? Blizzard Next Weekend For The East ?

Winter Weather Discussion

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nywx
Tropical Low
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#41 Postby nywx » Sun Jan 11, 2004 12:30 am

Also the 0z GGEM has taking a track a bit further to the south than the 12z run... It will probably flip- flop until approx 4 days before the storm threatens. The 0z GFS has trended a bit to the south, but not by much as the bullseye looks to be southern NJ, SE PA and all point due E from there, of course this is just my interpretation of the model run. Looks like an interesting forecasting challenge ahead for us all.
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hurricanedude
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NWS WAKEFIELD VA

#42 Postby hurricanedude » Sun Jan 11, 2004 12:39 am

.EXTENDED...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN SOURCES OF LONG RANGE GDNC
FOR WED/THU. WTH PIECE OF POLAR VORTEX EXITING SE CANADA...AND MEAN
ERN U.S. UPR TROF AXIS RLTVLY FAR E...UPR SYSTEM LUKS TO BE IN AND
OUT QUICKLY. TRAJ AND UPR PATN WUD SUGG BEST THREAT FOR ANY PTNL
SNOW WUD BE VA AND DELMARVA ON S. KPG SNOW IN FCST. BY
FRI/SATURDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX FCSTD TO SINK INTO
GREAT LAKES AND MEAN UPR TROF AXIS MAY CONT ITS GRDL RETROGRESSION...
WHCH IF IT HAPPENS...CUD LEAD TO BETTER CHCS FOR FUTURE UPR IMPULSES
TO INTERACT WTH GOM AND GULF STREAM...NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
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#43 Postby Guest » Sun Jan 11, 2004 12:42 am

nywx wrote:Also the 0z GGEM has taking a track a bit further to the south than the 12z run... It will probably flip- flop until approx 4 days before the storm threatens. The 0z GFS has trended a bit to the south, but not by much as the bullseye looks to be southern NJ, SE PA and all point due E from there, of course this is just my interpretation of the model run. Looks like an interesting forecasting challenge ahead for us all.


Well here is the total qpf with this run of the gfs for this system. I like how it kinda follows what i say now. Hopefully it wont vary much on the next few runs. But my guess it will.

BTW i do agree Hurricanedude. Pretty good for that location. :D

Image
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StormCrazyIowan
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#44 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Sun Jan 11, 2004 1:07 am

Ohhhh.....have a look at me getting the shaft! :lol:

Some things never change!! :roll: :D

Like I should complain, we still have a full blanket of snow!
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#45 Postby Guest » Sun Jan 11, 2004 1:28 am

StormCrazyIowan wrote:Ohhhh.....have a look at me getting the shaft! :lol:

Some things never change!! :roll: :D

Like I should complain, we still have a full blanket of snow!


Now now there my Jacki. :D This has plenty of time to change. Which my guess is that it will. The finer details anyways.

No shafting yet! :D
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