ECMWF VERY INTERESTING for Southland/Southeast in MR...

[Stormsfury]

Conditions indicated by the ECMWF looking very promising for the Southland/Southeast with cold sprawling high pressure from Canada meeting up with a s/w from the southern stream ... more details at

http://www.stormsfury1.com/

(As usual - My forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

SF

[Stormsfury]

Furthermore, the BIG DIFF is the PV's location this go around and WHERE the cold drains southward, NOT eastward just across the MA/NE this time ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Hey SF.......what could this mean for North Carolina and Virginia?






-JEB

[FLguy]

Conditions indicated by the ECMWF looking very promising for the Southland/Southeast with cold sprawling high pressure from Canada meeting up with a s/w from the southern stream ... more details at

http://www.stormsfury1.com/

(As usual - My forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

SF

agreed. and great discussion as always.

small side note...

the cold which now confined to the northeast will begin to spread south and west with time so while the northeast will warm relative to what it has been recently (with record setting and near HISTORIC cold) things will warm up (compared to the present...not to normal) while the midwest and southeast cool relative to what it has been in the next week to two weeks.

[FLguy]

Hey SF.......what could this mean for North Carolina and Virginia?






-JEB

snow jeb...thats right snow !!

[Anonymous]

Hey SF.......what could this mean for North Carolina and Virginia?






-JEB

snow jeb...thats right snow !!

WOOOOOOO---HOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BRING IT!!!! BRING IT!!!! BRING IT!!!!!





-Snow BLITZ JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!! NO MERCY!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

Hey SF.......what could this mean for North Carolina and Virginia?

-JEB

Taken Literally, AL/GA/Carolinas look good ... with VA possibly getting into the action as well ... Best 850mb and 700mb RH's are over AL/GA (near the 850mb LOW) and a good stripe of >90% through South Carolina ... it APPEARS that this will phase offshore but hard to decipher with 3 day averages for Day 8-10 ... BUT LOOK OUT WEST, the pattern remains very similar and WHAT? Maybe another event afterwards?

The overall theme is this ... ALL the globals and the associated ensembles are progging, and portraying a return to a stormy pattern across the US ...

Notice this ... the WESTERLY burst from the KELVIN WAVE in the EPAC is now EAST of the INT DATE LINE with the MJO phase, and would also suggest (and support) the return of a stormier pattern ... notice the warmest anomalies (if you can call it warm coincide nicely to the WESTERLY wind burst).

Also, that same WEST wind course disrupts the normal trades and the decreases the cold upwelling that's been occurring across the EQ PAC ... there's a possibility that within the next month or two, we begin to see some real signs of the progged El Niño.

[Anonymous]

This is really good news. Maaan, I am kind of tired of being snowless.

I am dying to dig snow until I drop, and to take a 12-mile snowy jebwalk.

I hope we see 36 inches of snow.

BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR EXPRESS SNOW BLITZ JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FLguy]

Hey SF.......what could this mean for North Carolina and Virginia?

-JEB

Taken Literally, AL/GA/Carolinas look good ... with VA possibly getting into the action as well ... Best 850mb and 700mb RH's are over AL/GA (near the 850mb LOW) and a good stripe of >90% through South Carolina ... it APPEARS that this will phase offshore but hard to decipher with 3 day averages for Day 8-10 ... BUT LOOK OUT WEST, the pattern remains very similar and WHAT? Maybe another event afterwards?

The overall theme is this ... ALL the globals and the associated ensembles are progging, and portraying a return to a stormy pattern across the US ...

Notice this ... the WESTERLY burst from the KELVIN WAVE in the EPAC is now EAST of the INT DATE LINE with the MJO phase, and would also suggest (and support) the return of a stormier pattern ... notice the warmest anomalies (if you can call it warm coincide nicely to the WESTERLY wind burst).

