Ignore the GFS. Look at the Euro.

[Valkhorn]

Once again the GFS is going bonkers run after run past 120 hours. I still can't understand why people are looking at it again and again for the long range, but maybe they just want quick answers. However the Euro is progging things that make much more sense, and in this winter it is doing quite well so far.

Take a look at what it has in store:

EDIT: I couldn't post the images, so here are the links

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

I'll let you judge for yourselves

[greg81988]

Could someone tell me what these maps mean?

[sertorius]

Valkhorn:

A couple things-both pretty silly!!

1. I look at the GFS like I watch a Star Wars or Star Trek movie: I know I'll never drive a land speeder or meet a Klingon or Vulcan, but it is fun to think about-same with the GFS-I know it will never verify (I've had about 4 storms for my area go bye bye!!!) but our weather has been dry and mild for the most part-boring-and our local mets really see no major changes accept the brief cool down this week that I need to dream. The GFS at least gives me something to dream about!!!

2. On the EURO maps you printed-I'm very color blind-it looks like some cold air for the central plains but not much nor much storminess-am I reading that correctly? What is your interp. for the Central Plains from the Euro? Besides being better at Latin than math, my color blindness really killed my chances of being a met-that's why I'm a Latin teacher who likes to pretend to his students that he is a met!!!

3. I've always enjoyed your posts on here and at the TWC boards!!

have a great day!!

[Valkhorn]

Hehe well it means a lot of polar air is building into Canada, including a very substantial cross polar flow.

[Stormsfury]

Better look at the ECMWF depiction of cross-polar ...

ECMWF day 7 500mb Wind streamlines ...

Northerly winds coming straight down from Canada, and being directed into the Central/Eastern US on Day 7....

SF

[sertorius]

Thanks Valkhorn-I did notice that-at least cold air is in a sold color that I can see LOL!!! We have friends and go fishing on Great Slave Lake in the NWT by Yellowknife and I check thier weather quite a bit-they have been running about 4-8 degrees below normal-that air or parts will come down some time-I just hope a. it comes south and not all east and b. it doesn't wait until March and April when we will then have cloudy, drizzle (no major rain) and temps in the high 30's to low 40's!! That really messes with the bass fishing!! Thanks again!!

[Anonymous]

You know me by now---------------------

BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




-SIBERIAN CROSS POLAR EXPRESS SNOW BLITZ JEB!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!!!!!

[sertorius]

Thanks Stormsfury-makes me wonder why our mets aren't really talking about anything??!! Thanks again

[mdguy25]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
139 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2004

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 20 2004 - 12Z SAT JAN 24 2004

...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...

...MODEL GUIDANCE...
VERY FEW DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. OVER A GOOD PART OF THE FCST
PERIOD... THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SPILT AS THE NRN
STREAM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE PLAINS/EAST AND THE SRN
STREAM ALLOWS SHORT WAVES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SWRN
US... EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A LOW. BY THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD OR DAY 6 AND 7... A PATTERN CHANGE BECOMES A BIT MORE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE CONUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE PAC NW/WEST COAST AND RETROGRADES
BACK TO THE WEST AROUND 140W... EVENTUALLY BECOMING A LONG
WAVE FEATURE. SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS WILL THEN SLIDE DOWN THE
BC/PAC NW COAST AND CARVE OUT MORE OF A WRN US TROUGH. THIS
WILL THEN ALLOW HEIGHTS TO RISE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY AND A BIT OVER THE ERN US AFTER DAY 7. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ENSEMBLES HANDLE
THE SPLIT FLOW VERY CONSISTENTLY AND POTENTIAL SHIFT IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS A
RESULT... HPC USED THE SLIGHTLY BETTER DETAILED 06Z GFS FOR
PRELIM GRAPHICS.

