take this thing one winter at a time. The 2003-2004 winter WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT than the 2002-2003 winter was. It's sure NO 2001-2002, there is much more cold air up in Canada this winter. But the Pac Jet is strong this winter. The synoptic setup is different. The Pacific Jet is very, very active and ferocious this winter. It will prove to be semi-permanent. Seeing deep cold and significant snow in the MA is difficult at best because so many variables have to come together and be just so in order for the MA to see significant snows and lasting cold. Climo will verify this: Washington DC's average temperature range for this time of year is approximately 44/28. That averages out to about 35 degrees, ABOVE FREEZING. Give it a little ESE winds ahead of an approaching low and voila, RAIN is your best bet. This winter we are averaging more like 48/34. Can anyone say Rain's in the forecast?

I said the Pac Jet and the SE Ridge will tend to give the East a mild winter. The South will be downright warm at times. The West will be stormy and unsettled. The West will begin to make up some of the 7-year deficit, but they need MUCH MUCH more to make up for a devastating 7-year drought. The SE Ridge will keep Florida in the 70s and 80s clear thru March, easy. It aint goin' anywhere anytime soon. I've seen this before. The Pac Jet is super strong and it'll give the cold air up in Canada hell and then some. The cold air up in Canada will slide east out to sea, there will be no such animal as Greenland Blocking this winter on the North American continent. That was LAST YEAR, not THIS YEAR. The 34C airmass in Canada is very cold I'll grant you, but I've heard of worse.

Winter ain't over with, by a long shot. The West is going to get BURIED by snow, people are gonna unfortunately perish and I regret that deeply, I do not want that, but that's the Rockies for you. They are life threatening in the winter. There will be excessive rain in California, Oregon, Washington. There will be mudslides and flooding. Homes will be lost. People will be caught in some of these mudslides. The West has been in a severe drought for 5 to 7 years and it may just be getting ready to end, beginning in this winter.

The Northern Plains will be super-cold at times. The Midwest and upper Northeast will be cold at times; they will see some snow at times. The south, southeast and MA will be average to slightly above average in temps, just as we are already witnessing now. There will be rains from time to time.

No winter aint over with. But it is going to be A LOT DIFFERENT than we all wanted it to be, A LOT DIFFERENT than it was last year.

JEB

[Guest]

Ok. You mind telling me why you think the PAC JET or the SE RIDGE will stay like it is? Not just that you think it isnt going anywhere because of what has happend recently!!!! Please enlighten me.

I wanna know your reasoning why nothing will change with those two???

[Anonymous]

Ok. You mind telling me why you think the PAC JET or the SE RIDGE will stay like it is? Not just that you think it isnt going anywhere because of what has happend recently!!!! Please enlighten me.

I wanna know your reasoning why nothing will change with those two???

Thirty years' weather experience and plain gut intuition.

Ninety nine times out of one hundred, a cold, snowy December in the Mid Atlantic means an average to above average in temperatures winter in the MA.

Certainly, the MA may see a couple good cold snaps out of this winter, but the winter will be overall average to outright above average temperature-wise.

If it turns cold and snowy I will welcome it, but the Pac Jet and the SE Ridge will irrevocably alter the MA winter this year. Now Ohio will see more cold air, and will see more snow. This is because Ohio is in the Midwest and has no interposing mountains between it and the arctic motherlode to its north and northwest. The relatively mild air over the MA this winter will contribute to a moisture thermal gradient over the mountains that will in turn contribute to storminess and some snow over Ohio this winter. We may see some inland running storms that place the MA in the warmer sector of those storms, giving us rain, while at the same time acting as a snow producing cyclone for the Midwest and the Ohio region. The overall synoptic pattern this winter will promote inland-running cyclones to run west of the MA. This will happen in part because the colder air will be bleeding into the northern Plains and into the MW, but the SE Ridge will not allow significant arctic air to entrench over the MA this winter. There will be a boundary formed by the arctic air over the northern Plains and upper Midwest and the milder weather located over the south, southeast and the MA and southernmost northeast, along which storms in mid to late Jan and on throughout February will tend to run and there will be recurrent rain episodes over the south, southeast, MA and southern northeastern states, with snow and associated wintry precipitation in the arctic air over the Midwest and northern Plains. This will persist through the winter, it will indeed be winter in the northern Plains, upper Midwest, northern Rockies, and northernmost northeastern states, but certainly not for the south, southeast, and the MA.

