Well to begin with here we are yet again within 72hrs and have to a degree a big difference in the models especially where the ETA and the GFS is concerned with the GFS bringing the low up over Chicago and the ETA bringing it across KY into WV.
Well i for one am more inclined to take the ETA track but think the GFS has some good points as well which hopefully by tomorrow they will both show my idea.
My thinking is there will be precip breaking out up in the central plains out in KS/NE and move ene into IA/MO and then into IL,WI and weaken as it heads for Chicago as i believe the low forming in the south near the TX/OK area robs areas farther to the north of the precip and a new area of precip breaks out in OK, AR, and southern MO,KS headed ene into KY, Southern/Central IL and on over into IN, southern Mich and OH as the low heads up into AR and then Southern MO and then into KY moving ene untill reaching eastern KY near the WV, OH, KY boarder areas.
As far as precip types go with a track like this i believe the heaviest snows will fall in central and southern (i80 and south)IA, nw IL, Northern MO/KS and southern NE with the inital band and then the second development with the low itself will spread a swath of heavier snow to central IL, Central and northern IN (north of i70), into southern MI, and eventually northern OH (about US30/i71 on north & west) with a mixed bag of precip farther south to just south of i70 in IN and OH east to about west or nw of Pittsburgh, PA ending as all snow to about the river.
I will have a detailed map out later on tonight with any possible change that may occur with the 00z model runs!!!!!!
My Initial Ideas of the weekend system!
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- Dr Spectrum
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 6:50 pm
- Location: North Central Ohio (Medina County) 1123'
- Dr Spectrum
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 54
- Joined: Fri Dec 05, 2003 6:50 pm
- Location: North Central Ohio (Medina County) 1123'
Dr Spectrum wrote:Are you blending the ETA and GFS or are you following a different model(s)?
The ETA track sounds great for N. OH but the way things look right now we are in for a mixed bag.
To a small degree i am but mainly with the precip itself. the precip types im more favoring the ETA which has done alot better then the gfs has for a long while now. I still think as well to a degree that the models arent handling the artic air just right yet even the eta but more so the GFS and especially the euro which normally has a warm bias to it anyways!!!!!!
Should know all the details by tomorrow for sure and tonights 00z runs should help out alot as well!!!!!
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