Also, that same WEST wind course disrupts the normal trades and the decreases the cold upwelling that's been occurring across the EQ PAC ... there's a possibility that within the next month or two, we begin to see some real signs of the progged El Niño.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... y_ps32.gif

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

right and as long as the convection is east of 120E the STJ will not relax. meanwhile the supressed convection near 120E implies that the PNA ridge isnt going away anytime soon.

[Stormsfury]

Conditions indicated by the ECMWF looking very promising for the Southland/Southeast with cold sprawling high pressure from Canada meeting up with a s/w from the southern stream ... more details at

http://www.stormsfury1.com/

(As usual - My forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

SF

agreed. and great discussion as always.

small side note...

the cold which now confined to the northeast will begin to spread south and west with time so while the northeast will warm relative to what it has been recently (with record setting and near HISTORIC cold) things will warm up (compared to the present...not to normal) while the midwest and southeast cool relative to what it has been in the next week to two weeks.

Especially since the center of the PV currently is severely displaced over NE ... WOW, Boston already at -1º, and

MT WASHINGTON at 9 pm - -42º, wind chill -98º!!!
Northwest Winds at 81 mph, gusting to 93 mph!!!! Weather --- ICE FOG...

SF

[FLguy]

Conditions indicated by the ECMWF looking very promising for the Southland/Southeast with cold sprawling high pressure from Canada meeting up with a s/w from the southern stream ... more details at

http://www.stormsfury1.com/

(As usual - My forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

SF

agreed. and great discussion as always.

small side note...

the cold which now confined to the northeast will begin to spread south and west with time so while the northeast will warm relative to what it has been recently (with record setting and near HISTORIC cold) things will warm up (compared to the present...not to normal) while the midwest and southeast cool relative to what it has been in the next week to two weeks.

Especially since the center of the PV currently is severely displaced over NE ... WOW, Boston already at -1º, and

MT WASHINGTON at 9 pm - -42º, wind chill -98º!!!
Northwest Winds at 81 mph, gusting to 93 mph!!!! Weather --- ICE FOG...

SF

i think we should send Jeb there...lol

[Anonymous]

Conditions indicated by the ECMWF looking very promising for the Southland/Southeast with cold sprawling high pressure from Canada meeting up with a s/w from the southern stream ... more details at

http://www.stormsfury1.com/

(As usual - My forecast/Prognostic Discussions)

SF

agreed. and great discussion as always.

small side note...

the cold which now confined to the northeast will begin to spread south and west with time so while the northeast will warm relative to what it has been recently (with record setting and near HISTORIC cold) things will warm up (compared to the present...not to normal) while the midwest and southeast cool relative to what it has been in the next week to two weeks.

Especially since the center of the PV currently is severely displaced over NE ... WOW, Boston already at -1º, and

MT WASHINGTON at 9 pm - -42º, wind chill -98º!!!
Northwest Winds at 81 mph, gusting to 93 mph!!!! Weather --- ICE FOG...

SF

i think we should send Jeb there...lol

That sounds really great!

When do I leave? At least there they don't get Mickey-Mouse -15 temps!!!!

Minus 42 is decent winter weather, Nice and crisp, and I sure know I can still take MY trash out!!!! Mainers!!! Can't even deal with moderate winter Arctic Outbreaks!!!

Yeah when do we leave for Mt Washington?

No more mild highs of 36 like today!!!!!



-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR SNOW BLITZ JEB!!!!!!! BRING IT!!! NO MERCY!!!

[Stormsfury]

Sorry, Jeb ... I can't deal with THAT kinda cold ... peeing ice cubes isn't exactly my cup of tea ...

SF

[FLguy]

Hey SF.......what could this mean for North Carolina and Virginia?

-JEB

Taken Literally, AL/GA/Carolinas look good ... with VA possibly getting into the action as well ... Best 850mb and 700mb RH's are over AL/GA (near the 850mb LOW) and a good stripe of >90% through South Carolina ... it APPEARS that this will phase offshore but hard to decipher with 3 day averages for Day 8-10 ... BUT LOOK OUT WEST, the pattern remains very similar and WHAT? Maybe another event afterwards?

