We have a positive Madden-Julian oscillation coming on...

[FLguy]

and coastal events are irrelevant here...were talking about major east coast snowstorms and the connection to the QBO.

in 2000/01...the QBO was strong easterly:

2000 4.85 4.20 5.51 3.98 -0.99 -7.83 -13.13 -15.31 -15.52 -14.04 -15.07 -14.56
2001 -15.69 -15.53 -15.99 -17.73 -20.99 -23.31 -24.45 -21.67 -14.29 -10.81 -3.88 1.48

however...it did not limit the potential for major east coast snow events. and no we did NOT have a lack of coastal storminess in that particular year.

there was a major coastal storm in late december...another in the beginning of feb and of course there the dreaded march 2001 event. (which sends chills up and down my spine for obvious reasons...lol)

[FLguy]

Jeb --- an active MJO and very strong pacific jet can make it harder for significant pattern amplification to occur thus reducing the potential for a major arctic intrusion into the EUS.

instead it can lead to more of a cold zonal pattern. in which most of the cold air is hung up across the northern part of the country waiting for amplification to bring it south.

Hello?....

FLguy stated "an active MJO and very strong pacific jet can make it harder for significant pattern amplification to occur thus reducing the potential for a major arctic intrusion into the EUS".

We have a strong Pac Jet, DT's Pac Jet lol, that will inhibit the arctic air from coming south.

We have relatively mild air in place in the MA/MW SNE region.

We have the SE Ridge to consider. That puppy tends to hasten solid-to-liquid phase changes with respect to precip.

AND we have the Madden-Julian Oscillation thrown in for good measure.

lol......

Which seems to coincide with DT's (excellent) discussion earlier tonight about the POSSIBILITY of a SECS/MECS in the 12th-14th timeframe ...

This is 12:02am Jan 2 2004, approximately ten to twelve days out. We're talking about 240hrs PLUS off of a Model projection.

Face up to the mild winter in the EUS, excepting the northern tier which will see some arctic air bleed southward over time.

I need to get a life; all of us need to get a life.
A snowstorm is not the only thing in life. It's not going to happen anyway. You have to consider the Pac Jet, the SE Ridge, AND the MJO plus the reality of the mild air in place and a model projection 240 hours in the future and ALL the variables which have to fall into place just so.


JEB


AND we are talking about a model projection

NO...you are not understanding what we are trying to say...

An active MJO and strong pacific jet will keep that cold air up in canada...with the MJO now entering the positive phase...the PAC jet should respond by quieting down...allowing for amplification of the pattern and the chance for that arctic air to come south.

[Anonymous]

Certainly I have a lot to learn about meteorology. LOL

Let's just wait and see if the PJ slackens, and if it does, let's see if the arctic air comes south. I have a feeling the PJ will calm down some, but that we will probably have a moderate cold outbreak.

I refuse from here on in to get over-excited about this winter. We got clobbered pretty good in 2003. We probably won't see quite that much this year.

You folks can go ape over models if you like, but I for one categorically refuse to get all hyper over a possible event that may, or may not, come together nine or so days from now.

One thing I am 70% certain of, is that the MA will have chilly seasonable weather, with occasional rain events. The other 30% is colder than avg wx could occur here this winter.

IF the MJO does cause the PJ to slacken up some, IF we get a +PNA in the west (Ridge in the West) and a -NAO forms at the same time (Trof in the East) the arctic air will deliver a cold outbreak to the eastern two-thirds of the country.

Those are a few things that have to happen. Until they verify, IF they verify, I refuse to get excited about winter. I've already been down that dumb road, only to have temps ten or so degrees above avg here for New Years, etc etc.

Only a month ago, I was still totally obsessed with my OBX beach trip. I still can remember it. No weather features have to come together to walk down a beach lol That's why I like that 77/64 T/D spread beach jebwalk so much. There are no off-years.

Let's just wait and see if that Pacific jet slackens up.


JEB

[FLguy]

Certainly I have a lot to learn about meteorology. LOL

Let's just wait and see if the PJ slackens, and if it does, let's see if the arctic air comes south. I have a feeling the PJ will calm down some, but that we will probably have a moderate cold outbreak.

I refuse from here on in to get over-excited about this winter. We got clobbered pretty good in 2003. We probably won't see quite that much this year.

You folks can go ape over models if you like, but I for one categorically refuse to get all hyper over a possible event that may, or may not, come together nine or so days from now.

One thing I am 70% certain of, is that the MA will have chilly seasonable weather, with occasional rain events. The other 30% is colder than avg wx could occur here this winter.

IF the MJO does cause the PJ to slacken up some, IF we get a +PNA in the west (Ridge in the West) and a -NAO forms at the same time (Trof in the East) the arctic air will deliver a cold outbreak to the eastern two-thirds of the country.

Those are a few things that have to happen. Until they verify, IF they verify, I refuse to get excited about winter. I've already been down that dumb road, only to have temps ten or so degrees above avg here for New Years, etc etc.

Only a month ago, I was still totally obsessed with my OBX beach trip. I still can remember it. No weather features have to come together to walk down a beach lol That's why I like that 77/64 T/D spread beach jebwalk so much. There are no off-years.

Let's just wait and see if that Pacific jet slackens up.


JEB

Its NOT a matter of IF its a matter of WHEN. ---- In the short term monitoring the MJO phases will help one to make an assessment of the PAC jet...in the longer term i would strongly suggest taking a look at the QBO. a strong east QBO is a precursor to a strong and dominating PJ in winter. A west QBO favores a weaker PJ.

[Stormsfury]

And to further continue the discussion ...

The QBO is expected to turn WEST By the end of February ... which IF using extrapolation would serve to put December's #'s in the NEG Low teens and by the end of the January in the NEG single digits, and during the middle of the month, IF my estimations are correct, the QBO would be around -10 ... perfect breeding grounds ...

SF

[FLguy]

And to further continue the discussion ...

The QBO is expected to turn WEST By the end of February ... which IF using extrapolation would serve to put December's #'s in the NEG Low teens and by the end of the January in the NEG single digits, and during the middle of the month, IF my estimations are correct, the QBO would be around -10 ... perfect breeding grounds ...

SF

Exactly the correlation between major east coast snow events and the QBO is the strongest when the QBO is in the single digits.