DEEP SOUTH ....... all aboard.

[Below N.O.]

I know it is outside of 10 days and yes, it is the GFS but this is something that several locals have hinted about even before this run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324m.gif

Below N.O.

[PTrackerLA]

That's an interesting run and with TWC showing snow showers in some forecasts we could have something here. Hopefully the rumored arctic blast transpires, that's the first step to snow down here!

[bfez1]

Snow??? Did I hear the "S" word????

[Below N.O.]

Some of our local MET's in the New Orleans area are starting to talk about the possibility of SNOW. One who admits that he hates the cold and is usually conservative said "This looks like it could be the first real opportunity, since the snow on the Northshore a couple of years ago (about 3 inches fell in Folsom, tangipahoa as I recall)

Below N.O.

[SacrydDreamz]

NWS isn't aboard.. let's see if they come around tomorrow AM..

[Phyde]

Newbie question - what exactly do you see on that map?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Yeah, the very beginning of February looks like it could be very interesting for the Deep South. We'll see. Obviously things will be much clearer next week!

[OtherHD]

Hasn't the GFS been saying this for the past month?

[vbhoutex]

Newbie question - what exactly do you see on that map?

That map, at least as it displayed this am shows very cold weather all over the Western US west of the Rockies coming out of N Central Canada with a couple of low pressure areas and related precipitation areas. In the West, if that verifies (and there is more to look at than just that map to find consistency amoung the models), there could be snow over large areas of the W and SW. That whole area would be moving E and bringing some of the same to the Deep South plains with a building storm over NM and TX panhandle also spreading snow to its' N and NE as well as it moves E or NE.

[bfez1]

Some of our local MET's in the New Orleans area are starting to talk about the possibility of SNOW. One who admits that he hates the cold and is usually conservative said "This looks like it could be the first real opportunity, since the snow on the Northshore a couple of years ago (about 3 inches fell in Folsom, tangipahoa as I recall)

Below N.O.

What Met are you referring to? Bob Breck?

[gboudx]

Bonnie, I think Below is referring to David Bernard from WWLTV. This is David's comment copy/paste from wwltv.com weather board.
******

That's always the issue. Very rarely do we have the combination of arctic air and an active southern stream. However, that's how we usually get snow almost 100% of the time.

This looks like it could be the first real opportunity, since we had the snowstorm on the northshore a couple years ago (about 3inches fell up in Folsom, Tangipahoa as I recall)

Before that, I think we have to go back to 1989..that was the last time we had measurable snow in New Orleans. Houma had several inches that time.

Even the pattern goes as extreme as it could, then I would not be surprised to see some type of winter event over South Louisiana. I hate cold, for the record.

[bfez1]

This is going to be so exciting to keep a watch on!!!

[gboudx]

Remember it was originally forecasted for beginning of Feb. That's a long ways off to get excited about. First step will be to see if any of that forecasted arctic air actually makes it down this far next week. So far, I've seen nothing from New Orleans NWS in their daily discussions that hint at it. They don't seem to go out on a limb too much.

[Below N.O.]

Remember it was originally forecasted for beginning of Feb. That's a long ways off to get excited about. First step will be to see if any of that forecasted arctic air actually makes it down this far next week. So far, I've seen nothing from New Orleans NWS in their daily discussions that hint at it. They don't seem to go out on a limb too much.

gboudx,
I'm not surprised, the NWS will be the last to forcast the arctic air coming all the way down. But already WWLTV on their seven day forecast are starting to show on day 6 & 7 (Wed & Thur) next week high around 50
and lows in the 30's. while the other stations all have it warm in the 60's for that same period. The others usually jump on board after a couple of days.
The ECMWF day 8-10 - 3 day avg. is showing a huge trough and VERY COLD air coming all the way down south.
Go to the Thread by STORMSFURY called:
ECMWF day 10....HOLY CRAP!!.....COLD!!


Below N.O.

[gboudx]

The BR stations also have it in the 60's next week. Hopefully WWL can do an "I told you so". If this outbreak continues to verify, I'm betting the NWS and local Mets will start squawking about it over the weekend.

You get NO or BR local news over in Thibodaux?

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
423 AM CST THU JAN 22 2004
CUT-OFF LOW WILL LINGER OVER BAJA/NW MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER THAN
AVN/GFS SHOWING. HOW DECIDED TO RIDE WITH ETA/ECMWF/CANADIAN THIS
CYCLE...DELAYING EJECTION OF UPPER LOW...ONSET MAIN PRECIPITATION
EVENT...AND WARMER TEMPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR UNTIL UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST... AND QPF (1/4 TO
3/4 INCH) ACROSS THE CWA...MAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY DUE TO JET
DYNAMICS AND PVA PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK...INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN WARMER WEDNESDAY AS STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST. BY LATE THURSDAY A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR OVERTAKES THE CWA WITH QUITE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 75

[Below N.O.]

The BR stations also have it in the 60's next week. Hopefully WWL can do an "I told you so". If this outbreak continues to verify, I'm betting the NWS and local Mets will start squawking about it over the weekend.

You get NO or BR local news over in Thibodaux?

I think the real cold is poised to come down around the 31st and thereafter.

We get 3 Baton Rouge and 3 New Orleans stations on basic cable.