Good deal of Uncertainty................

[Anonymous]

Interesting read from NWS........................


000
FXUS61 KLWX 161945
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SFC HIPRES AXIS BUILDS NXT 24 HRS. H8 RDG MVS EWD TMRW...ALLWG RTN
FLOW. H7-5 MSTR SWING IN TMRW AFTN...W/ GOOD LIFT/F-VCTR FORCING.
DRY AMS WL HV TO BE MOISTENED BEFORE QPF OCCURS...BUT SHUD BE
SUFFICIENT MSTR THERE DO BE ACTED UPON FOR JUST A LTL BEFORE DAYS
END. PTYPE CUD BE A LTL INTERESTING...AS MAXT ARND/BARELY ABV FRZG
AT ONSET. ALLW FOR EVAP COOLING...AND IT CUD BE A RA/SN MIX. FOR
NOW WL KEEP IT SIMPLE AND PLAY IT AS JUST LGT SNW. BTTR CHC FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN COMES IN THE EVNG /SEE BLO/.

PRVS TEMP FCST ON TRAK...AND ONLY MINOR CHGS MADE...MAINLY TO BUMP
UPWARD ACRS HIER ELEV TMRW IN SLY FLW ALFT.
&&

.LONGER TERM...

(SAT NGT - FRI)
QUITE A STICKY SITUATION TO START OUT THE FCST. PCPN MAY HV BEGUN BY
THE TIME THE "LONG TERM" STARTS OUT. THINK PCPN WL CONTINUE TO BE SN
DURG THE EVE HRS. UNCERTAINTY LVL AT LEAST "MDT" FM MIDNIGHT ON.
QUITE COFIDENT PCPN WL BE OCCURRING...JUST WHAT FORM? ETA SHOWS
STRONG WAA AT 925 MB ON SWRLY WINDS. ONE THING I FEEL PRETTY STRONG
ABT IS LO LVL TEMPS WL RMN QUITE COLD. TO BEGIN WE'VE BEEN SO COLD
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT GRND WL BE UNABLE TO WARM MUCH. LOOKING
AT VARIOUS MDLS HV DECIDED TO RIDE THE FENCE AS FAR AS P TYPE AND GO
W/ "S-IP-ZR- LKLY" AFT MDNGT SAT NGT - FM DC S. N OF DC SUSPECT
TEMPS OFF THE SFC WL RMN AOB FRZG SO WL KEEP PCPN S-IP- LKLY.
SUSPECT AN INCH OF SN COULD FALL BY MDNGT SAT NGT ACROSS THE CWA.
HOW MUCH MORE FALLS WL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE COLUMN OF ABV FRNG AIR
- WORST CASE SCENARIO I THINK 2-4" OF SN BY SUN MRNG. OBVIOUSLY
IP-ZR- WL KNOCK THAT DOWN QUICKLY.

I ASK TV METS TO STRESS THE COLD ROAD/SIDWALK TEMPS SAT NGT..AND ANY
R THAT DOES FALL WL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIIFICULT. THIS HAS ALREADY
BEEN BRIEFED TO DC EMERG MGRS...AND SPS WL BE ISSUED. WL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FCST AND
FACT THAT WE ARE OVER 24 HRS AWAY FM PCPN ONSET.

IT IS LOOKING LIKE SFC TEMPS WL CLIMB ABV FRZG ON SUN...BUT WL KEEP
OUR FCST A COUPLE OF DEGS BLO GUINC VALUES. ASIDE FM THAT AM NOT
SEEING ANY BIG WARMUP DURG THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES BLDG IN SURG
MIDWK SHOULD BRING A GOODLY AMT OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS ANOTHER
CLIPPER ON THE HORIZON FOR THU. WL ADVRTS CHC SN IN THE NWRN PART OF
THE AREA...WHICH CAN BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

FINALLY - BON VOYAGE TO J+M MARGRAF - TWO GREAT METEOROLOGISTS. BEST
WISHES AT YOUR NEW ASSIGNMENT IN THE FZN NORTHLAND. WE'LL MISS YOU
BOTH...DONTCHAKNOW?

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC.

&&

$$
HTS/ABW







We have had a great deal of cold here for the past few days------IF ip and ZR verify, we will be literally slip-sliding away here in N VA. Hmm........maybe no SN........but that ICE will be something to be reckoned with.


Looks as if I will be running a Storm Thread come tomorrow.......hell, I might just start it tonight!!!!



-JEB