...12Z UPDATE...
A COUPLE TRENDS WITH THE 12Z GFS VERSUS THE PREVIOUS TWO GFS
RUNS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO DROP DOWN THE UPPER-LEVEL NWRLY
FLOW AND USHER IN THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE INTO THE NRN US ON
DAY 3-5 IS TRENDING STRONGER WITH THE CLOSED FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS OVER CANADA...
HIGHER WITH HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... MEANING MORE WAA
AND SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE OTHER TREND WITH THE 12Z GFS
IS ON DAY 6/7... WHEN THE PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY REALLY
CRASHES HEIGHTS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MUCH MORE QUICKLY
OVER THE WRN US. THIS A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A
VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN US ON DAY 7
AND STRONGER SURFACE FEATURE SLIDING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
MEANS PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NW QUICKER ON DAY 5... MUCH
COLDER TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY DAY 7 AND STRONG WAA
THROUGH THE PLAINS ON DAY 7 WITH OVERRUNNING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

FROM THE 00Z TO 06Z TO 12Z... THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
STRONGER AND MORE CLOSED OFF WITH THE SHORT WAVE DIVING
THROUGH CANADA. HOWEVER... THIS MORNING... ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SPEED
THROUGH CONUS AND NOW THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER THAN
PRELIM GRAPHICS/06Z GFS SOLUTION. USUALLY... THE BROAD FAST
NWRLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH ARCTIC AIR WOULD NOT SUPPORT A
SLOW DOWN OR THIS MUCH STRENGTHENING AND HPC CONTINUED TO
FOLLOW THE FASTER SOLUTION FROM THIS MORNING. THE TREND WITH
THE 12Z GFS HAVING A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
WRN US AND EVEN A CLOSED 500 MB LOW BY DAY 7 IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OR OUTLIER AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE
RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE PAC AND AMPLIFYING TOWARDS A LONG
WAVE FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN US... NOT ONLY ON DAY 7 BUT EVEN
FARTHER OUT IN TIME. AT THIS TIME... HPC WILL NOT BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE AS QUICKLY AND SUCH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH/CLOSED
500 MB LOW DAYS 5-7... BASICALLY STICKING CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OR 06Z SOLUTION FROM THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FINAL SUITE OF
MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCTS.

THE REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...

...CENTRAL/ERN STATES...
THE VERY DOMINATE COLD NWRLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER IN
MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST ON WED AND MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE
EAST COAST BY FRI... BASICALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION
ENTRENCHED WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MEAN TROUGH BUT NOTHING TO THE EXTREME. THIS CLIPPER WILL
MAINLY PRODUCE DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND WAA LIGHT TO MDT
SNOW... FROM THE UP MS VLY/GRT LAKES/OH VLY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GRT LAKES
ON THURS BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY.

FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY AND GULF COAST
REGION INTO FL... A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
VERY FAST SRN STREAM OR NORTH OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE THROUGH THU. THIS SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE CLIPPER AND BECOMES A
WELL PHASED CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRI. DURING THAT
TIME SPAN... LIGHT WAA AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY POINTS EASTWARD. THE
PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE RAIN BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY ON TUE... WED AND
INTO THU COULD BE SNOW OR EVEN A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DUE TO
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION.


ON DAY 6 AND 7 ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS... THE
ARCTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY... THEN BEGIN
TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIVING DOWN
THROUGH THE PAC NW STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE SHORT WAVES SHOW SOME SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT AND TIME. WAA/OVERRUNING
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE NRN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO
THE GRT LAKES.

...ROCKIES TO THE W COAST...
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ON TUES/WED DIVES THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND
CLOSES OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY THURS.
THIS CLOSED 500 MB FEATURE LINGERS OR DRIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS NRN MX ON FRI AND SAT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION REMAINS VERY STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD AND PRECIP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST/SOUTHWEST REMAINS RATHER UNLIKELY.

