winter has just started we many more snowstorms coming

[blizzard20]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Taunton MA
1030 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2004

Bouts of ever increasingly bitterly cold air through the 21St with snow event and some of them likely to be substantial next two weeks


Pattern: Strong +pna May be aided by increasingly -Nao next week. The upshot, while it will be v Cold Thursday and Friday (near 20 blo normal), there is the potential for a day of nearly 25 blo normal temps in sne sometime next week. For Boston that would be a high of 11 and a low of -2ish or there abouts. My confidence on this is above climo. We'll wait a while to call for that but its very much within the realm of reality. The currently fcst -2SD 500 and 850 pattern for Thursday the 8th will likely be exceeded, possibly in the period of 1/17-20 just before a possible transitional storm exit of the current pattern (unsure whether we'll break the overall pattern at that time)? for what this is Worth, can 10 day departure fcst is now becoming exceedingly cold for the coldest time of year for New England. Additionally, the mex guidance for ord on 12/27 fcst was 14 and on 1/1 was 6, warm errors respectively of 17 and 9 degs, timing of these most intense cold periods renders any succesful long range departures from the mex guidance problematic, but the idea being however that the mex is climo muted with time and we are expecting similar errors on our mex guidance the next 2 weeks and if i were venture a departure from climo assessment, blv the period after Tue of next week is potentially way to warm on at least 2 days in that avbl prd of 1/6 mex guidance in period 1/13-18.

Because of what has happened upstream near Chi and also some possible relationship in the tropical pacific convection with the N american pattern and model bias'S, logans zero threshold May be finally broken with the first blo zero since Jan 94. Again one day at a time on this. Logan Will need some snowcover and north wind drain to make it easier to go below zero.

We dont know yet what the impact of a trop cyclone heta in the S pacific on the N hemispheric pattern but we will try to ck. It appears from cursury 200 mb web analysis there May be have been some mjo impact in the usa on this most recent icestorm.

Rer 1/7/04 May be tied at bdl 1/7 at 2359EST (Thu eve) min +1 in 1912.

While its winter and we expect cold, the eventual social impact of the cold in the coldest time of the year May be significant to at least some, which includes most of the next two weeks below freezing. In the current skein, once we go blo freezing in the big cities late today, it should remain constantly blo freezing for at least 5 consec days with the next waa mild shot coming up next Monday, but then only briefly. On snow preepd shares my concerns about developments next week.


Marine update from 823 AM:
Quick update early this morning to hoist small craft advisories at
Cape Cod Bay and all of the sounds. Also, Bumped up winds across
all waters. Cold Air moving over the relatively warm ocean is
allowing for deep mixing. No changes to other periods. H frank

On wind next few days, deep excessive cold allows nearly 100 pct transfer of max wind within the layer aob 3000 Ft on the warm sst. drag


This afternoon: We are going to have squalls as first surge of
low topped convection hooked onto le plume plows eastward in a
reverse windex mode (stab decreases instead of increases following
its passage). This is well modeled on NCEP models as well as btv and
box etas and 00z/6 summ5. Sps is posted by hayden.

Wednesday: We are going to have squalls as second surge of low topped convection hooked onto le plume plows eseward in a normal windex mode (stab increases following its passage as 850 wind shifts FM W to wnw along approaching polar-Arctic front). This is well modeled on NCEP models as well as 00z/6 summ5.

Thursday: As we are for the moment but May trend even colder blo the guidance in the 4PM release with zero a possiblity at Logan. wind chill advy issuance appears probable.

Friday Into Sat: Ggem, eta and avn to an extent are of concern for snow here in sne on the mid Atlc coast low pres system. Right now we're out but that May B reentered in the aftn pkg.

Sat Night and Sunday: Bitterly cold as Quebec drain on the waiting cold. Probably undercutting mex mos significantly after 12z gfs assessment. My take is that the mex is +5 too warm Sat night and Sunday.

Monday/Tuesday: Alberta clipper of sorts, could get very complicated here 1/12-13! this is a shot at abv freezing, albiet mainly coastal Plain.

1/15, ecws? speaking of east coast winter storms, recommend a paper at the upcoming sea ams conference "evaluating potential impact of significant ecws by analysis of uppr and lw lvl wind anoms", its excceedingly helpful in longer range forecast assessments despite the climo bias of the models. And another paper that was posted in the most recent W&F on ecws related to Oct wind anomalies in th eastern pacific and N Atlc. Speaking with the author, this seasons using the NCEP reanalysis, should be a less than normal ecws, still..Pick your spots and you can have big ones, just like the blo normal hurr season of andrew. Maybe we had our big one in Dec but AM vigalent for an unfolding interesting snowstorm pattern. the gfs is coming around now after the day 7 or so on decent pops for .5 and 1" qpf. So while CDC week two still track abv normal qpf off the coast, we'll have to watch this as models attempt to block in greenland and retrogress the mean lw trof somewhat.

Box watches/warnings/advisories: CT, none. MA, none. RI, none. NH, none. marine, small craft advisory all outer waters, Cape Cod Bay, and sounds. Gale warning May be required Wednesday for all outer waters and south sounds.




Marine update, frank
public, Drag

The next three weeks will be cold with very cold air too and good likely big snowstorm for the east coast during Jan 11---16 dates. The East coast will have four snowstorms during Jan. Which could include a icestorm .

Models won't show the storm for awhile because they only good with the weather pattern change not with each storm until four days before the storm which will happen soon.

Highs for sne area only in the 20's wed then only in the teens Thurs and Friday . lows in the -10 below to 5 above during the night through sat night.

[JCT777]

Good discussion by Drag. And I would be surprised if we don't see a decent snowstorm in the next 2 weeks, given the pattern we are in.

[Colin]

I don't see any significant snow coming (at least in the next 2 weeks)...IMO, according to others also.

[JCT777]

I don't see any significant snow coming (at least in the next 2 weeks)...IMO, according to others also.

I see the optimistic version of Colin lasted for maybe an hour or two.