Weather Channel Person Says...

[Anonymous]

I was flipping through the channels and happened to catch thursdays forecast for my region in the weekly planner. The person said that there would be 3-6, but more in central southern NJ. what are all your thoughts?

[WXBUFFJIM]

It could be potentially more if the ratios are higher. For example at 20:1, 1 inch of liquid would equal 20 inches of snow. Figure we see about 1/2 inch of liquid. So some areas could see more than 6 inches of snow with this. 3-6 inches widespread the way it looks right now from southern Jersey through Maryland. However any deviation in the track of this would bring significant snow north of this track or south of this track. That means anyone from State College and New York City down to Virginia Beach and Richmond need to keep an eye on this. However the low pressure track will likely support significant snow in between somewhere from Philly down to DC and Mayrland's eastern shore.

Thursday is the day for this for many areas.

Jim

[Anonymous]

do most of the models seem to say that there will be a more northerly track and bring more like 6+, and does it look like it might change?

[verycoolnin]

You seem to know as much or even more than the rest of us about this system. Why are you asking?

[Anonymous]

are you referring this question to me? I will answer anyway. Well I think that given all the information that I have read, It would most likely be same to say that the entire area would see more than 4 inches of snow. with it being so cold and the ratio being 20:1 it is a good possibility that some could see 6-12, this is entirely possible, as other have hinted. all and all we will have to wait and see. most likely watches will be issued sometime late tomorrow and or definitely tuesday. all we can do is hope for the best and prey that we see some good snow totals.

this is my 100th post

[therock1811]

Way to go 1evans!

[Anonymous]

thankyou, thankyou and hear is to many more

[Stormsfury]

One MUST be cautious when equating ratios in this situation ... yes, the QPF outputs are quite decent, and the ratios will likely be quite decent given the amount of cold air and prime dendrite growth.

However, this is a very fast moving clipper system that's progged, and some saturation must be achieved as well ... which will cut into the progged QPF's vs. actual QPF's observed. I really and honestly DOUBT that anyone gets more than 8" ... let alone 12" from this system.

SF

[Anonymous]

well than what would be your early estimate

[FLguy]

One MUST be cautious when equating ratios in this situation ... yes, the QPF outputs are quite decent, and the ratios will likely be quite decent given the amount of cold air and prime dendrite growth.

However, this is a very fast moving clipper system that's progged, and some saturation must be achieved as well ... which will cut into the progged QPF's vs. actual QPF's observed. I really and honestly DOUBT that anyone gets more than 8" ... let alone 12" from this system.

SF

remember when one has very cold air the crystal type will be LESS favorable as well for optimal ratios and less accumulation. Usually you want -16C (or there about).

and also SF you will also have additional atlantic moisture getting invloved as the system bombs out. which right now is looking like a Miller type C system.

[ColdFront77]

This system is more organized than the activity we have seen in recent days after the last two main systems.


Good job on 100 posts, 1evans. I look forward to more of your posts.

[Tip]

The 06Z ETA is only showing .25 with the Thursday storm and the GFS even less. Maybe with 20:1 snow ratios someone will get 5-6 inches in NJ. Also the ensembles are less impressive with the weekend cold shot as a cutoff low in the SW disrupts the cross-polar flow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072s.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/f132.html

[Stormsfury]

The 06Z ETA is only showing .25 with the Thursday storm and the GFS even less. Maybe with 20:1 snow ratios someone will get 5-6 inches in NJ. Also the ensembles are less impressive with the weekend cold shot as a cutoff low in the SW disrupts the cross-polar flow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072s.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/f132.html

The GFS and the CMC ensemble members are very much up at odds with each other, since various members have vastly different scenarios .. the CMC ensembles are included in this WIDE variance ... some with ridging in the East, others with troughing in the East, and holding back a second s/w, holding back the 1st southern s/w ...

Bottom line is there's a LOT of uncertainty within the model guidance itself ...

SF