Brief discussion on next weekend's potential for Southeast.

[Stormsfury]

http://www.stormsfury1.com

(My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

SF

[therock1811]

Short, but informative...great discussion SF!

[Skywatch_NC]

The thought of potential for an ice storm though over parts down here for late next weekend/early week...gives me the jItTeRs. Otherwise a great discussion, Mike!

Eric

[greg81988]

when does that threat look to come in and is it for central virginia and where did you hear that?

[breeze]

"Implications" are enough to remind me that
I need a new container of kerosene for the
Kerosun heater, in the case that back-up heat
is needed!

Thanks, Storm!

[cycloneye]

"Implications" are enough to remind me that
I need a new container of kerosene for the
Kerosun heater, in the case that back-up heat
is needed!

Thanks, Storm!

In other words heating oil prices will go up as winter gets more colder in a good chunk of the US.

[breeze]

That's a BIG 10-4, Luis! I like to keep some
on hand when they hit us with the bills - plus,
you never know when power lines might snap,
so, it's double security.

[Stormsfury]

Added an addendum portion after some consultations ... basically, more confidence in the overrunning initially, and the POTENTIAL for a MUCH bigger storm than currently being depicted by the model guidance since it's misreading both the PJ, and SBJ s/w.

SF

[verycoolnin]

I have that same feeling, the GFS predicted almost nothing out of the clipper Friday and yet it brought a few inches to NC and VA.

[Anonymous]

I very much hope you are correct, I would like to see some major snow amounts before the cold air gets here so I can savor all the plowed snow. But, life has taught me one thing if not anything else: Get too overexcited too early then get ready to hit the skids. I have learned this lesson very well over the past 20 years here.

Come Wed morning, even if Prince William County in Va (the county I live in, I happen to live in the eastern part) had severe winter storm warnings flying for 12 inches, I would still be under a caution flag for 1 to 3 inches, with an emphasis on light snow.

I am a very cautious fellow when it comes to Snow, because I live in a very BAD area for snow. I need to move to Buffalo NY but it's not going to happen so I am very, very, very, very, very, very cautious lol


-CAUTIOUS JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING THAT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

The potential is there, b/c the model biases are showing greatly ... the GFS's tendency to overdue the PJ (polar jet) and the ECMWF's only known bias, hanging way too much s/w energy back in the Southwest. The Progressive models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, Canadian all show some phasing of the northern and southern stream energy, and that's encouraging for a decent storm. The details need to be resolved, but a GOM storm should have enough cold air to work with considering the amount of arctic air that will be around to work with this weekend.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Even the ensembles members are at vastly different odds with the various members.

The common theme is a longwave trough in the East, and s/w energy in the Southwest ... otherwise, the overall uncertainty within the GFS, and CMC ensembles illustrate just how complex a pattern we're dealing with ...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/...HGT_0z/f144.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/...HGT_0z/f168.gif

Also throw the mix, the SOI indices which WERE way POS near Christmas have swung WAY NEG (currently, rebounding just slightly NEG from the -30 a few days ago. However, the prolonged NEG values MIGHT indicate the return of storminess as the PAC JET may get cranking once again.

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI
----------------------------------------------------------------
14-Dec-2003 1011.09 1007.90 -2.70 -0.84 -1.94
15-Dec-2003 1010.88 1007.10 0.20 -0.26 -2.18
16-Dec-2003 1012.74 1006.80 11.50 0.40 -2.19
17-Dec-2003 1012.48 1007.15 8.30 0.93 -2.14
18-Dec-2003 1011.25 1006.65 4.50 1.22 -2.07
19-Dec-2003 1010.96 1004.90 12.10 1.77 -1.80
20-Dec-2003 1012.01 1003.20 26.40 2.83 -1.29
21-Dec-2003 1012.76 1001.60 38.60 4.71 -0.76
22-Dec-2003 1012.06 999.80 44.30 6.99 -0.21
23-Dec-2003 1010.71 998.45 44.30 8.91 0.30
24-Dec-2003 1010.71 1001.95 26.10 10.01 0.62
25-Dec-2003 1010.89 1005.05 10.90 10.50 0.77
26-Dec-2003 1011.36 1005.80 9.50 10.71 0.96
27-Dec-2003 1012.55 1006.55 11.80 10.78 1.24
28-Dec-2003 1012.58 1008.30 2.80 10.50 1.41
29-Dec-2003 1011.76 1009.35 -6.70 9.88 1.43
30-Dec-2003 1010.43 1008.25 -8.00 9.38 1.38
31-Dec-2003 1009.23 1005.80 -1.50 9.54 1.29
1-Jan-2004 1008.34 1004.15 -1.90 9.56 1.06
2-Jan-2004 1008.79 1005.90 -8.10 8.99 0.79
3-Jan-2004 1008.68 1007.75 -17.30 8.13 0.52
4-Jan-2004 1008.44 1009.35 -26.00 7.03 0.19
5-Jan-2004 1009.04 1008.50 -19.10 6.23 -0.02
6-Jan-2004 1009.43 1006.00 -5.50 5.77 -0.03
7-Jan-2004 1010.20 1006.15 -2.60 5.81 0.03
8-Jan-2004 1009.56 1007.85 -13.60 5.58 -0.07
9-Jan-2004 1007.58 1009.10 -28.80 4.58 -0.22
10-Jan-2004 1006.39 1008.15 -30.00 3.19 -0.42
11-Jan-2004 1008.39 1006.25 -11.60 2.31 -0.57
12-Jan-2004 1009.01 1005.00 -2.80 2.17 -0.60

SF