New 00z run of GFS

[aveosmth]

Hey all,

I'm looking at the GFS for days 9-10 here in SoCal and it has actually kept this massive low pressure system together.....this would be an unbelieveable system as far as wintry precip at low levels.....I know this is soooo far out (the next run probably wont have the system anywhere near us) but according to this run we could see wintry precip in L.A., San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix & Tucson.....now Im very new to this, so if anyone would care to take a look at the run that would be HIGHLY appreciated!!! I know I shouldnt get so excited because its sooooooo far away, but we never even come close to anything like this....anyway enough of my ranting & raving.....I would definitely appreciate anyone else's insights, thanks!!

Aveo

[Valkhorn]

It's done that a million times this winter. It can't handle the huge elevation differences you have over there, and it also can't handle anything out around 10 days away.

Second, it's the GFS. It does a lot of silly things all the time, and I'm afraid this is one of those times

[Chris the Weather Man]

It's done that a million times this winter. It can't handle the huge elevation differences you have over there, and it also can't handle anything out around 10 days away.

Second, it's the GFS. It does a lot of silly things all the time, and I'm afraid this is one of those times

Euro is the King.....

[aveosmth]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml

I know youre right, I've definitely heard of the GFS doing this before....but thats the latest run of the GFS above and that would be soooo beautiful

Does the Euro forecast this far out (9 days)?



Aveo

[Stephanie]

It still looks very impressive aveo, but I really can't believe that it's going to be cold enough for snow. I think that you can see there's warm air just behind the Low which wasn't there (or so close) in the previous run for that date.

I'm not sure how far the Euro goes out, but it's definately not as far as the GFS.

[WeatherGuide]

Hey all,

I'm looking at the GFS for days 9-10 here in SoCal and it has actually kept this massive low pressure system together.....this would be an unbelieveable system as far as wintry precip at low levels.....I know this is soooo far out (the next run probably wont have the system anywhere near us) but according to this run we could see wintry precip in L.A., San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix & Tucson.....now Im very new to this, so if anyone would care to take a look at the run that would be HIGHLY appreciated!!! I know I shouldnt get so excited because its sooooooo far away, but we never even come close to anything like this....anyway enough of my ranting & raving.....I would definitely appreciate anyone else's insights, thanks!!

Aveo

First rule of model browsing.... don't trust anything the GFS says past 120 hours...

[aveosmth]

Stephanie,

It looks like that warm air is just about where it was on the last run, maybe a tad bit closer.....but the thickness are even lower than the last run w/would suggest even more wintery precip.....but its still a one in a million chance....at least our local weather office has it on the radar

LONG TERM...
NEW GFS FLOPS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLGT WARMING TREND. AS RIDGE FALLS OVER ON ITS SIDE
WEDNESDAY IT DOES SET UP A MARGINAL OFFSHORE EVENT SO CANYONS COULD
LIGHT UP WITH SOME WINDS. NEAR 580 HGTS COME OVER BY FRIDAY WHICH WITH
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WOULD RESULT IN A VERY NICE DAY INDEED.

GFS HOLDING ON TO ITS IDEA OF A SUPER COLD SYSTEM A WEEK FROM MONDAY
SOMETHING TO LOOK AT.

[Valkhorn]

It's gone from the GFS now