For us this will be NO 2002-2003.

Enjoy your snow.


JEB

[FLguy]

saying winter is over is about as smart as standing under an elephants ass as its getting ready to take a poop and expecting not to get soiled.

[Anonymous]

saying winter is over is about as smart as standing under an elephants ass as its getting ready to take a poop and expecting not to get soiled.

I didn't say winter is over, I said it's not going to be as cold as we all earlier anticipated. The Pac Jet and SE Ridge will result in an average to slightly above average winter for many people in the CONUS. The SE Ridge will be a contributing factor, among other factors, that will tend to quickly change any winter precipitation episodes in the eastern US to all-rain events.


-JEB

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

The latest run of the European model brings the 850 mb temperature to -8C on January 6 and -17C on January 7. It even brings 0C 850 mb temperatures to Charleston, SC by January 7.

Granted, this might be overdone, but it does appear likely that high temperatures might not rise much higher than the mid-30s by midweek next week in and around the Washington, DC area.

While this turn in events will likely assure that the January 1-7 temperatures come out close to normal, the January 8-14 week looks even colder (some of the model guidance, ensembles pertaining to the major teleconnection indices, and past evolution of patterns similar to the current one).

Also, there may be some suppression of the storm track, so taking place as the colder pattern establishes itself.

[wx247]

Thanks so much KING!!!! I am glad that I am not the only one. I like reading the discussion and occasionally participating, but the mundane threads were getting old.

[Lindaloo]

Um thanks for that input FLguy. LOL!!!

I am an avid snow lover too, but never see any.

[Guest]

Same here Lindaloo - I'm a snowlover ....but dont' get any here in Texas.

All I ask for now is just to have a winter and some cold days...

[Guest]

SINCE I am the one who Forecasted the Pacific Jet Back in OCT
and on my winter forecast back in mid NOV and since I am the one that brought it to all of your attentions it is fair to say I am MOST familar with it and know of it and how to forecast with it more than anyonme here and in 95% of the meteorological community

That being said Jeb your forecast for Jan for washigton DC flat out sucks donkey crap.

The COLD is coming to the Mid Atlantic.

Yeah, Right!!!!

No, it isn't. Ferocious Pac Jet plus persistent SE Ridge will inhibit any persistent pattern like the one we enjoyed last winter.

January......
1: 52/43
2:59/38
3:68/44
4: 54/44
5:48/38
6: 50/35
7: 51/36
8: 49/37
9: 44/34
10: 49/40
11: 45/35
12:56/39
13: 50/35
14: 53/41
15: 55/42
16: 61/49
17: 63/51
18: 55/27 Yeah I'm real impressed with that lame low.
19: 49/30
20: 45/27 Oh gosh I'm gonna have a heart attack; AVERAGE high/low.
21: 52/35
22: 54/40
23: 49/38
24: 49/35
25: 48/36
26: 49/32 Wow....we actually hit the freezing mark in Jan.
27: 46/36
28: 42/28 Oh my gosh!! Average weather again!!
29: 50/34
30: 54/43
31: 59/49

The above is a fairly good representation of what we (in the East) can expect in January with the combination of the Pacific Jet and the SE Ridge. It takes two to tango and these two are gonna get together and party. It's gonna be a Blowout BASH that's gonna make the 1999-2000 New Years Party look fairly lame by comparison. The East will see impressive savings in heat bills this "winter". The northern Plains will be cold enough to freeze the genital organs off of a brass monkey lol, because some of the arctic air will bleed over into the northern Plains. But then, most years, some cold air gets into the Plains, they are climatologically favored for colder air, are they not? Why are Minneapolis malls built underground? Cold and winds and potentially dangerous, life-threatening visibilities caused by blowing snows up there is one big reason. The Pac Jet will dump disastrous amts of snow on the Western Mts.

