Pattern Change Perhaps????? Stormier?

[Guest]

Well taking a little glance into the future it seems that FINALLY the pattern may be changing a little perhaps letting some areas who have been missing out on the snow finally get thier long over do turn at it instead of the same places thats been getting hammered. Thing is have to wait untill the weekend and into next week before any of that happens. Before then it looks to be the same ole with another clipper dropping into the Lakes and then the NE again on Wed/Thurs bringing another round of Light accumulating snows to these areas once again but enjoy it because after this you guys are gonna have to share with those farther to the south into the OV, MA and even farther south then that perhaps as the pattern like i said FINALLY BREAKS!!!!Not saying either that the cold will be leaving the eastern us or that a ridge will be building in with a westcost trough either because that WONT be the case. Stormsfury has a good thread about this as well so be sure to check it out. Either way expect the storm threats to pick up in earnest in the next week or two for areas father to the south then what we have been seeing since Dec or since this artic air settled into the Eastcoast especially the NE where alot of records were broken last week. The western areas of the US looks to be stormier as well especially the SW which where a big player for areas further to the east will have to keep a eye on as this feature spits out systems from the SW to the center of the nation and into the TN/OV and off the MA coast and some even taking a more southern route thru the deep south and off the se coast.

The moral of the story here is that those like myself in the OV and the MA deprived of snow should be very happy with the changes comming. Its LONG overdue! The 18z GFS run would suit me fine from begining to end more or less day 1 to day 16 however i do know that anything past day 5 i cannot expect however it does show the type of pattern i expect to develop for the lower 48 as we head towards the end of the month.............

I will have a more Technical update later for a better explaination as to why i see this happening for those that enjoy that kind of update!!!!!!

[Suzi Q]

Should I start honking yet? (please say yes!)

Shivering Southern Snow Quail

[Colin]

Well then I guess I can give up. Man this winter has been pathetic.

[Guest]

Ummm Colin did you miss the part where i said you guys in the NE and Lakes are gonna have to share with areas to the south????? That in no way implies that your not getting anymore snow.

And btw did you just get a decent event with the last system???????
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=23209

Just thought i would mention that.

[Chris the Weather Man]

YEAH! I Nor'Easters!! HOPE SO!

[Guest]

Suzi all i can say is its looking better. Cant exactly say honk yet. Have a couple of posibilities out there but have to wait and see again. Either way this kinda pattern setting up imo is better for you guys as far as wintry weather goes.

[Anonymous]

Well taking a little glance into the future it seems that FINALLY the pattern may be changing a little perhaps letting some areas who have been missing out on the snow finally get thier long over do turn at it instead of the same places thats been getting hammered. Thing is have to wait untill the weekend and into next week before any of that happens. Before then it looks to be the same ole with another clipper dropping into the Lakes and then the NE again on Wed/Thurs bringing another round of Light accumulating snows to these areas once again but enjoy it because after this you guys are gonna have to share with those farther to the south into the OV, MA and even farther south then that perhaps as the pattern like i said FINALLY BREAKS!!!!Not saying either that the cold will be leaving the eastern us or that a ridge will be building in with a westcost trough either because that WONT be the case. Stormsfury has a good thread about this as well so be sure to check it out. Either way expect the storm threats to pick up in earnest in the next week or two for areas father to the south then what we have been seeing since Dec or since this artic air settled into the Eastcoast especially the NE where alot of records were broken last week. The western areas of the US looks to be stormier as well especially the SW which where a big player for areas further to the east will have to keep a eye on as this feature spits out systems from the SW to the center of the nation and into the TN/OV and off the MA coast and some even taking a more southern route thru the deep south and off the se coast.

The moral of the story here is that those like myself in the OV and the MA deprived of snow should be very happy with the changes comming. Its LONG overdue! The 18z GFS run would suit me fine from begining to end more or less day 1 to day 16 however i do know that anything past day 5 i cannot expect however it does show the type of pattern i expect to develop for the lower 48 as we head towards the end of the month.............

I will have a more Technical update later for a better explaination as to why i see this happening for those that enjoy that kind of update!!!!!!

Thanks for the update!!

It was only 29 degrees today with refreshing 30mph gusts from the north! Currently 21 degrees and falling, 8 degree dewpoints. Low should be 12 to 15, high tomorrow 27!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH BABY!!!

Nice clear cool weather in N VA

Will look out for storms on weekend and next week, but I'll be CAUTIOUS!

New Jersey and Pennsylvania I congratualate you on your upcoming clipper! You should enjoy anywhere from 3 to 7 inches from this system. It'll be to our north, but I'm used to that now; I'll refrain from a cry lol

You guys just ENJOY THAT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You lucky dogs!!!!!