THE NRN TIER OF THE SHARP UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND BC COAST ON TUES... SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE PERIOD BY SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS UPSTREAM OVER THE
PAC. THE PAC NW WILL BEGIN TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE ON A
MORE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW STARTING
LATE WED. THURS THROUGH SAT... A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT... ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS DIGGING DOWN
THE BC/WEST COAST... WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
PRECIP ALONG THE PAC NW DOWN INTO NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST.
LIGHTER PRECIP WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR... EAST OF
THE WA/OR CASCADES... BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.

...AK...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL IMPACT THE SRN SECTION OF AK ON
TUES INTO EARLY THURS BEFORE THE WRN US RIDGE RETROGRADES
WEST AND SLIDES OVER MOST OF AK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL PUMMEL THE SRN
COAST/COASTAL RANGES ON TUES INTO EARLY THURS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND SNOW... LIGHTER SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL AK IN THE
COLDER AIR. THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WRN US COAST WILL THEN
SLIDE WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE THURS THROUGH SAT.
THIS WILL END THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ACTUALLY MODIFY TEMPS
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE STATE. A LARGE VORTEX WILL THEN
BEGIN TO ROTATE NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PAC ON FRI AND SAT...
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SRN AK ON SAT.

MUSHER

[Anonymous]

So the pattern retrogression will occur....................

Hmm................................

Can you say Hello to a mild or seasonal Feb/Mar in the East?

Hello, RAIN...........................



-JEB

[Valkhorn]

Re the "NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER"

I never really buy what they say. They're heavily GFS biased.

I think there _could_ be a trough in the western US, but only as a result of a trough in the middle of the country, and possible backtracking of arctic air in the rockies.

It'll get to the eastern CONUS. It may be one large shot ala 1996 but I do think it will get there.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Re the "NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER"

I never really buy what they say. They're heavily GFS biased.

I think there _could_ be a trough in the western US, but only as a result of a trough in the middle of the country, and possible backtracking of arctic air in the rockies.

It'll get to the eastern CONUS. It may be one large shot ala 1996 but I do think it will get there.

Very True. I am not very fond of their predictions........

[Anonymous]

We may have to face up to a full pattern retro scenario though.

In such a scenario, the West gets super-cold air and tons of snow, and the East has a ridge and really mild temps and periodic dousings of rain from fronts coming east as the Pac Jet goes crazy, like in late December.


Well at least we don't have any snow to lose here in the MA though. We'll just slide effortlessly into a Western trough/Eastern ridge synoptic regime.

I'd be cutting my lawn by March 15th LOL.




-JEB

[Stormsfury]

First,I have an issue with the retrogressive pattern ...

Yes, it is there ... but IMHO, the SBJ is gonna crank up, and I just don't believe right now that the low gets as cut-off as the models indicate, simply due to the fact ... TOO FAST FLOW ...

SF

[Anonymous]

First,I have an issue with the retrogressive pattern ...

Yes, it is there ... but IMHO, the SBJ is gonna crank up, and I just don't believe right now that the low gets as cut-off as the models indicate, simply due to the fact ... TOO FAST FLOW ...

SF

You've got a point there, SF



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!

[VortexMax]

First,I have an issue with the retrogressive pattern ...

Yes, it is there ... but IMHO, the SBJ is gonna crank up, and I just don't believe right now that the low gets as cut-off as the models indicate, simply due to the fact ... TOO FAST FLOW ...

SF

You've got a point there, SF


Ensembles and GFS look to be in "rough" alignment from what I can see. Retrogressive pattern leads to a breakdown of the PNA pattern (Western US/Can ridge) and a trough anchored in the SW US. However, the trough looks to be more broad-based over most of the continental US, and relatively flat over the eastern US. I don't see any evidence (yet) of a large SE ridge popping up, although this could occur transiently should a system get organized and deepen over the midwest. No evidence of that occurring yet either. I'd suspect one or more STJ driven s/w's to eject out of the SW and move ENE to the Mid Atl coast - in general terms. Whether any phase or not, is hard to project with any certianty beyond about 7 days. I'd suspect better chances of overrunning snow/sleet events that could change to rain south of NYC. Should be interesting.


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!