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- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..COR MQE RER MIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
839 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS RANGE FROM -25 TO -45 DEGREES
WILL AFFECT THE REGION 10 PM THU 10 AM FRIDAY AS APPARENTLY ONE OF
THE COLDEST WIND DRIVEN AIRMASSES IN 45+ YEARS INVADES THE AREA
TONIGHT...
.PATTERN...
CROSS POLAR FEED CONTS INTO HUD BAY NEXT 10 DAYS SO DONT EXPECT A
WHOLESALE LONG TERM MUCH ABV NORMAL PATTERN ANY TIME SOON. STILL THIS
SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK WILL EASE DRAMATICALLY SAT BUT BE REINVIGORATED
MON AND TUE.
SNOW FCST MAY BE OVERDONE BUT WE'RE RIDING THIS OUT. KEY IS THE
COLD! FRONTOGENETIC AREA DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE THE FLAKES
BIGGER...PCPN MICROPHYSICS JUST WONT ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN.
ALSO WE HAVEW SUCH A COMPLEX SITN FO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WE KETP
THE WARNING GOING INTO TONIGHT TRANSFERING FROM STRATIFORM SNOW TO
CONVECTIVE... THE WIND TONIGHT AND BLOWING DRIFTING SUPPORTED OUR
ENDEAVOR. DAYSHIFT MAY WANT TO START OVER WITH A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH A WSW/NPW COMBO?
06Z GFS CONTS ON TARGET AND WE ARE CONFIDENT (80 PCT) THAT OUR POSTED
TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN 2 DEGS OF FCST. CLOUDS TWD DAWN CUD B PROBLEM
BUT THERE IS SOOO MUCH COLD AIR BELOW 4000 FT THAT WE FEEL IT WILL BE
MIXED DOWN. ETA SFC TEMPS ARE WAYYYYY TOO WARM RIGHT NOW AND GFS
CONTS THE THEME OF BARELY RISING TODAY. TEMPS WHERE OUR AIR IS
COMING FROM ARE 4-7F COLDER THAN ATTM YDY THRU MOST OF ONT AND
QUEBEC! IF ITS NOT 6 BLO IN BOS BY 10PM...THEN -12 WONT OCCUR.
GFS CONTS WITH ITS -35 COLD CORE AT 4K NR 06Z OVR BOS... WITH -26C AT
THE SFC... EVEN IF THAT DOESNT MIX DOWN HERE... ORH IS GOING TO
HAVE TO GET THIS WHICH IS -15ISH THERE AND THEN BOS WOULD COME IN
-9...BUT AM THINKING MPV WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING -10 TODAY
AND SO EDGED THE NUMBERS DOWN FOR WHAT IS ARGUEABLY THE COLDEST
850MB AIRMASS TO INVADE SNE IN 45+ YEARS...HOW MUCH TRANSLATES TO
THE SFC IN THIS WIND DRIVEN EVENT IS OF COURSE UNTESTED...SINCE ITS
RARE...BUT YOU'RE LIVING A SPECIAL EVENT FOR THESE PARTS.
YOU CAN SEE THE ETA T1 IS ALREADY TOO WARM AT BOS BY 5F.... THIS IN
MY OPINION IS A BAD SITN DEVELOPING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE CARS PARKED
OUTDOORS THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEED TO BE TRAVELING. SLUGGISH
STARTS AND GIVE IT TIME TO WARM UP IF YOU DO GET IT STARTED.
DRYGAS/CHAPSTICK/PATIENCE AND COMMON SENSE WILL GET EVERYONE
THROUGH THIS WITH MINIMUM IMPACT.
.TRAVEL...IF NOT NECESSARY THIS BLV NOT RECOMMENDED 10 PM TONIGHT
TO 10 AM FRIDAY DUE TO WIND CHILL RISKS NH E MA/RI...
PARTICULARLY RURAL AREAS AND EXPOSED HIGH TERRAIN (RIDGES).