Good luck with it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


-JEB

[FLguy]

Well taking a little glance into the future it seems that FINALLY the pattern may be changing a little perhaps letting some areas who have been missing out on the snow finally get thier long over do turn at it instead of the same places thats been getting hammered. Thing is have to wait untill the weekend and into next week before any of that happens. Before then it looks to be the same ole with another clipper dropping into the Lakes and then the NE again on Wed/Thurs bringing another round of Light accumulating snows to these areas once again but enjoy it because after this you guys are gonna have to share with those farther to the south into the OV, MA and even farther south then that perhaps as the pattern like i said FINALLY BREAKS!!!!Not saying either that the cold will be leaving the eastern us or that a ridge will be building in with a westcost trough either because that WONT be the case. Stormsfury has a good thread about this as well so be sure to check it out. Either way expect the storm threats to pick up in earnest in the next week or two for areas father to the south then what we have been seeing since Dec or since this artic air settled into the Eastcoast especially the NE where alot of records were broken last week. The western areas of the US looks to be stormier as well especially the SW which where a big player for areas further to the east will have to keep a eye on as this feature spits out systems from the SW to the center of the nation and into the TN/OV and off the MA coast and some even taking a more southern route thru the deep south and off the se coast.

The moral of the story here is that those like myself in the OV and the MA deprived of snow should be very happy with the changes comming. Its LONG overdue! The 18z GFS run would suit me fine from begining to end more or less day 1 to day 16 however i do know that anything past day 5 i cannot expect however it does show the type of pattern i expect to develop for the lower 48 as we head towards the end of the month.............

I will have a more Technical update later for a better explaination as to why i see this happening for those that enjoy that kind of update!!!!!!

Yep...your exactly right king.

the STJ isnt going away anytime soon as long as the MJO related enhanced convection is east of 120E. but notice how the supressed convection near 120E is now beginning to move east into areas where the enhanced convection has been for the past few weeks.



once the enhanced convection gets back in there near 120E...it should fortell the arrival of the PAC jet.

[FLguy]

and even with that said king --- i do suspect that you will see a major snow event. probably some time in mid or late FEB

[Anonymous]

Even more than sh!t or fook or @ss,

PAC Jet is a very, very naughty word here in the Mid Atlantic.

Clean out that mouth with soap, and swish with copious amounts of water! Spit vigorously.


-JEB

[FLguy]

Even more than sh!t or fook or @ss,

PAC Jet is a very, very naughty word here in the Mid Atlantic.

Clean out that mouth with soap, and swish with copious amounts of water! Spit vigorously.


-JEB

its more of a double-edged sword. when the PAC jet duels with a -NAO things get very interesting in the eastern part of the country. snow wise at least.

[FLguy]

Well taking a little glance into the future it seems that FINALLY the pattern may be changing a little perhaps letting some areas who have been missing out on the snow finally get thier long over do turn at it instead of the same places thats been getting hammered. Thing is have to wait untill the weekend and into next week before any of that happens. Before then it looks to be the same ole with another clipper dropping into the Lakes and then the NE again on Wed/Thurs bringing another round of Light accumulating snows to these areas once again but enjoy it because after this you guys are gonna have to share with those farther to the south into the OV, MA and even farther south then that perhaps as the pattern like i said FINALLY BREAKS!!!!Not saying either that the cold will be leaving the eastern us or that a ridge will be building in with a westcost trough either because that WONT be the case. Stormsfury has a good thread about this as well so be sure to check it out. Either way expect the storm threats to pick up in earnest in the next week or two for areas father to the south then what we have been seeing since Dec or since this artic air settled into the Eastcoast especially the NE where alot of records were broken last week. The western areas of the US looks to be stormier as well especially the SW which where a big player for areas further to the east will have to keep a eye on as this feature spits out systems from the SW to the center of the nation and into the TN/OV and off the MA coast and some even taking a more southern route thru the deep south and off the se coast.

The moral of the story here is that those like myself in the OV and the MA deprived of snow should be very happy with the changes comming. Its LONG overdue! The 18z GFS run would suit me fine from begining to end more or less day 1 to day 16 however i do know that anything past day 5 i cannot expect however it does show the type of pattern i expect to develop for the lower 48 as we head towards the end of the month.............

I will have a more Technical update later for a better explaination as to why i see this happening for those that enjoy that kind of update!!!!!!

Yep...your exactly right king.

the STJ isnt going away anytime soon as long as the MJO related enhanced convection is east of 120E. but notice how the supressed convection near 120E is now beginning to move east into areas where the enhanced convection has been for the past few weeks.



once the enhanced convection gets back in there near 120E...it should fortell the arrival of the PAC jet.

although right now if i had to take a stab at it i would say that based on the MJO the PAC jet arrives around the first of FEB

[Anonymous]

All I have to say is, whatever it takes, -NAO dueling the PAC Jet or whatever, please snow, PLEASE hit Woodbridge severely!!! Please shut down N VA for three weeks!!!!

Please give me my precious snowy jebwalks!!!



-JEB

[FLguy]

jeb --- read the dates that i gave in my winter outlook update threads.

[Johnny]

Will this pattern change send any arctic air into the Deep South? I know this question has been asked many of times but we have yet to get a good blue norther down this way or wintry precip for that matter. What are y'all seeing? Thanks.

