Tropical Update: 14 Jan

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senorpepr
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Tropical Update: 14 Jan

#1 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jan 14, 2004 5:16 am

The tropics are still fairly quiet...

Nonetheless... we do have three invests in the southern hemisphere.

Invest 90S is located NNE of the northern-most tip of Madagascar.

Invest 91P is lcoated along and just W of the Tuamotu Archipelago... way out in the middle of the Pacific.

Invest 92P is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria... and the Northern Territory and Queensland, Australia.

All three locations are being monitored for signs of development. As it stands right now, 91P has the best chance... yet still slim... for development.

Stay tuned..........
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jan 15, 2004 12:31 am

Only changes for today is Invest 91P has been removed from the list.
JTWC says this about 90S: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 51.2E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S5 51.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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