I didn't say winter was over. True, some people are saying winter is over, but I did not say that. I am saying that winter over much of the CONUS will be substantially milder than has been generally expected. We have all been way too excited about last winter, myself included. We need to take this thing one winter at a time. The 2003-2004 winter WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT than the 2002-2003 winter was. It's sure NO 2001-2002, there is much more cold air up in Canada this winter. But the Pac Jet is strong this winter. The synoptic setup is different. The Pacific Jet is very, very active and ferocious this winter. It will prove to be semi-permanent. Seeing deep cold and significant snow in the MA is difficult at best because so many variables have to come together and be just so in order for the MA to see significant snows and lasting cold. Climo will verify this: Washington DC's average temperature range for this time of year is approximately 44/28. That averages out to about 35 degrees, ABOVE FREEZING. Give it a little ESE winds ahead of an approaching low and voila, RAIN is your best bet. This winter we are averaging more like 48/34. Can anyone say Rain's in the forecast?

I said the Pac Jet and the SE Ridge will tend to give the East a mild winter. The South will be downright warm at times. The West will be stormy and unsettled. The West will begin to make up some of the 7-year deficit, but they need MUCH MUCH more to make up for a devastating 7-year drought. The SE Ridge will keep Florida in the 70s and 80s clear thru March, easy. It aint goin' anywhere anytime soon. I've seen this before. The Pac Jet is super strong and it'll give the cold air up in Canada hell and then some. The cold air up in Canada will slide east out to sea, there will be no such animal as Greenland Blocking this winter on the North American continent. That was LAST YEAR, not THIS YEAR. The 34C airmass in Canada is very cold I'll grant you, but I've heard of worse.

Winter ain't over with, by a long shot. The West is going to get BURIED by snow, people are gonna unfortunately perish and I regret that deeply, I do not want that, but that's the Rockies for you. They are life threatening in the winter. There will be excessive rain in California, Oregon, Washington. There will be mudslides and flooding. Homes will be lost. People will be caught in some of these mudslides. The West has been in a severe drought for 5 to 7 years and it may just be getting ready to end, beginning in this winter.

The Northern Plains will be super-cold at times. The Midwest and upper Northeast will be cold at times; they will see some snow at times. The south, southeast and MA will be average to slightly above average in temps, just as we are already witnessing now. There will be rains from time to time.

No winter aint over with. But it is going to be A LOT DIFFERENT than we all wanted it to be, A LOT DIFFERENT than it was last year.

JEB

[Anonymous]

SINCE I am the one who Forecasted the Pacific Jet Back in OCT
and on my winter forecast back in mid NOV and since I am the one that brought it to all of your attentions it is fair to say I am MOST familar with it and know of it and how to forecast with it more than anyonme here and in 95% of the meteorological community

That being said Jeb your forecast for Jan for washigton DC flat out sucks donkey crap.

The COLD is coming to the Mid Atlantic.

Yeah, Right!!!!

No, it isn't. Ferocious Pac Jet plus persistent SE Ridge will inhibit any persistent pattern like the one we enjoyed last winter.

January......
1: 52/43
2:59/38
3:68/44
4: 54/44
5:48/38
6: 50/35
7: 51/36
8: 49/37
9: 44/34
10: 49/40
11: 45/35
12:56/39
13: 50/35
14: 53/41
15: 55/42
16: 61/49
17: 63/51
18: 55/27 Yeah I'm real impressed with that lame low.
19: 49/30
20: 45/27 Oh gosh I'm gonna have a heart attack; AVERAGE high/low.
21: 52/35
22: 54/40
23: 49/38
24: 49/35
25: 48/36
26: 49/32 Wow....we actually hit the freezing mark in Jan.
27: 46/36
28: 42/28 Oh my gosh!! Average weather again!!
29: 50/34
30: 54/43
31: 59/49

The above is a fairly good representation of what we (in the East) can expect in January with the combination of the Pacific Jet and the SE Ridge. It takes two to tango and these two are gonna get together and party. It's gonna be a Blowout BASH that's gonna make the 1999-2000 New Years Party look fairly lame by comparison. The East will see impressive savings in heat bills this "winter". The northern Plains will be cold enough to freeze the genital organs off of a brass monkey lol, because some of the arctic air will bleed over into the northern Plains. But then, most years, some cold air gets into the Plains, they are climatologically favored for colder air, are they not? Why are Minneapolis malls built underground? Cold and winds and potentially dangerous, life-threatening visibilities caused by blowing snows up there is one big reason. The Pac Jet will dump disastrous amts of snow on the Western Mts.