[Anonymous]

What it would take to get a blue norther down your way Johnny is for a storm to run up the Appalachians (i.e., an Inland Runner). Such a storm would bring the cold straight down south to you. That isn't in the cards just yet, but I would not be surprised if it does before winter is over.



-JEB

[therock1811]

Oh man...please let this happen! I can postpone summer vacation for a while...don't think that's a bad idea lol..............

[Miss Mary]

I receive wx email updates from a local met, at Fox's channel #19 here. His latest update hints at several systems and a more stormy pattern setting up.

Here's his update, for anyone interested. I will caution you this Met is a little too enthusiastic at times.

_________________________

From Channel 19's Meteoroligist Rich Apuzzo
http://www.wxix.com/

It’s another chilly day across the Tri-State and as expected, some mid
and high level clouds are moving across the area.  After lows in the
low teens this morning, we will struggle into the middle 20s for highs
this afternoon.  Typically we should see highs in the upper 30s for
the second half of January.

I am watching numerous weather features that will affect our weather in the
coming weeks, and there are strong signs of atmospheric conditions
favoring a major Midwestern snow storm in the next two weeks.  I
will have more on that in a moment.

In the short term, a weak storm system will race across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley regions Wednesday night and early Thursday with increasing
winds and some light snow or snow showers.  I don’t expect any
accumulations, but this storm will reinforce the cold air already in
place, and highs Thursday will only be in the mid 20s, with upper 20s to
near 30 on Friday. Skies Thursday and Friday will be much like we’re
seeing today…a mixture of sun and clouds with steady northwest winds.

A second storm will take shape this weekend, and once again we will face
the threat of light snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.  This storm
will probably focus its energy on Sunday, unlike last weekend’s storm
which brought the wintry mix on Saturday.  Clouds will increase with
light snow possible on Saturday.  On Sunday the atmosphere above us
will warm enough to allow rain to fall, but cold air near the ground is
stubborn and if the temperatures remain near or below freezing, a messy
wintry mix will develop.  We’ll have to watch this one carefully as
the week progresses.

Right on the heels of the weekend storm, a new, stronger storm is expected
to develop across the Rockies and western Plains states.  This one
promises to tap both the large reservoir of cold air in Canada and the
abundant moisture in the Gulf of Mexico, and the morning model guidance
is showing light rain changing to heavy snow by next Tuesday
evening.  A new blast of arctic air immediately follows that storm,
and if this system develops as expected, there will be a lot of wind and
blowing snow next Wednesday.  Oh, and get this…a fourth storm is
expected by the end of next week, and it looks very impressive as well.

Now, I must point out that when you’re looking at storms 7 to 10 days away,
they almost always look more impressive than they turn out to be since
they have not even developed yet and models don’t have the ability to
accurately establish the path and strength of the storms before they move
into the United States.  However, as I mentioned early in this
email, there are signs of change in the atmosphere and a major storm
seems likely in the next few weeks.

I will have more on the changing weather tonight on the Ten O’Clock News!

Have a great day!
Rich Apuzzo 


SKYEYE WEATHER: An informational web site with weather links and a great
monthly newsletter:  http://www.skyeyeweather.com

CURRENT TEMPERATURE IN CINCINNATI:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ ... nty=ohc061

NATIONAL RADAR:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNati ... e&pid=none

REGIONAL RADARS:
Cincinnati:   http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kiln.shtml
Indianapolis:   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kind.shtml
Louisville:   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... klvx.shtml

NATIONAL SATELLITE PICTURE: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... S_irbw.jpg

MIDWEST VISIBLE SATELLITE:  http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... VV_vis.jpg

OR HERE IF THE ABOVE IS NOT AVAILABLE:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conus.html

STORM PREDICTION CENTER:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

DETAILED WEATHER DISCUSSIONS: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

MOON PHASES:
http://www.googol.com/moon/moonctrl.pl.cgi

OR: http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/vphase.html
OR: http://www.ameritech.net/users/paulcarl ... endar.html

CLIMATE DATA:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/climate.htm

 

********** THE MODELS I USE **********
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

http://152.80.49.210/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/

http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/





+ Check out the CARSTAR Location Nearest You!
http://files.raycommedia.com/wxix/71615 ... ormat=Text


Get Rich Apuzzo's latest forecast on FOX19's Ten o'clock News, home of
Triple Doppler 19.

____________________________

Mary

[sertorius]

I am kind of excited about this-models do have something comming into the central plains next week and finally we have some local mets talking about winter weather for next week-in fact, one who has been in this area since 1982, said to enjoy the warm weekend and get the snow shovels ready for next week. I know it is a long ways away, and the way this winter has been it will prob. all go east, but at least there is discussion about it!! maybe winter will come and stay for dinner and an overnight instead of the few snacks it has come here for so far this winter!!! Onlly time will tell-but we have not had a good winter here since 2000-2001 and it was 95-96 before that. Also, we just need moisture-any kind!!!! have a great day!!!