WILL THE 13-14TH OF JAN BRING THAT BIG ONE 4 THE NORTHEAST ?

[Lehigh]

POTENTIAL STORM AND HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN
THE 13TH AND 14TH OF JANUARY.............................




http://weather.unisys.com/

[Colin]

Yes, this has been talked about lately. We'll see what happens and hope for the best!

[Guest]

I have been talking about this event for 5-6 days now

[donsutherland1]

For those who might not be aware of it, DT is to the best of my knowledge, the first to actually begin to try to hone in on the potential magnitude of the possible January 12-14 storm.

One can see part of his discussion and reasoning on his <b>website</b>.

One should note that at this stage in point, the discussion pertains to possibilities and not certainties. Today's run of the ECMWF could be quite revealing as the possible event moves into the 7-day range.

[HuffWx]

HM..not per mods but MJO and other features had this once called as well last month. DT has lead the recent charge with great model data and analysis.

Huff

[donsutherland1]

Huff,

You are correct that HM had called for the possibility of a big event around mid-January from a month ago. DT has taken the lead in beginning to hone in on the details pertaining to the possible event now that there is some ensemble/model support for such an event.

I certainly didn't mean to deprive HM of credit.

[ColdFront77]

The above maps will update, but will be a day later each day that passes by. The web addresses will have to lower as each day passes to see how the specific date being honed in on is progressing.

[HuffWx]

Exactly Don,

That is where DT excells...

I was not calling you out Don, just wanted HM to get his props. He is rather good at reading global indecies and connecting them to sensible weather.

Huff

[donsutherland1]

I completely agree with you, Huff.

HM definitely deserves credit and he has done exceptionally well so far with regard to his seasonal ideas.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Will this storm be most likely a : SECS or MECS? What are your viewpoints for now?

[Guest]

agree 100%. HM saw it first visa vie the MJO connection...

HM..not per mods but MJO and other features had this once called as well last month. DT has lead the recent charge with great model data and analysis.

Huff

[Lehigh]

Hey everyone..................I am NOT taking credit for anything.

I just happened to see the model prediction for those days
and felt like posting it.

Why are so many offended by me posting this thread ?


I just thought it be interesting to hear other people
remarks about the POTENTIAL storm.

I remember DT talking about a POTENTIAL storm and
several others as well/

I just did not think it would happen but I have been watching this system for days as well.

I saw it coming together and NEVER gave it much thought
but to post it.

I NEVER wanted to offend anyone in the first place and second
of all NEVER wanted or expected the negative responses I
have just gotten.

[Colin]

I don't see any negative comments...

[Lehigh]

I don't see any negative comments...

__________________________________________

Those that are saying DT deserves the credit.....................

That is what I commented about negitive responses.....

I NEVER said I take the "Credit" in being the "First" to report
this up coming event.

All I did was post a thread about the POTENTIAL storm I saw
forming............that's all/ :TV:

I NEVER expected to have such a big deal come out of it.

Well........................that's life. :walk: :TV:

[Anonymous]

Will the 13th or the 14th bring a snow for the Mid Atlantic and/or Northeast?

That is the question.

First of all, the 13th is 8 DAYS OUT from today, Jan 5.

Secondly, forecasts indicate that Woodbridge will be 47/33 on Sunday, Jan 11, 46/25 on Mon Jan 12, 44/25 on Tue Jan 13, and 40/20 on Wed Jan 14.

"Arctic Fronts" are modifying before they hit the Mid Atlantic region.

The last time I looked, it RAINED at 44 degrees.

To answer the question, IF the storm in question moves far enough up the coast, yes the Northeast will probably see snow because in the Northeast, it will be cold enough for snow. However, the Mid Atlantic will receive RAIN or a mix changing to RAIN because it will simply be too mild for snow.

Our Monday, Jan 12 forecast calls for Rain Showers because the high temperature will top out at 46 degrees. Forty six degrees is plenty mild enough for rainfall in N VA.

Forecasters on this board: Please stop falsely raising the hopes of people here. I will continue in this role for the remainder of the winter. I like snow, but I know when it's time to STOP living in a fantasy world. Washington DC will see a couple days this week in the upper 30s to near 40, with lows at night near 20-23 degrees. Hardly a major arctic front. We'll have rain showers on Sunday or Monday. No big deal.

It's high time people started to realize this.

JEB

[Colin]

Agreed, Jeb...thank you...

[Chris the Weather Man]

Oh, Come On, People, I know it is only Jan 5th, but, dangit, It will change like it always does! The Models don't have a good idea of how much snow could fall next monday. And, This January, will be Normal, No more 60's or 70's ( or Slightly below normal)

[kpantz]

I think it's pretty safe to say that we're on the way into a pattern that is, if nothing else, more conducive to snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic/NE. I, for one, am definitely model-watching more than I have in the past week!

[Chris the Weather Man]

I think it's pretty safe to say that we're on the way into a pattern that is, if nothing else, more conducive to snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic/NE. I, for one, am definitely model-watching more than I have in the past week!

Yes. What are your thoughts for Jan 12

[donsutherland1]

Lehigh,

My post that pertained to DT was not meant to deny you credit but to inform people that they could find his discussion there. I'm sorry if it came across the wrong way. That was not my intent at all.

Don