I didn't say winter was over. True, some people are saying winter is over, but I did not say that. I am saying that winter over much of the CONUS will be substantially milder than has been generally expected. We have all been way too excited about last winter, myself included. We need to take this thing one winter at a time. The 2003-2004 winter WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT than the 2002-2003 winter was. It's sure NO 2001-2002, there is much more cold air up in Canada this winter. But the Pac Jet is strong this winter. The synoptic setup is different. The Pacific Jet is very, very active and ferocious this winter. It will prove to be semi-permanent. Seeing deep cold and significant snow in the MA is difficult at best because so many variables have to come together and be just so in order for the MA to see significant snows and lasting cold. Climo will verify this: Washington DC's average temperature range for this time of year is approximately 44/28. That averages out to about 35 degrees, ABOVE FREEZING. Give it a little ESE winds ahead of an approaching low and voila, RAIN is your best bet. This winter we are averaging more like 48/34. Can anyone say Rain's in the forecast?

I said the Pac Jet and the SE Ridge will tend to give the East a mild winter. The South will be downright warm at times. The West will be stormy and unsettled. The West will begin to make up some of the 7-year deficit, but they need MUCH MUCH more to make up for a devastating 7-year drought. The SE Ridge will keep Florida in the 70s and 80s clear thru March, easy. It aint goin' anywhere anytime soon. I've seen this before. The Pac Jet is super strong and it'll give the cold air up in Canada hell and then some. The cold air up in Canada will slide east out to sea, there will be no such animal as Greenland Blocking this winter on the North American continent. That was LAST YEAR, not THIS YEAR. The 34C airmass in Canada is very cold I'll grant you, but I've heard of worse.

Winter ain't over with, by a long shot. The West is going to get BURIED by snow, people are gonna unfortunately perish and I regret that deeply, I do not want that, but that's the Rockies for you. They are life threatening in the winter. There will be excessive rain in California, Oregon, Washington. There will be mudslides and flooding. Homes will be lost. People will be caught in some of these mudslides. The West has been in a severe drought for 5 to 7 years and it may just be getting ready to end, beginning in this winter.

The Northern Plains will be super-cold at times. The Midwest and upper Northeast will be cold at times; they will see some snow at times. The south, southeast and MA will be average to slightly above average in temps, just as we are already witnessing now. There will be rains from time to time.

No winter aint over with. But it is going to be A LOT DIFFERENT than we all wanted it to be, A LOT DIFFERENT than it was last year.

JEB

That's fair, DT.

You DID forecast the Pac Jet, and it has obtained. Thanks for the heads up.

As for my temperature forecast for Jan for DC, it may in fact flat out suck donkey crap.

I still say that the MA will have no severe cold/severe snow winter. Even you understand the power of the Pac Jet this winter.

The East will have an average to slightly above average winter, especially when you crank in a mild February. There will be a few cold snaps in DC this winter, highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the upper teens, but they will be nothing to write home about. This winter was pretty overrated. I got overexcited; there were a few of us that got overexcited when December unfolded as colder and snowier for a couple weeks.

But the Mid Atlantic will experience an average to slightly above average winter temperature-wise. Rainfall will be average, except drier during suppressed periods when its a little colder in January. No 2003-2004 winter here.

I probably should have included more 37/30 days in my jan temperature forecast, and maybe a couple 28/23 days too, but it won't be anything to remember. The storms will go south of us if it manages to get that cold, and at any rate, the cold won't last, it will be short-lived. DC will be lucky to see another 3 to 8 inches this winter. South of there, mostly rain.

We need to stop getting too excited about storms projected on the models more than 72 hours out. There will be no super cold wave south of the northern Plains/northern Rockies/northernmost northeastern states.

Winter is not over, but it will be milder than progged.


JEB

[Lindaloo]

All I ask for now is just to have a winter and some cold days...

oh, ME TOO!!

[FLguy]

The COLD is coming to the Mid Atlantic.

Yeah, Right!!!!

No, it isn't. Ferocious Pac Jet plus persistent SE Ridge will inhibit any persistent pattern like the one we enjoyed last winter.

