The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Let's hope so, all these *little* systems dropping 1-3" are just a tease, we NEED a MAJOR dump
AFDFLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON JAN 19 2004
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS MORNING OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS SHOWING AN UP SWING IN PRECIP AND MOISTURE
TO THE WEST OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA...
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF ARIZONA. 06Z GFS RUN IS SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE LIFT THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN FOR TODAY. THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOS ARE DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN FROM
THE TOP DOWN...WE WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW...HOWEVER IF WE
NEEDED TO INCREASE CHCS LATER TODAY...WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY
THEN. WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP THIS MORNING
FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD...SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SECTIONS OF OREGON. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BEGIN TO FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA
ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH TO JUST NEAR
LAS VEGAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COCONINO PLATEAU...YAVAPAI
COUNTY...AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM. EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO
OCCUR FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WITH SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODEL TRENDS PERSIST IN
STRENGTHENING THE LIFT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE LOW COMPLETELY CLOSES OFF OVER NORTHERN BAJA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THEN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. THINKING MOST ACTIVITY THIS WEEK WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE AS LAPSE RATES RUN FROM 6.5 TO 7.5 DEG C/KM. A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE COMES OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE MEAN WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HELPING TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH...AND BRING ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS ARIZONA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHC'S OF PRECIP.
Dennis
That just sounds sooo funny! 