The overall theme is this ... ALL the globals and the associated ensembles are progging, and portraying a return to a stormy pattern across the US ...

Notice this ... the WESTERLY burst from the KELVIN WAVE in the EPAC is now EAST of the INT DATE LINE with the MJO phase, and would also suggest (and support) the return of a stormier pattern ... notice the warmest anomalies (if you can call it warm coincide nicely to the WESTERLY wind burst).

Also, that same WEST wind course disrupts the normal trades and the decreases the cold upwelling that's been occurring across the EQ PAC ... there's a possibility that within the next month or two, we begin to see some real signs of the progged El Niño.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... y_ps32.gif

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

right and as long as the convection is east of 120E the STJ will not relax. meanwhile the supressed convection near 120E implies that the PNA ridge isnt going away anytime soon.

heres the weekly averaged OLR anomalies for the period ending 1/14/04:



notice the above normal OLR anomalies over Indonesia (right near 120E) which is consistent with supressed convection...while we notice enhanced convection further east (mainly east of 180) feeding the STJ.

this was the same typoe of pattern what was observed in one of the more interesting El nino winters (1982/83):

1982:



1983:



notice how the enhanced convection remained east of 120E which fed the presistently active STJ in that winter. now dont get me wrong im not trying to create analogs here. 1982/83 was a strong El Nino winter and this IS NOT. the point is that wehn the convection is further east the STJ becomes energized. much like it was that entire winter.

notice how the reverse is the case in the 1995/96 La Nina winter:

1995:



1996:



there was MUCH more variability in 1995/96...but most of all notice how enhanced convection is located near 120E with supressed convection further east. this normally correlates to a less active STJ and heavier precipitation further north along the west coast of north america.

[Stormsfury]

WOW...

Here's the Current average 5-day mean ...


And the avg. 15-day mean ...


AND the PAC pattern from the 26th of Dec til current .. and notice that flattening of the block which also shows another thing, the return of the SBJ ...

[FLguy]

righyt which is in response to the cutoff of the convection near 120E.

once we see the area of current supressed convection move east and be replaced by enhanced convection near 120E the STJ will relax.

in this case i dont think the changes in the SOI will completely dictate the fluctuations in the STJ...though it may help to relax it slightly.

the current set-up across the equatorial PAC (relating to the MJO and the placement of areas of enhanced and supressed convection) which have made the cold shot possible.

if enhanced convection was located near 120E the PAC jet would still be cranking and the pattern would most likely be cold zonal.

[Anonymous]

Watch it guys.

PAC JET is a 6-letter very very very bad word.




-JEB

[Stormsfury]

Just noticed that the 1024 mb high in the Mid-Atlantic (Day 7) would serve to continue to keep cold air in the Carolinas, and although, the 850mb temperatures warm across the lower South Carolina region, CAD may keep the moisture as freezing/frozen depending on the depth of the colder SFC air.

SF

[FLguy]

Just noticed that the 1024 mb high in the Mid-Atlantic (Day 7) would serve to continue to keep cold air in the Carolinas, and although, the 850mb temperatures warm across the lower South Carolina region, CAD may keep the moisture as freezing/frozen depending on the depth of the colder SFC air.

SF

probably...since the models dont handle it that well...but with 850 temps above 0C and impossible to tell the depth of the cold (or below freezing) layer theres no way to tell precip type.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

but with 850 temps of only +2C across southeast SC theres a good chance that P-type would probably be FRZRA or sleet. but is really hard to say based on the low-resolution EC and the long range. were talking about 7 days out here.

[FLguy]

but also since FRZRA warms the layers closer to the surface as the precip falls into it...and strong warm advection/isentropic ascent over the cold dome we would need to see a nice ageostrophic component to counter balence that.