January......
1: 52/43
2:59/38
3:68/44
4: 54/44
5:48/38
6: 50/35
7: 51/36
8: 49/37
9: 44/34
10: 49/40
11: 45/35
12:56/39
13: 50/35
14: 53/41
15: 55/42
16: 61/49
17: 63/51
18: 55/27 Yeah I'm real impressed with that lame low.
19: 49/30
20: 45/27 Oh gosh I'm gonna have a heart attack; AVERAGE high/low.
21: 52/35
22: 54/40
23: 49/38
24: 49/35
25: 48/36
26: 49/32 Wow....we actually hit the freezing mark in Jan.
27: 46/36
28: 42/28 Oh my gosh!! Average weather again!!
29: 50/34
30: 54/43
31: 59/49

The above is a fairly good representation of what we (in the East) can expect in January with the combination of the Pacific Jet and the SE Ridge. It takes two to tango and these two are gonna get together and party. It's gonna be a Blowout BASH that's gonna make the 1999-2000 New Years Party look fairly lame by comparison. The East will see impressive savings in heat bills this "winter". The northern Plains will be cold enough to freeze the genital organs off of a brass monkey lol, because some of the arctic air will bleed over into the northern Plains. But then, most years, some cold air gets into the Plains, they are climatologically favored for colder air, are they not? Why are Minneapolis malls built underground? Cold and winds and potentially dangerous, life-threatening visibilities caused by blowing snows up there is one big reason. The Pac Jet will dump disastrous amts of snow on the Western Mts.

I didn't say winter was over. True, some people are saying winter is over, but I did not say that. I am saying that winter over much of the CONUS will be substantially milder than has been generally expected. We have all been way too excited about last winter, myself included. We need to take this thing one winter at a time. The 2003-2004 winter WILL BE DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT than the 2002-2003 winter was. It's sure NO 2001-2002, there is much more cold air up in Canada this winter. But the Pac Jet is strong this winter. The synoptic setup is different. The Pacific Jet is very, very active and ferocious this winter. It will prove to be semi-permanent. Seeing deep cold and significant snow in the MA is difficult at best because so many variables have to come together and be just so in order for the MA to see significant snows and lasting cold. Climo will verify this: Washington DC's average temperature range for this time of year is approximately 44/28. That averages out to about 35 degrees, ABOVE FREEZING. Give it a little ESE winds ahead of an approaching low and voila, RAIN is your best bet. This winter we are averaging more like 48/34. Can anyone say Rain's in the forecast?

I said the Pac Jet and the SE Ridge will tend to give the East a mild winter. The South will be downright warm at times. The West will be stormy and unsettled. The West will begin to make up some of the 7-year deficit, but they need MUCH MUCH more to make up for a devastating 7-year drought. The SE Ridge will keep Florida in the 70s and 80s clear thru March, easy. It aint goin' anywhere anytime soon. I've seen this before. The Pac Jet is super strong and it'll give the cold air up in Canada hell and then some. The cold air up in Canada will slide east out to sea, there will be no such animal as Greenland Blocking this winter on the North American continent. That was LAST YEAR, not THIS YEAR. The 34C airmass in Canada is very cold I'll grant you, but I've heard of worse.

Winter ain't over with, by a long shot. The West is going to get BURIED by snow, people are gonna unfortunately perish and I regret that deeply, I do not want that, but that's the Rockies for you. They are life threatening in the winter. There will be excessive rain in California, Oregon, Washington. There will be mudslides and flooding. Homes will be lost. People will be caught in some of these mudslides. The West has been in a severe drought for 5 to 7 years and it may just be getting ready to end, beginning in this winter.

The Northern Plains will be super-cold at times. The Midwest and upper Northeast will be cold at times; they will see some snow at times. The south, southeast and MA will be average to slightly above average in temps, just as we are already witnessing now. There will be rains from time to time.

No winter aint over with. But it is going to be A LOT DIFFERENT than we all wanted it to be, A LOT DIFFERENT than it was last year.

JEB

This is january NOT late october...

[FLguy]

Um thanks for that input FLguy. LOL!!!

I am an avid snow lover too, but never see any.

LOL...i/m an avid snow snow lover though down here in daytona im lucky i hit 40 at night let alone see any snow. so yea...i know the feeling.