MY call for Friday night to Saturday

[-=BTC=-PROFESSOR]

[hurricanedude]

I think thats WAY overdone........2-3 in any one spot...probably to high as well...more like an inch or less IMO

[Suncat]

Just too dry here in NC for anything greater than an inch or so. The Triangle will likely see snow in the air, but very little on the ground, IMHO. Roads should be clear and schools may not close on Friday.

[FLguy]

I think thats WAY overdone........2-3 in any one spot...probably to high as well...more like an inch or less IMO

I agree...especially along the northern and western side of his 3-6 and 2-4 bands. theres just no way even with decent snow to liquid ratios that you ae going to get that kind of accumulation. assuming that we have 10:1 ratios you would need at least 0.30-0.60" of liquid to get 3-6" accumulations. even with the cold air in place if best omegas are not located within the dendrite layer (-12 to -15C)...that would automatically promote a lower snow to liquid ratio and less overall accumulation. heaviest totals are possible underneath CSI bands but one has no way of telling where exactly those will set up per the models (however we can analyze the areas which are best favored for banded precip in atmospheric cross sections ---- normally CSI would exist in areas where the absolute vorticity of the geostrophic flow is weak positive or slightly negative (inertial instability) seen in the cross section as areas where the slope of the theta-e surfaces is greater than the Mg surfaces or by areas of negative EPV (depending on the srength of the frontogenesis...EPV can be slightly positive and CSI can still exist within the environment... normally +0.25 is the cutoff value...as frontogenesis tends to prolong the life-cycle of CSI).

it usually takes a few hours for mature precip bands to develop in the symmetrically unstable environemnt. the atmospheric response to CSI (as shear increases in order to mix out the intertial instability) is the development of narrow cloud and precipitation bands aligned paralell to the thermal wind.

but overall IMO this is more of just a reminder to folks that winter is here instead of a big slap in the face.

[Lowpressure]

I agree in the thinking it is a little too high on accumulations. Especially the 6-8 shield. Most areas around 1 inch with 2-3 in mountians and select areas possible.

[verycoolnin]

We'll see what happends, I certainly hope this guys right with the map. There are two things that could add to precip. 1)More precip is drawn up from the gulf and into cold air over NC and VA. 2) the low rides up the coast a bit bringing NE NC and SE VA aditional inches.

I actaully believe enough moisture from the gulf will be drawn up into VA to bring SE VA 2 inches of snow Friday and into Friday night. I also think with the passing of the low bay effect snow will give Va Beach and Norfolk snow showers for Saturday possibly adding an inch.

[hurricanedude]

I have to agree with the BAY/OCEAN enhanced snow possibility over Norfolk/Va Beach....but still.....anything over an inch or 2 would shock me!!

[FLguy]

We'll see what happends, I certainly hope this guys right with the map. There are two things that could add to precip. 1)More precip is drawn up from the gulf and into cold air over NC and VA. 2) the low rides up the coast a bit bringing NE NC and SE VA aditional inches.

I actaully believe enough moisture from the gulf will be drawn up into VA to bring SE VA 2 inches of snow Friday and into Friday night. I also think with the passing of the low bay effect snow will give Va Beach and Norfolk snow showers for Saturday possibly adding an inch.

neither of which are IMO likely. with increased QPF ---- more warm air advection would have to occur as the pre-existing cold air cant hold that much moisture. as far as the system riding up the coast...given the supressed flow and very strong PJ its highly unlikely any phasing would occur to bring the system up.

[Lowpressure]

Coastal low path is key for coastal regions. If low gets too strong and stays out to sea it will suck energy out to sea quickly an accumulations will be much lighter. However, if low hugs coast and/or moves northward along the coast, higher amounts possible 2-4. NWS D.C earlier mentioned to watch the possibilty of coastal low sneaking into bay area, but said unlikely but interesting possibility.

[Anonymous]

I really like the map amounts, but unless this system brings up more moisture, amounts over N Va specifically over Woodbridge will be a dusting to an inch-------I would be surprised if I saw 2 inches of snow. The arctic airmass overhead is dry-------our current temperature is 24 with a dewpoint of 5 degrees above zero-----it will take a considerable amount of the storms' available moisture just to moisten up the atmosphere enough so that any snow can reach the ground. Not that ground temperatures are an issue here, we have frozen ground here and last night we dipped to 15 and the high today was only 31, any snow that falls will accumulate right from flake 1, but this air is so dry that a good deal of any available moisture will evaporate before it ever sees the surface.

EDIT: Make that 23 degrees now. Dewpoint 6 degrees. Nice and crisp.




ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[verycoolnin]

http://www.geocities.com/verycoolnin/

It'll be fun to see how how wrong or right I am come SAT/SUN.

[Anonymous]

It'll be fun to see how how wrong or right I am come SAT/SUN.

You map progs my region over Woodbridge exactly: I will see a couple flurries to possibly a coating of snow---------I think I will get about 5 or 6 flurries from this. I am not experienced enough, nor do I know about the exact validity of the amounts you posted for other regions, but I do like your map----together with the fact that I still do not have a clue to save my life as to how to even begin to construct such a map. Lol.



ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[verycoolnin]

I don't know what's up with the link... it didn't work. I couldn't get the image to work... so I just put the link to the index which goes to the actual Friday map... hey the image works, now it doesn't.

It's easy... just use PAINT, it comes with every computer. We should do compititions to see who's map is the closest to the actaul event. Now that I think about it, you could probally put up a blank image of the east coast and win.

[QCWx]

If that map verifies then Stormsfury is my Aunt.

[chadtm80]

If that map verifies then Stormsfury is my Aunt.

I knew there wasnt something rigth about SF.. lol j/k

[Stormsfury]

If that map verifies then Stormsfury is my Aunt.

You're safe, QC ...

1) I have the wrong equipment to be an aunt.
2) Best QPF's remain confined in a narrow band SOUTH of the NC, mainly towards the Midlands/Coastal Plains of South Carolina, and northern s/w is moisture starved, plus fighting extremely dry air ... in between the confluent zone, a slug of very dry, stable air, and the only phasing that can occur is WELL WELL out to sea.. 1-3" at best, primarily confined to the NC MTNS.

[FLguy]

If that map verifies then Stormsfury is my Aunt.

You're safe, QC ...

1) I have the wrong equipment to be an aunt.
2) Best QPF's remain confined in a narrow band SOUTH of the NC, mainly towards the Midlands/Coastal Plains of South Carolina, and northern s/w is moisture starved, plus fighting extremely dry air ... in between the confluent zone, a slug of very dry, stable air, and the only phasing that can occur is WELL WELL out to sea.. 1-3" at best, primarily confined to the NC MTNS.

this is a VERY Bizarre thread...

[Stormsfury]

this is a VERY Bizarre thread...

Yeah, very strange thread indeed...

[Anonymous]

It is only 1230am, with 7 more hours of night to go...................and we are now 16 degrees with an 11-degree dewpoint. Our low was supposed to be 17. I think we could see 12 easy, maybe even 10 degrees by 7am.

The weather is beautiful here!



-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Okay folks it just keeps getting better and better here in the Mid Atlantic tonight!!!!

We just dropped to 15 degrees!!! The dewpoint is 11 degrees. I think we have a shot at hitting 10 degrees for an overnight low.


It's so nice out tonight!!

What's not to love?!!


-ARCTIC FREEZE JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!