IF ELECT TO TRAVEL BE PREPARED WITH FULL CHARGED CELL PHONE...EXTRA
WINTER GEAR IN CASE YOU NEED TO STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE IN AN
UNEXPECTED EMERGENCY. FOR E MA...THIS EVENT WILL BE THE WORST SINCE
PROBABLY 1957 FOR ORH/BOS. BDL/PVD AREAS HAVE HAD COLDER BUT WHILE
NOT HAVING CHECKED..BLV THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTER WIND AND
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THIS 3 DAY SEIGE...SITUATION WILL BE
WORSE THAN CHRISTMAS 1980 AND PROBABLY SIMILAR TO JAN 15 1957 WHEN
BOS HAD -12 AND NW WINDS OF 19KT AT ITS COLDEST TIME. TEMP SHOULD
DROP TO WITHIN 2F OF ALL TIME JANUARY RECORDS FOR BOS AREA. MORE
LATER AND WITH3F OF ORH ALL TIME JAN RECORD.
DAILY RECORDS WILL EASILY BE SHATTERED...PLS SEE BELOW IN CLIMO.
&&
.FORECAST...
YDYS FCST ON TRACK!
TOO MUCH COLD AIR UP IN ONT AND QUEBEC TO IGNORE AND CANNOT SEE THIS
MISSING...DESPITE WNW OR NW SFC WIND. THE 850 RECHARGE AS THE 500
LOBE ROATES SWD SHUD DO THE TRICK AS IT DID LAST MORNING EXCEPT THIS
AIRMASS IS SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER. GFS SFC TEMPS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
PREV RUN BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AS COLD ETA
FOUS T1 AND COLDER THAN ALL MOS. EXTREME SITN THAT IN THIS FCSTRS
OPINION HAS NOT HAPPENED SINCE 1957 (NOT NECESSARILY A 1 IN 50 YR
EVENT IF TEMP REGIMES ARE CYCLIC?). MPV 1PM TEMP SHUD BE THE LOW AT
BOS TOMORROW MORNING! YDY HIGH WAS -9...XPCT IT TO RUN COLDER THERE
THIS AFTN. MOS CANT HANDLE EXTREME SITN.
SUNDAY...ADDED A CHC OF SW AS A PART OF THE RH IN FROM S CENTRAL
USA LINKS WITH APPROACHING POLAR FRONT. THIS SITN SUN AFTN AND
NIGHT COULD GET DICEY IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUM BUT ATTM WILL PLAY AS A
CHC OF A PRD OF SNOW OR SNW SHWRS. STILL UNCERTAIN BUT THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD MORE THAN A FLURRY AS JUICE CONNECTS FROM DIXZIE AHD
OF ESEWD MOVING POLAR POOL.
MON/TUE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGS AS DECENT SHOT OF POLAR NLY FLOW
EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATOLOGY...
ORH DATABASE FOR CLI WAS CORRECTED FOR 1/13 TO ADD 1.7" OF SNOW AND
.07 TO W.E. IN THE TWO BOUTS OF SQUALLS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE ARCTIC
SURGE DURING MID AFTN.
MANY RERS FROM YDY AND YOU CAN ADD MQE +12 IN 1914 AND 1988
VULNERABLE "MINI" MAXES THU 1/15
BOS +7 1957
MQE +7 1957 AND 1965
ORH 0 1957
RECORDS 1/16/04
LOWS COLDEST HIGHS
BOS -5 1920 7 1994
ORH -12 1994 6 1994
PVD -3 1994 7 1994
BDL -8 1994 1 1994
CEF -9 1994
MQE -10 1920
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT 2 AND 3 DAY MEANS TOMORROW MORNING AS COMPARED
TO SOME SETS OF DAYS THAT WE KNOW WERE EXCESSIVELY COLD IN THE
PAST...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
1/15-16/94 1/20-21/94 1/14-15/88 1/17-18/82 1/8-9/68
839 AM EST THU JAN 15 2004
TAKE THE RAD COOLING OUT AND LOOK AT WIND DRIVEN AND YOU START
POPPING UP WITH XMAS 80 AND 1/15/57 AS MMEORABLE RECENT EXCESSES.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAIN SURGE OF WIND
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO FRI. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO
POSTED FOR ALL OUTER WATERS. NUMEROUS OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BRING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET AS WELL AS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE NE WINDS INCREASE FOR A
TIME MON INTO TUE AS ANOTHER STORM PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE WITH LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE S COAST. MOST
TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT ON
CAPE COD WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT IMPROVE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
VFR TONIGHT AND FRI...EXCEPT FOR MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO FRI.
&&
